Spinneys: revenue accelerated to +6.9%, but profit leans on a weak year-ago base
Contents
In its Q3 2026 report Spinneys posted revenue of AED 830.9m, EBITDA of AED 141.1m and net profit of AED 52.9m. Revenue growth accelerated to +6.9% year on year from -1.6% a quarter earlier, while net profit rose 22.2% – largely because the year-ago quarter was weak. The company holds net cash of AED 679.6m and trades at EV/EBITDA of 5.1 against its own three-year average of 8.6. Our conclusion: rather attractive – the portal model implies +23% upside to fair value. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +23%.
Our view: is there upside
Our view in numbers
| Metric | Our read |
|---|---|
| Verdict | Rather attractive |
| Upside on the portal model | +23% |
| How the model works | fundamental value-creation model: EBITDA growth times the target multiple, against market cap |
| EV/EBITDA now and 3-year average | 5.1 vs 8.6 – a 41% discount to its history |
| Dividend yield, 12m | 5.7% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | -0.80 – net cash |
| Strongest case for | EV/EBITDA of 5.1 is a 41% discount to its own three-year average of 8.6, and the portal model implies +23% upside. |
| Strongest case against | Quarterly free cash flow is only AED 14.7m, and 22.2% profit growth rests on a weak year-ago base. |
| What would change the view | If revenue growth exceeds 10% year on year next quarter, the verdict could move up to 'attractive'. |
Key takeaways
— Revenue accelerated to +6.9% year on year from -1.6% a quarter earlier, but remains below the pace of the first half
— EBITDA rose 8.3%, and the 17.0% margin came in slightly above last year's 16.8%
— Net profit grew 22.2% against 8.3% EBITDA growth – the gap came from a weak year-ago base
— Free cash flow for the quarter was only AED 14.7m: operating cash flow of 37.7m was almost entirely absorbed by capex of 23.0m
— Net cash of AED 679.6m equals 0.8x annual EBITDA – there is no debt burden
— Dividend yield of 5.7% on payouts the company can fund from profit
— EV/EBITDA of 5.1 is a 41% discount to its own three-year average of 8.6, and that is the main argument for the stock
Key figures, AED bn
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0.78 | 0.83 | +6.9% |
| EBITDA | 0.13 | 0.14 | +8.3% |
| Operating profit | 0.06 | 0.06 | +14.1% |
| Net profit | 0.04 | 0.05 | +22.2% |
| Operating cash flow | 0.10 | 0.04 | -61.2% |
| Capex | 0.04 | 0.02 | -35.8% |
| EBITDA margin | 16.8% | 17.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 6.4% | +0.8 pp |
Revenue accelerated to +6.9% year on year from -1.6% a quarter earlier, but remains below the pace of the first half
In Q3 2026 Spinneys' revenue was AED 830.9m, up 6.9% year on year. That is an acceleration from Q2, when sales fell 1.6% year on year. The pace is still slower than in Q1 2026, when growth was 11.9%.
Quarterly dynamics are uneven: after AED 1,014.2m in Q1 and 895.1m in Q2, third-quarter revenue was the lowest of the year. This is typical retail seasonality, and the year-on-year comparison shows the company has returned to growth after the Q2 decline.
Over the trailing twelve months revenue was AED 3,800.0m. The third-quarter growth matters more for the trend than the absolute level: it confirms that the Q2 slump was one-off rather than the start of a sustained slowdown.
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
| Period | Measure | bn AED |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | Revenue | 0.926716 |
| Q1 2025 | Revenue | 0.9064589999999999 |
| Q2 2025 | Revenue | 0.909669 |
| Q3 2025 | Revenue | 0.777256 |
| Q4 2025 | Revenue | 1.053375 |
| Q1 2026 | Revenue | 1.014191 |
| Q2 2026 | Revenue | 0.895147 |
| Q3 2026 | Revenue | 0.830942 |
| Q4 2024 | EBITDA | 0.203436 |
| Q1 2025 | EBITDA | 0.17614499999999997 |
| Q2 2025 | EBITDA | 0.18199 |
| Q3 2025 | EBITDA | 0.130217 |
| Q4 2025 | EBITDA | 0.224925 |
| Q1 2026 | EBITDA | 0.18240699999999999 |
| Q2 2026 | EBITDA | 0.183142 |
| Q3 2026 | EBITDA | 0.14105700000000002 |
EBITDA margin
| Period | Measure | % |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | EBITDA margin | 22.0 |
| Q1 2025 | EBITDA margin | 19.4 |
| Q2 2025 | EBITDA margin | 20.0 |
| Q3 2025 | EBITDA margin | 16.8 |
| Q4 2025 | EBITDA margin | 21.4 |
| Q1 2026 | EBITDA margin | 18.0 |
| Q2 2026 | EBITDA margin | 20.5 |
| Q3 2026 | EBITDA margin | 17.0 |
EBITDA rose 8.3%, and the 17.0% margin came in slightly above last year's 16.8%
EBITDA for Q3 2026 was AED 141.1m, up 8.3% year on year. EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth, so the EBITDA margin rose to 17.0% from 16.8% a year earlier.
