
Gazprom is Russia's state-controlled gas producer and exporter and the owner of the unified gas supply system; it also runs oil (Gazprom Neft) and power generation businesses.
Sector: Oil & Gas
RU_GAZP
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB USD | Operating profitB USD | D&AB USD | EBITDAB USD | Net profitB USD | Operating CFB USD | Capex + M&AB USD | AssetsB USD | EquityB USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Q2 2026 (3M) | OK | 35.1 y/y 14.8% | 8.2 y/y 69.9% | 4.7 y/y 0.0% | 12.9 y/y 35.4% | 7.8 y/y 63.9% | 6.1 | -8.1 | 460.5 y/y 7.4% | 276.8 y/y 6.0% | 11.4% | 7954.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2026-03-31 | Q1 2026 (3M) | OK | 39.3 y/y -0.3% | 8.6 y/y 27.1% | 5.2 y/y 4.3% | 13.7 y/y 17.5% | 5.3 y/y -45.9% | 14.4 | -680.1 | 456.2 y/y 6.7% | 270.3 y/y 5.0% | 7.9% | 7740.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | Q4 2025 (3M) | OK | 36.5 y/y -19.0% | 3.0 y/y 500.0% | 9.5 y/y -16.6% | 12.6 y/y 5.3% | 2.3 y/y -36.5% | 12.2 | 3114.3 | 447.3 y/y 3.9% | 265.0 y/y 7.0% | 7.2% | 7934.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-09-30 | Q3 2025 (3M) | OK | 30.5 y/y -9.8% | 3.8 y/y -32.6% | 8.9 y/y 60.4% | 12.7 y/y 13.7% | 2.1 y/y — | 7.9 | -1365.4 | 441.2 y/y 4.4% | 262.2 y/y 6.8% | 1.1% | 7716.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | Q2 2025 (3M) | OK | 30.6 y/y -5.6% | 4.8 y/y -12.3% | 4.7 y/y 0.0% | 9.6 y/y -6.6% | 4.8 y/y -18.8% | 6.9 | -504.5 | 428.9 y/y 4.5% | 261.2 y/y 6.0% | 7.4% | 7552.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-03-31 | Q1 2025 (3M) | OK | 39.4 y/y 1.1% | 6.7 y/y -23.6% | 4.9 y/y 245.3% | 11.7 y/y 14.1% | 9.7 y/y 2.5% | 13.2 | -1287.8 | 427.7 y/y — | 257.5 y/y — | 15.4% | 7197.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | Q4 2024 (3M) | OK | 45.1 y/y 39.3% | 0.5 y/y 108.4% | 11.4 y/y 79.2% | 11.9 y/y 3458.9% | 3.7 y/y 179.7% | 13.0 | -10.5 | 430.5 y/y 6.9% | 247.7 y/y 7.3% | 7.5% | 7797.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-09-30 | Q3 2024 (3M) | OK | 33.8 y/y 682.2% | 5.6 y/y — | 5.6 y/y 43.2% | 11.2 y/y — | -0.5 y/y -144.2% | 16.0 | -767.4 | 422.4 y/y — | 245.4 y/y — | -0.3% | 7635.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | Q2 2024 (3M) | OK | 32.4 y/y — | 5.5 y/y — | 4.7 y/y — | 10.2 y/y — | 5.9 y/y — | 3.0 | -12.1 | 410.5 y/y — | 246.4 y/y — | — | 7502.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-03-31 | Q1 2024 (3M) | PARTIAL | 39.0 y/y — | 8.8 y/y — | 1.4 y/y — | 10.2 y/y — | 9.5 y/y — | 3.0 | — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | 6553.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | Q4 2023 (3M) | OK | 32.4 y/y — | -6.0 y/y — | 6.4 y/y — | 0.3 y/y — | -4.6 y/y — | 9.9 | -11.3 | 402.7 y/y — | 230.7 y/y — | — | 7056.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-09-30 | Q3 2023 (3M) | PARTIAL | 4.3 y/y — | — y/y — | 3.9 y/y — | — y/y — | 1.2 y/y — | 7.7 | -9.0 | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | 6303.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | Q2 2023 (3M) | OK | 25.4 y/y — | 3.4 y/y — | 6.5 y/y — | 9.9 y/y — | -0.1 y/y — | 9.6 | -1187.8 | 385.7 y/y — | 237.0 y/y — | — | 87.9 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 14 248 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 73 662 |
| Net debt | 87 911 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.7x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
FCF (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.40x | 1.67x | — | 1.89x | 2.13x |
| accruals, % of assets | -3.2% | -3.4% | -10.0% | -3.8% | -4.8% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Oil & Gas (gas)
| Year | Production, bcm |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 409.33 −1.6% |
| 2024 | 416 +15.9% |
| 2023 | 359 |
Gazprom FY2025 gas output 409.33 bcm incl. JV share (405.4 bcm excl.), -2.6% YoY (Interfax citing Gazprom). FY2024 ~416 bcm. Detailed segment/reserve disclosure curtailed post-2022.
