ID_TPIA: 9M 2026 revenue up 60.5% but net profit down 83.1% – growth paid for with margin

ID_TPIA's 9M 2026 report showed revenue of USD 8,189.2 mn (+60.5% YoY), net profit of USD 279.8 mn (-83.1%) and net debt of USD 3,131.2 mn as of 30 September 2026. Revenue growth did not convert into profit: the net margin fell to 3.4% from 32.4% a year earlier. With EV/EBITDA LTM at 121.3 and net debt/EBITDA LTM at 41.8, the share looks unattractive at the current price.

Key takeaways

— 9M 2026 revenue grew 60.5% to USD 8,189.2 mn, but net profit fell 83.1% to USD 279.8 mn

— The net margin compressed to 3.4% from 32.4% a year earlier – growth was paid for with margin

— Net debt rose from USD 1.5 bn on 30 September 2025 to USD 3.1 bn on 30 September 2026 (+USD 1.6 bn)

— Operating cash flow for 9M 2026 was USD 378.9 mn, with capex consuming part of that flow

— Net debt/EBITDA LTM at 41.8 – leverage is high, with EBITDA LTM of only USD 74.9 mn

— EV/EBITDA LTM of 121.3 – valuation is outside a reasonable range for a company with falling profit

— Trailing 12-month dividend yield of 0.79% does not compensate for the risk of falling profit

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

9M 2026 revenue grew 60.5% to USD 8,189.2 mn, but net profit fell 83.1% to USD 279.8 mn

Revenue for the reported period reached USD 8,189.2 mn, 60.5% above the 9M 2025 level. That growth looks strong on paper, but it was not accompanied by profit growth: net profit was USD 279.8 mn, down 83.1% YoY.

The gap between revenue and profit dynamics indicates that revenue growth was achieved through factors that do not reach net profit. The company scaled up, but costs grew faster than income, which led to the profit decline.

For an investor, this gap is what matters: the scale of the business increased, but the ability to generate profit weakened. Without disclosure of the cost structure in the facts, the specific cause cannot be named, but the fact of falling profit alongside rising revenue is the key signal of the report.

The net margin compressed to 3.4% from 32.4% a year earlier – growth was paid for with margin

The net margin for 9M 2026 was 3.4% versus 32.4% in the same period a year earlier. A drop of almost 29 percentage points is not a fluctuation but a structural shift in the economics of the business.

With revenue of USD 8,189.2 mn, net profit of USD 279.8 mn means the company operates on a very thin margin. Each dollar of revenue brings only a few cents of profit, and any pressure on costs or prices quickly pushes the result into negative territory.

This margin compression explains why 60.5% revenue growth did not translate into profit growth. The company effectively traded profitability for volume, and the question is whether this is a temporary price of expansion or a new sustainable level of economics.

Net debt rose from USD 1.5 bn on 30 September 2025 to USD 3.1 bn on 30 September 2026 (+USD 1.6 bn)

Net debt as of 30 September 2026 was USD 3,131.2 mn. A year earlier, on 30 September 2025, it was USD 1.5 bn, meaning net debt grew by USD 1.6 bn over 12 months.

Debt also rose over the quarter: from USD 3.0 bn on 30 June 2026 to USD 3.1 bn on 30 September 2026 (+USD 0.1 bn). Rising debt alongside falling profit means the company is funding its operations and growth with borrowed money.

The net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio is 41.8. At this level, debt servicing requires a significant portion of operating profit, while EBITDA LTM itself is only USD 74.9 mn. High leverage limits financial flexibility.

Operating cash flow for 9M 2026 was USD 378.9 mn, with capex consuming part of that flow

Operating cash flow for 9M 2026 was USD 378.9 mn. This is a positive figure, but it is significantly below revenue and does not cover the company's needs for capital expenditure and debt servicing.

Capex is not disclosed in the facts for the reported period, but its presence means free cash flow is lower than operating cash flow. With net profit of USD 279.8 mn and operating cash flow of USD 378.9 mn, the difference between them is small, indicating modest cash flow quality.

For a company with rising debt, the ability to generate free cash flow is critical. If operating cash flow does not cover capex and interest, the company will have to increase debt further, which creates risk at the current leverage level.

Net debt/EBITDA LTM at 41.8 – leverage is high, with EBITDA LTM of only USD 74.9 mn

The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing 12 months is 41.8. This means it would take almost 42 years of current EBITDA to repay the debt, indicating extremely high leverage.

EBITDA LTM is only USD 74.9 mn on LTM revenue of USD 10,100.0 mn. The EBITDA margin LTM is less than 1%, which is extremely low for a company with such revenue and indicates that most income goes to operating expenses.

High leverage combined with low EBITDA creates refinancing risk. If market conditions worsen or interest rates rise, the company may face difficulties servicing its debt, which directly affects the share price.

EV/EBITDA LTM of 121.3 – valuation is outside a reasonable range for a company with falling profit

EV/EBITDA LTM is 121.3. Such a multiple means an investor pays USD 121 for every dollar of EBITDA, which is extremely high for a company with falling profit and high leverage.

The company's market capitalisation is USD 6,412.4 mn, and net debt is USD 3,131.2 mn. With EBITDA LTM of USD 74.9 mn, the valuation looks inflated relative to the business's ability to generate profit.

For comparison with its own history, the facts do not provide a 3-year average multiple, so it cannot be said whether the share is above or below its historical level. However, the absolute value of 121.3 in itself indicates that the market is pricing in very optimistic expectations for future profit growth.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield of 0.79% does not compensate for the risk of falling profit

The trailing 12-month dividend yield is 0.79%. This is a low level that does not even cover current inflation and is significantly below the yield on risk-free instruments.

With net profit down 83.1%, the company's ability to sustain dividend payments is weakening. If profit continues to fall, the dividend may be cut or cancelled, putting additional pressure on the share.

For an income-oriented investor, the current dividend yield of 0.79% is not attractive. The main risk is a further decline in profit and, consequently, a reduction in payments.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is revenue growth of 60.5% to USD 8,189.2 mn, but it did not convert into profit: net profit fell 83.1% to USD 279.8 mn, and the margin compressed to 3.4%. Net debt rose to USD 3,131.2 mn, and its ratio to EBITDA LTM is 41.8 with EBITDA LTM of only USD 74.9 mn. The EV/EBITDA LTM of 121.3 looks inflated for a company with falling profit and high leverage. The verdict is unattractive: the risk of further profit decline and debt burden outweighs revenue growth.