Chips feast while gas starves: the AI capex boom splits US earnings

This season's defining fault line is not growth versus stagnation but silicon versus molecules. AI cloud infrastructure posted a median +283.2% revenue year over year, and data-centre connectivity semiconductors rose +104.5%, while natural gas and NGL exploration fell -35.7%. The same capital cycle that is minting chip and power winners is crushing gas-levered producers, and the spread between the top and bottom industry medians is over 300 percentage points.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

The AI capex chain is the only game in town

Nebius delivered +454.0% revenue growth, the fastest in the dataset, though its EBITDA fell -80.0% and net profit dropped -132.6% — growth bought at a heavy operating cost. CoreWeave grew revenue +112.5% with EBITDA up +132.3%, but net profit fell -115.9%. The picks-and-shovels layer is cleaner: Micron's revenue rose +256.3% with a P/E of just 11.6x, and Nvidia grew revenue +105.9% with EBITDA +122.8% and net profit +125.9%.

The second derivative is just as striking. Credo Technology grew revenue +114.7% with EBITDA +95.3%, Astera Labs +104.5% with EBITDA +126.0% and net profit +199.0%, and Lumentum +109.3%. Even the optical and test names joined in: Applied Optoelectronics rose +86.4%, Sitime +126.5%, and Kulicke & Soffa +122.6%. This is not a single stock story; it is an entire supply chain re-rating at once.

Gas producers are the casualty of the same boom

The weakest names are concentrated in natural gas. CNX Resources saw revenue fall -35.7%, EBITDA -43.9% and net profit -53.1%. EQT, despite sitting in the oil and gas exploration bucket, posted revenue -29.2%, EBITDA -38.0% and net profit -73.0%. Comstock Resources fell -24.9% on revenue with net profit down -93.0%, and Range Resources slipped -11.3% with EBITDA -25.2%. The gas tape is ugly, and the market is pricing it that way: CNX trades at 5.7x earnings and EQT at 12.8x.

The plot twist: oil E&Ps are printing cash while gas collapses

The surprise is not that AI is booming but that oil-focused E&Ps are delivering growth that would make a software company blush. SM Energy grew revenue +215.3%, EBITDA +255.2% and net profit +431.1%. Chord Energy rose +84.0% on revenue with net profit +234.7%, Canadian Natural Resources +71.6% with net profit +85.4%, and Devon Energy +63.5% with net profit +112.6%. The US oil and gas exploration median of +32.9% masks a violent split: oil is accelerating while gas decelerates. SM Energy trades at 9.5x earnings and 4.8x EV/EBITDA — cheap for that growth.

Cheap for growth: the market is paying up for AI but not for oil

Valuation is the payoff for the value-focused reader. Micron grows revenue +256.3% yet trades at 11.6x earnings and 8.8x EV/EBITDA; Super Micro grows +77.8% at 8.9x P/E and 4.5x EV/EBITDA; SM Energy grows +215.3% at 9.5x P/E and 4.8x EV/EBITDA. At the other end, Palantir grows +92.8% but trades at 156.0x earnings — priced for perfection. AMD grows +50.1% at 131.4x P/E and 88.2x EV/EBITDA, and Bloom Energy grows +137.2% at 103.4x P/E and 86.9x EV/EBITDA. The market is paying up for the story and ignoring the cash flow.

Income is scarce, but telecom and autos offer yield

Dividend yields are thin in this dataset, but a few names stand out. Charter Communications trades at 2.8x earnings and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with a revenue decline of -1.7% — a deep-value cable play. Verizon trades at 11.7x earnings and 7.6x EV/EBITDA with revenue -0.7%, and AT&T at 11.4x P/E and 7.3x EV/EBITDA with revenue +5.3%. These are not growth stories, but for income seekers they offer cash flow at a discount. Auto and consumer names like McDonald's (20.1x P/E) and Home Depot (22.3x P/E) offer modest yields with stable growth.

The long view: three-year CAGR separates the builders from the survivors

Over three years, the standouts are Nebius with a +239.8% revenue CAGR, Micron at +104.6%, and Nvidia at +100.0%. Super Micro's +76.3% and Robinhood's +48.8% also impress. But the warning signs are there: Intel's three-year CAGR is -5.7% and Qualcomm's is +0.1% — the old guard is not participating in the boom. The market is rewarding the new builders and punishing the incumbents. Watch the capex guidance from the hyperscalers next quarter: if it holds, the chip and power trade has legs; if it cracks, the gas collapse will look like a preview.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)