Gold miners and power grids break away as steel and construction sink

This season's defining split is not between oil and tech but between companies riding volume and price upside and those still digesting the 2024-2025 cost shock. Mining and electricity delivered the widest spread: the mining median rose 30.1% year over year while metallurgy fell 10.8%, a 41-point gap. Construction and chemicals also contracted, with medians of -4.5% and -4.7%. The market is rewarding volume and pricing power and punishing anything tied to domestic capex or export tariffs.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Gold and power grids delivered the cleanest upside

The mining median of +30.1% is not a single-name fluke. Seligdar posted revenue +46.5%, EBITDA +145.6% and net profit +257.3%, while Yuzhuralzoloto grew revenue +90.5% and EBITDA +197.2%. Even Nornickel, the diversified giant, lifted revenue +12.6% and net profit +108.4%. In electricity, IDGC South was the standout with revenue +150.0%, EBITDA +233.6% and net profit +425.4%, and Rushydro added revenue +18.9% with net profit +90.1%.

The breadth matters as much as the headline. Six of the seven IDGC subsidiaries reported double-digit revenue growth, and Rosseti Moscow Region grew revenue +22.2% with net profit +46.5%. This is a sector where regulated tariffs and volume recovery are finally flowing through to the bottom line.

Steel and construction are the season's warning sign

Metallurgy's -10.8% median is ugly across the board. Severstal saw revenue -10.1%, EBITDA -27.9% and net profit -61.2%; NLMK reported revenue -11.6% and net profit -54.3%; TMK was the worst with revenue -36.9% and EBITDA -78.0%. Construction is no better: Samolet's revenue fell 31.3% and EBITDA 39.9%, while PIK declined 11.6% in revenue with net profit down 54.1%. These are not one-off misses; they are a capex and demand cycle turning down.

The plot twist: Lukoil's profit surge is the outlier nobody priced

Oil and gas as a sector grew just 3.5% in revenue, but Lukoil accelerated from an unspecified prior period to revenue +8.0%, EBITDA +93.3% and net profit +387.3%. That is a genuine surprise in a sector where Gazprom's net profit fell 9.8% and Rosneft's dropped 18.4%. The divergence suggests Lukoil's downstream and trading mix is doing heavy lifting while peers are squeezed by export economics.

Cheap for growth: Sberbank and Sovcombank screen as value traps or bargains

Sberbank trades at 3.5x earnings while growing revenue 22.5% and net profit 18.6%. Sovcombank is even cheaper at 2.9x P/E with revenue +70.4% and net profit +158.2%. Both look mispriced if growth holds. At the other extreme, Ozon trades at 35.9x earnings with revenue +47.8% but EBITDA -181.0% and net profit -222.6% — priced for perfection in a business still burning cash. Diasoft at 23.0x P/E with revenue -2.8% and net profit -77.3% is expensive for the wrong reason.

Income: FGC UES and Inter RAO offer yield with growth

FGC UES looks like the income play of the season: P/E 0.5x, EV/EBITDA 1.7x, with revenue +16.3%, EBITDA +28.5% and net profit +50.2%. Inter RAO at P/E 1.7x and EV/EBITDA 0.3x is even cheaper on cash flow, though its net profit fell 17.2%. For a value investor, these are the names where the market is paying you to wait.

The long view belongs to ArenaData and Positive: three-year revenue CAGRs of +52.0% and +30.9% respectively, yet both trade at single-digit EV/EBITDA multiples (5.3x and 6.2x). If the IT cycle holds, these are the compounders hiding in plain sight. Watch the next two quarters for whether the growth deceleration in some IT names (Head Hunter at 0.0% revenue) spreads — that is the key risk to the value case.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)