Operating profit for the quarter was AED 64.2m. The gap between EBITDA and operating profit is depreciation, which remains significant for a retail chain with its own property and equipment.
The 0.2 percentage point margin improvement is small but steady: it means the company kept cost growth below sales growth. Over the trailing twelve months EBITDA was AED 845.1m.
Net profit by quarter
| Period | Measure | bn AED |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | Net profit | 0.112043 |
| Q1 2025 | Net profit | 0.088608 |
| Q2 2025 | Net profit | 0.085705 |
| Q3 2025 | Net profit | 0.04325 |
| Q4 2025 | Net profit | 0.123842 |
| Q1 2026 | Net profit | 0.091589 |
| Q2 2026 | Net profit | 0.090622 |
| Q3 2026 | Net profit | 0.052859 |
Net profit grew 22.2% against 8.3% EBITDA growth – the gap came from a weak year-ago base
Net profit for Q3 2026 was AED 52.9m, up 22.2% year on year. Profit growth clearly outpaced EBITDA growth of 8.3%, and the reason is the comparison base: in Q3 2025 profit was only AED 43.3m on revenue of 777.3m.
The net margin rose to 6.4% from 5.6% a year earlier. Part of the gap between EBITDA and net profit is depreciation and taxes, but the accelerated profit growth on modest EBITDA growth points to a weak year-ago base rather than a one-off gain in the reported quarter.
Over the trailing twelve months net profit was AED 358.9m. The net margin for that period is about 9.4%, above the quarterly level, because profit was seasonally high in Q4 last year.
Net debt
at each reporting date, current net debt / EBITDA (LTM) = -0.8
| Period | Measure | bn AED |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | Net debt | −0.05391 |
| Q1 2025 | Net debt | −0.236298 |
| Q2 2025 | Net debt | −0.09943300000000001 |
| Q3 2025 | Net debt | −0.07282 |
| Q4 2025 | Net debt | −0.103533 |
| Q1 2026 | Net debt | −0.11966299999999999 |
| Q2 2026 | Net debt | −0.837884 |
| Q3 2026 | Net debt | −0.679643 |
Free cash flow for the quarter was only AED 14.7m: operating cash flow of 37.7m was almost entirely absorbed by capex of 23.0m
Operating cash flow for Q3 2026 was AED 37.7m – well below previous quarters: 157.8m in Q1 and 166.7m in Q2. Capex was AED 23.0m, so free cash flow barely exceeded 14.7m.
The weakness in third-quarter operating cash flow is seasonal: the company builds inventory ahead of the high fourth-quarter season. Over the trailing twelve months operating cash flow was AED 659.3m, a healthy base for funding capex and dividends.
Quarterly capex of AED 23.0m is moderate for a retail chain. Over the trailing twelve months it was below operating cash flow, leaving the company room for shareholder payouts.
Valuation vs its own history
now vs the 3-year average
| Period | Measure | × |
|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | Now | 5.072113995715834 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3-year average | 8.579647991720798 |
Net cash of AED 679.6m equals 0.8x annual EBITDA – there is no debt burden
At the end of September 2026 Spinneys' net debt was negative – minus AED 679.6m, meaning the company has a net cash position. That equals 0.8x trailing twelve-month EBITDA.
Over the quarter net cash fell from AED 837.9m on 30 June to 679.6m on 30 September – a change of 0.2bn. Over the year it grew: on 30 September 2025 it was 72.8m, an increase of about 0.6bn.
This cushion lets the company fund capex and dividends without borrowing. A net debt/EBITDA ratio of -0.8 is a margin of safety, not a sign of inefficient capital use.