Potential discount −18% (factor 0.82)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 8 253spot vs LTM +13%
Gazprom model, three legs: Gazprom Neft (28.5% of group EBITDA, priced by the same oil model), domestic gas on the SPIMEX national index, and a small TTF export leg. The previous map gave TTF a 0.50 weight: since mid-2023 the correlation of quarterly EBITDA levels with TTF is −0.22, and with domestic gas +0.65.
USD/RUB: spot 85 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.08 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). Oil & gas upside may be overstated: mineral-extraction tax / export duty rise with price but costs are not re-priced here.
Upside (conservative): +48% · spot +123% · 3-yr -27%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 10.08 trn RUB |
| EBITDA | 3.70 trn RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 6.38 trn RUB |
| 2 · Group EBITDA structure | |
| Gazprom Neft (oil & refining) | 28.5% |
| Domestic gas | 66.5% |
| Export hub gas (TTF) | 5.0% |
| 3 · Prices | |
| SPIMEX gas, RUB per '000 m3 — spot / LTM | 7,107 RUB / 7,289 RUB |
| TTF, $ — spot / LTM | $904.3 / $443.1 |
| 4 · EBITDA projection: three legs | |
| Oil leg (Gazprom Neft) | 878.9 bln RUB |
| Domestic gas leg | -61.5 bln RUB |
| Export gas leg | 225.6 bln RUB |
| = Spot EBITDA | 4.74 trn RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 3.47 trn RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 4.11 trn RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 2.8x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 11.46 trn RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | 7.95 trn RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 3.51 trn RUB |
| Current market cap | 2.37 trn RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +48%
Current 2.8x · 3-year 75th pct 13.0x
Dividends suspended (~4.0 yr without a payout)
The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 1348 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 100% |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 51.03 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 0.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| = Fair dividend yield | 12.0% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 99.64 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | — |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | — |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
Expected IRR: +43% (bear +19% … bull +79%)
price in 3 years 294 ₽ (+193% к 100 ₽); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.08 trn | 10.56 trn | 11.09 trn | 11.68 trn |
| Revenue growth | — | +5% | +5% | +5% |
| EBITDA | 3.70 trn | 4.11 trn | 4.11 trn | 4.11 trn |
| EBITDA margin | 36.7% | 38.9% | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| less D&A | 2.02 trn | 2.08 trn | 2.14 trn | 2.21 trn |
| EBIT | 1.68 trn | 2.03 trn | 1.97 trn | 1.90 trn |
| less net interest | — | 1.07 trn | 762.2 bn | 591.0 bn |
| less tax | — | 240.4 bn | 301.4 bn | 327.5 bn |
| Net profit | — | 721.2 bn | 904.2 bn | 982.4 bn |
| Capex | — | 2.08 trn | 2.14 trn | 2.21 trn |
| Capex to revenue | — | 19.7% | 19.3% | 18.9% |
| Free cash flow | — | 721.2 bn | 904.2 bn | 982.4 bn |
| Net debt | 7.95 trn | 6.38 trn | 5.48 trn | 4.50 trn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.1x | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.1x |
| Dividend per share | 51.03 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ |
| Yield on current price | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Related-market prices (Frontier spot model) gazp_v2: EbitdaE = LTM EBITDA + 0.96 × (модель Газпром нефти: Urals + экспортный крек) + 0.665 × EBITDA × Δ% газа СПбМТСБ + 0.050 × EBITDA × Δ% TTF в рублях. Прежняя карта давала TTF вес 0,50: корреляция EBITDA с TTF с с | 35% | +5% · +5% · +4% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY -5%; acceleration +0.0pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 27% | -0% · +3% · +4% |
| Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 7) Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена | 38% | +8% · +7% · +7% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 2.79x (2.23x…4.08x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 2.8x, three-year median 3.3x). Re-rating to 4.1x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 413 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 79% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 100% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Dividends | suspended — zero in the model |
| Year-3 EBITDA margin target | 38.1% |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-08-31 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | quality multiplier 0.82 — flags: no_distributions; the model's dividend is cut 18% by penalties measured on distributions |
