Exxaro: profit down 21%, but 8.9% dividend yield holds the stock

25 августа Exxaro раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 7,5%, EBITDA прибавила лишь 0,4%, а чистая прибыль упала на 21,1% из-за роста издержек и слабой ценовой конъюнктуры. На этом фоне акция торгуется с P/E 7,2 и дивидендной доходностью 8,9%, что выглядит привлекательно, но наша модель оценивает потенциал снижения в 47%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +7.5% did not save EBITDA: cost growth ate almost all the gain

— Net profit -21.1%: margin fell from 20.1% to 14.8%

— Debt rose by 12.3 bn RUB in six months, but debt-to-EBITDA remains negative

— Dividend yield of 8.9% is above average, but cash flow does not cover payouts

— Our model values the stock 47% above fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, ZAR bn

Revenue +7.5% did not save EBITDA: cost growth ate almost all the gain

In H1 2026, Exxaro's revenue grew 7.5% YoY, to 43,300 million ZAR in the trailing twelve months. However, EBITDA over the same period rose only 0.4%, indicating that almost all the revenue gain was absorbed by higher operating costs.

EBITDA margin fell from 27.1% to 25.2% in the half-year. This means the company could not fully offset higher raw material and logistics costs despite higher sales volumes.

Net profit -21.1%: margin fell from 20.1% to 14.8%

Net profit for H1 2026 fell 21.1% YoY, and net margin dropped from 20.1% to 14.8%. The profit decline was deeper than the EBITDA decline, indicating additional factors: possibly higher interest expenses or currency losses.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was 6,689 million ZAR, which at the current market cap gives a P/E of 7.2. This is a low multiple, but it reflects the deterioration in profitability.

Debt rose by 12.3 bn RUB in six months, but debt-to-EBITDA remains negative

Net debt on the latest balance sheet was minus 11,493 million ZAR, meaning the company has a net cash position. However, over the last six months debt rose by 12.3 billion ZAR, and over 12 months by 13.4 billion ZAR, indicating increased borrowing.

Net debt to EBITDA over the trailing twelve months is minus 1.58, reflecting a continued net cash position. Despite the debt increase, the company remains financially sound.

Dividend yield of 8.9% is above average, but cash flow does not cover payouts

Over the trailing twelve months, the dividend yield was 8.9%, above the market average. However, operating cash flow over the same period – 8,400 million ZAR – is less than the total dividends implied by the yield and market cap.

This suggests the company is likely funding dividends through debt or cash reserves, which cannot continue indefinitely. The sustainability of payouts becomes a key question for shareholders.

Our model values the stock 47% above fair value

According to the portal's model, with EBITDA re-priced to current commodity prices and a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the downside potential for the share is 47% from the current market cap. This means the market values the company significantly above fair value according to our calculations.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple over the trailing twelve months is 5.0, which does not look excessive, but the model accounts for future declines in coal prices and rising costs, which worsen the outlook.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Exxaro отчиталась за первое полугодие 2026 года с ростом выручки на 7,5%, но EBITDA практически не изменилась, а чистая прибыль упала на 21,1% из-за сжатия маржи. Компания сохраняет чистую денежную позицию, но долг растёт, а операционный денежный поток не покрывает дивидендные выплаты. При текущей цене акция торгуется с P/E 7,2 и дивидендной доходностью 8,9%, однако наша модель указывает на потенциал снижения 47%. Вердикт: скорее непривлекательно – доходность не компенсирует ухудшение операционных показателей и риск сокращения дивидендов.