Russian earnings: the great divergence — fuel retail and fintech surge while coal and chemicals crater

This season's Russian earnings painted a picture of two economies: one turbocharged by consumer demand and digital services, the other dragged down by weak commodity prices and sanctions. The median revenue growth spread between the best and worst sectors was a staggering 69 percentage points — from +42.7% for fuel retail to -26.4% for coal. The winners are domestic-focused, high-margin, and often tech-enabled; the losers are export-oriented, capital-intensive, and cyclical. This is not a market for passive sector bets — it's a stock-picker's paradise.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Fuel retail and fintech are on fire, but the real heat is in medicine and IT

The standout is Evrotrans, a fuel retailer, with revenue up 42.7% year over year and a 3-year CAGR of 60% — yet trading at a P/E of just 1.2x and EV/EBITDA of 2.6x. That's a value trap or a gift, depending on your view of Russian consumer spending. In fintech, MTS Bank is the growth star: revenue surged 64.9% and net profit jumped 157.9%, with a P/E of 2.3x. Sovcombank also impressed with revenue up 71.9% and net profit up 57.2%, at 4.0x earnings. In medicine, Promomed is the breakout: revenue up 75.2%, EBITDA up 92.5%, net profit up 149.3%, and still a reasonable 11.7x P/E. These are companies growing at 40-70% while trading at single-digit multiples — the market is pricing in a cliff that hasn't arrived.

Coal, chemicals, and metals are in the gutter — and the worst is yet to come

At the other extreme, Raspadskaya (coal) saw revenue collapse 26.4% and net profit swing to a loss of -349.6% — an unmitigated disaster. Chemicals are not far behind: Phosagro's revenue fell 17.5%, net profit crashed 99.5%, and Acron's net profit dropped 81.5% despite a modest EBITDA gain. Metals are bleeding too: Severstal's net profit turned negative (-112.7%) on revenue down 14.9%, while Mechel's EBITDA went deeply negative (-149.2%) and net profit fell 119.9%. The common thread is exposure to global commodity prices and, in the case of coal and some chemicals, sanctions and logistics constraints. These sectors are not just cyclical — they are structurally challenged in the current environment.

The plot twist: Aeroflot's profit collapse hides a revenue story that's still flying

The biggest surprise is Aeroflot: revenue grew 5.7% year over year, but EBITDA collapsed 39.6% and net profit swung to a loss of -144.3%. That's a massive margin squeeze, likely from fuel costs and fleet maintenance. Yet the 3-year revenue CAGR of 29.7% shows the underlying demand is there. The twist? Despite the ugly bottom line, the stock trades at a P/E of 2.1x and EV/EBITDA of 3.0x — the market is pricing in a recovery that hasn't started. Meanwhile, SCF Group (shipping) accelerated from -12.8% to +33.5% revenue growth, with EBITDA up 81.1% and net profit up 119.9% — a sharp turnaround that few saw coming.

Cheap or expensive? The market is paying up for tech but ignoring cash machines

The valuation dispersion is extreme. On the cheap side, FGC UES trades at a P/E of 0.5x and EV/EBITDA of 2.0x, yet revenue is up 21.8% and net profit exploded 274.0% — that's absurdly cheap for a regulated utility with growth. EL5-Energo is even more extreme: P/E of 1.3x, EV/EBITDA of 1.2x, with revenue up 24.5%. On the expensive side, OZON trades at 43.6x earnings and 10.9x EV/EBITDA despite growing revenue 47.8% — the market is paying a huge premium for e-commerce growth that may not justify it. Similarly, Inkab Holding (fiber optic cable) trades at 84x P/E with revenue down 17.8% — that's a stock priced for a miracle, not a business.

Income: double-digit yields are hiding in plain sight

For income investors, the standout is Evrotrans with a P/E of 1.2x and EV/EBITDA of 2.6x — implying a dividend yield that could be in the high teens if the payout ratio is maintained. FGC UES at 0.5x earnings and TNS energy at 2.3x P/E with EBITDA up 86.8% also look like yield traps that are actually paying. The market is so pessimistic on these names that even a modest payout ratio would produce a double-digit yield. But beware: some of these 'cheap' stocks are cheap for a reason — check the cash flow before you chase the yield.

The long view: 3-year CAGRs separate the compounders from the value traps

Look beyond the quarter, and the compounders are clear: APRI (developer) has a 3-year revenue CAGR of 157.5%, GLORAX (construction) 96.3%, and ArenaData (IT) 52.0%. These are businesses that have more than doubled revenue every year for three years — yet APRI trades at 8.1x P/E and GLORAX at 3.4x. The market is treating them as cyclical, but the growth is structural. On the flip side, M Video has a 3-year CAGR of -6.9%, and Raspadskaya -15.6% — these are value traps where 'cheap' is just a mirage. The lesson: in this market, growth at a reasonable price is still the best strategy, but you have to be selective.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the domestic demand story can withstand the ongoing pressure on real incomes and the central bank's tight policy. If fuel retail, fintech, and IT continue to grow at 20-40% while commodity sectors stagnate, the divergence will only widen. Watch for signs of margin recovery in metals and chemicals — if global prices stabilize, the current pessimism could be a buying opportunity. But for now, the market is rewarding domestic growth and punishing export exposure. The next quarter will tell us if this is a trend or a trap.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)