O'KEY: revenue declines, EBITDA plunges 45.6%, debt load reaches 4.36x

On August 17, 2026, O'KEY Group released its results for the first half of 2026. Revenue declined 3.6% year-on-year, EBITDA fell 45.6%, and EBITDA margin contracted from 17.6% to 9.9%. This review examines what is behind the operational deterioration, how debt has changed, and why dividends remain at zero.

Key takeaways

— Revenue for the half-year declined 3.6% – to RUB 140.7 billion over the last 12 months, but operational efficiency fell more sharply

— EBITDA for the half-year plunged 45.6%, margin compressed to 9.9% from 17.6% a year earlier

— Net loss for the half-year was 8.4% of revenue versus 0.2% a year earlier

— Net debt rose RUB 7.5 billion over the quarter, but declined RUB 6.2 billion over the year

— Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 4.36, reflecting high leverage

— No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payouts going forward

— Shares fell 2.3% after the report; the market saw no reasons for optimism

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue for the half-year declined 3.6% – to RUB 140.7 billion over the last 12 months, but operational efficiency fell more sharply

In the first half of 2026, O'KEY's revenue declined 3.6% year-on-year. Over the last 12 months (LTM), revenue stood at RUB 140.7 billion. The revenue decline itself is not catastrophic, but it occurs against a backdrop of a sharp deterioration in operational metrics.

The 3.6% revenue decline is accompanied by a 45.6% plunge in EBITDA for the same period. This means the company failed to offset lower sales with cost cuts, and operational efficiency suffered much more than the top line.

EBITDA for the half-year plunged 45.6%, margin compressed to 9.9% from 17.6% a year earlier

EBITDA for the first half of 2026 fell 45.6% year-on-year. EBITDA margin contracted from 17.6% to 9.9% over the same period. This is a sharp deterioration in operating profitability, not explained solely by lower revenue.

The margin compression of more than 7 percentage points points to rising costs that were not offset. The cause could be higher purchase prices, logistics, or other operating expenses, but it is not disclosed in the report. For shareholders, this is a signal that the business has become significantly less efficient.

Net loss for the half-year was 8.4% of revenue versus 0.2% a year earlier

Net margin for the first half of 2026 was minus 8.4%, versus nearly zero – minus 0.2% – a year earlier. This means the company is generating a significant net loss relative to revenue.

A loss of 8.4% of revenue is a consequence of the operational decline and, likely, higher interest expenses on debt. However, the exact structure of the loss is not disclosed in the provided data. For a company with a negative net margin, dividend payments become unlikely.

Net debt rose RUB 7.5 billion over the quarter, but declined RUB 6.2 billion over the year

As of the latest balance sheet date, net debt stood at RUB 56,773.2 million. Compared to the previous reporting date, it rose by RUB 7.5 billion, but over the last 12 months it declined by RUB 6.2 billion. This indicates that the company increased debt in the latest quarter, but on an annual basis leverage is decreasing.

The quarterly debt increase could be related to working capital needs or financing losses. However, without additional data, the exact reason cannot be identified. Importantly, the debt level remains high, as confirmed by the 4.36 ratio.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 4.36, reflecting high leverage

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 4.36. This is a high level, indicating significant leverage. For comparison, EV/EBITDA for the same period is 5.33, which also suggests the market values the company with its debt in mind.

A high ratio of 4.36 means the company would need more than four years of EBITDA to repay net debt. This creates risks for financial stability, especially if operational metrics continue to deteriorate. However, the direction of the ratio's change is unknown, as the previous value is not provided.

No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payouts going forward

Over the last 12 months, the company paid no dividends – RUB 0.0 per share. Our model also estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share. This is unsurprising given the negative net margin and high debt.

The fair yield for this stock, in our view, is 12.0%, but with zero payouts it is unattainable. The implied payout ratio is 0.13 of profit, but with no profit it is practically meaningless. For investors seeking dividend income, this stock is currently unsuitable.

Shares fell 2.3% after the report; the market saw no reasons for optimism

The closing price before the report was RUB 40.71. On the release day, shares rose 0.4%, but from the release to August 17, 2026, they fell 2.3%. The market, judging by the dynamics, assessed the results as negative.

The company's market capitalization is RUB 12,686.7 million, which, at an EV/EBITDA of 5.33, indicates that investors are pricing in the continuation of current weak operational metrics. If EBITDA continues to fall, the multiple may prove overvalued.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: O'KEY showed a weak half-year – revenue declined, EBITDA plunged, and net margin went deeply negative. Debt leverage remains high, and dividends are absent. There are no strong points in the report, except for some annual debt reduction. The key question for a holder is whether the company can halt the decline in operational efficiency and start generating profit; otherwise, the debt burden will become critical.