| Line | model | analysts | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Консенсус, houses: 7.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027 | |||
| Revenue | 10.56 trn | 10.87 trn | 0.97x |
| EBITDA | 4.11 trn | 3.41 trn | 1.20x |
| Net profit | 721.2 bn | 1.25 trn | 0.58x |
| 2028 Консенсус, houses: 3.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028 | |||
| Revenue | 11.09 trn | 11.22 trn | 0.99x |
| EBITDA | 4.11 trn | 3.52 trn | 1.17x |
| Net profit | 904.2 bn | 1.28 trn | 0.71x |
The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5 | 15% | 1.15x | 60% |
| EBITDA | 4 | 29% | 0.85x | 25% |
| Net profit | 3 | 91% | 0.56x | 0% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 712 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 148 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 215 ₽. Dropped as broken: eninvs DividendPrediction (5.963e-07)
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 51.03 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 15.24 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 16.61 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 8.04 ₽ | |
| 2017 | 8.04 ₽ | |
| 2016 | 7.89 ₽ | |
| 2015 | 7.20 ₽ | |
| 2014 | 7.20 ₽ |
| Period | Ex-date | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 q4 | 2022-10-07 | 51.03 ₽ |
| 2020 q3 | 2020-07-14 | 15.24 ₽ |
| 2019 q3 | 2019-07-16 | 16.61 ₽ |
| 2018 q3 | 2018-07-17 | 8.04 ₽ |
| 2017 q3 | 2017-07-18 | 8.04 ₽ |
| 2016 q3 | 2016-07-18 | 7.89 ₽ |
| 2015 q3 | 2015-07-14 | 7.20 ₽ |
| 2014 q3 | 2014-07-15 | 7.20 ₽ |
| 2013 q2 | 2013-05-09 | 5.99 ₽ |
| 2012 q2 | 2012-05-08 | 8.97 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 50% buy — balanced5d: 53% buy — balanced20d: 51% buy — balanced
No iceberg levels detected last session.
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 2 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 5 lots ×159 appearances across 78 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×473, ask ×400.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.09 | 50% | 0/0 | 2/1 | 32,420 |
| 23.09 | 50% | 13/30 | 8/8 | 100,637 |
| 22.09 | 57% | 27/16 | 6/7 | 91,790 |
| 21.09 | 54% | 5/9 | 6/5 | 76,656 |
| 18.09 | 51% | 18/35 | 10/13 | 83,202 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 10 (7 positive, 1 negative), last 30 days: 30 (19 positive, 1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 32 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 29.06.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) 29 июня 2026 года пройдет годовое собрание акционеров ПАО 'Газпром', на котором не будут объявлены и выплачены дивиденды по итогам 2025 года. Кворум по всем вопросам повестки дня был обеспечен, а годовой отчет и финансовая отчетность за 2025 год были утверждены. |
| 10.09.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «Газпром» утвердил Долгосрочную программу развития на 2027-2036 годы. Все 11 членов совета проголосовали за, кворум был соблюден. |
| 08.05.26 | Buyback | Приобретение эмитентом собственных голосующих акций (долей) или депозитарных расписок на акции эмитента ПАО «Газпром» приобрело 342,5 тыс. голосующих акций, увеличив свою долю до 342,5 тыс. акций. Приобретение произошло на основании решения Арбитражного суда от 13.03.2026. Дата приобретения акций - 04.05.2026. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Disclosed in the top-10 of 7 of 17 funds, ≈4,5 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 1, trimmed — 1.
| Fund | Manager | Weight | ≈Position | Δ weight m/m | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынка | Брокеркредитсервис | 8.88% | 29 млн ₽ | +0.63 pp | 31.07.2026 |
| TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржи | Т-Капитал | 8.78% | 1,2 млрд ₽ | — | 31.07.2026 |
| EQMX ВИМ - Индекс МосБиржи | ВИМ Инвестиции | 8.66% | 1,1 млрд ₽ | — | 31.07.2026 |
| SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акций | Первая | 8.58% | 1,7 млрд ₽ | -0.69 pp | 31.07.2026 |
| AMRE АТОН – Российские акции + | Атон-менеджмент | 8.47% | 69 млн ₽ | — | 31.07.2026 |
| SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035 | Первая | 5.40% | 9 млн ₽ | — | 31.07.2026 |
| TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рублях | Т-Капитал | 2.40% | 439 млн ₽ | — | 31.07.2026 |
Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Gazprom — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | Volume, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ГазпромБО7 | float | float | — | — | put 07.2025 |
| ГазпромБ22 | float | float | — | — | put 07.2025 |
| ГазпромБ23 | float | float | — | — | put 07.2025 |
| ГазпромБ19 | float | float | — | — | 10.2043 |
| ГазпромБ20 | float | float | — | — | 10.2043 |
YTM and turnover from MOEX; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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