Share price, three years
close, last point 2026-11-13
| Period | Measure | AED per share |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-09 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-05-10 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2024-05-13 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-05-14 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-05-15 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-05-16 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-05-17 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2024-05-20 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-05-21 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-05-22 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-05-23 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-05-24 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-05-27 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-05-28 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-05-29 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-05-30 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-05-31 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-03 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-04 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-05 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-06 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-07 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-06-10 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-06-11 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-06-12 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-06-13 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-06-14 | Closing price | 1.45 |
| 2024-06-19 | Closing price | 1.41 |
| 2024-06-20 | Closing price | 1.39 |
| 2024-06-21 | Closing price | 1.38 |
| 2024-06-24 | Closing price | 1.43 |
| 2024-06-25 | Closing price | 1.45 |
| 2024-06-26 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-06-27 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-06-28 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-01 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-02 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-03 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-04 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-05 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-08 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-09 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-07-10 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-07-11 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-12 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-15 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-07-16 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-17 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-18 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-07-19 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-07-22 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-23 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-24 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-25 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-07-26 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-29 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-30 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-07-31 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-01 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-08-02 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-08-05 | Closing price | 1.46 |
| 2024-08-06 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-08-07 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-08 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-08-09 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-12 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-08-13 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-08-14 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-08-15 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-16 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-19 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-20 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-21 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-22 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-23 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-26 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-27 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-28 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-08-29 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-08-30 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-09-02 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-09-03 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-04 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-05 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-06 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-09 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-09-10 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-11 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-12 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-09-13 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2024-09-16 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2024-09-17 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-09-18 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-09-19 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-09-20 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-09-23 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-09-24 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2024-09-25 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-09-26 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-09-27 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-09-30 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2024-10-01 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-10-02 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-10-03 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-10-04 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-10-07 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-10-08 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-10-09 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-10-10 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-10-11 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-10-14 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-10-15 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-10-16 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-10-17 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-10-18 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-10-21 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2024-10-22 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-10-23 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-10-24 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-10-25 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2024-10-28 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-10-29 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-10-30 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2024-10-31 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-11-01 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-11-04 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-11-05 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-11-06 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-11-07 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-11-08 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2024-11-11 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-11-12 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-13 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-11-14 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2024-11-15 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-18 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-19 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-11-20 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-21 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-22 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-11-25 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-26 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-27 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-28 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-11-29 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-04 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-05 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-06 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-09 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-12-10 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-11 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-12 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2024-12-13 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-12-16 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2024-12-17 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2024-12-18 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2024-12-19 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2024-12-20 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2024-12-23 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-12-24 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2024-12-25 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2024-12-26 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2024-12-27 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2024-12-30 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2024-12-31 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-01-02 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-01-03 | Closing price | 1.67 |
| 2025-01-06 | Closing price | 1.68 |
| 2025-01-07 | Closing price | 1.72 |
| 2025-01-08 | Closing price | 1.73 |
| 2025-01-09 | Closing price | 1.74 |
| 2025-01-10 | Closing price | 1.71 |
| 2025-01-13 | Closing price | 1.7 |
| 2025-01-14 | Closing price | 1.69 |
| 2025-01-15 | Closing price | 1.7 |
| 2025-01-16 | Closing price | 1.7 |
| 2025-01-17 | Closing price | 1.68 |
| 2025-01-20 | Closing price | 1.68 |
| 2025-01-21 | Closing price | 1.71 |
| 2025-01-22 | Closing price | 1.73 |
| 2025-01-23 | Closing price | 1.72 |
| 2025-01-24 | Closing price | 1.7 |
| 2025-01-27 | Closing price | 1.7 |
| 2025-01-28 | Closing price | 1.72 |
| 2025-01-29 | Closing price | 1.68 |
| 2025-01-30 | Closing price | 1.66 |
| 2025-01-31 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-02-03 | Closing price | 1.64 |
| 2025-02-04 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-02-05 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-02-06 | Closing price | 1.64 |
| 2025-02-07 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2025-02-10 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-02-11 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2025-02-12 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-02-13 | Closing price | 1.64 |
| 2025-02-14 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-02-17 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-02-18 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-02-19 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-02-20 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-02-21 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-02-24 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-02-25 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-02-26 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-02-27 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-02-28 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-03-03 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-03-04 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-03-05 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-03-06 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-03-07 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-03-10 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-03-11 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-03-12 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-03-13 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-03-14 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-03-17 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-03-18 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-03-19 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-03-20 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-03-21 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-03-24 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-03-25 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-03-26 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-03-27 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-03-28 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-04-02 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-04-03 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-04-04 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-04-07 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-04-08 | Closing price | 1.46 |
| 2025-04-09 | Closing price | 1.43 |
| 2025-04-10 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-04-11 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-04-14 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-04-15 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-04-16 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-04-17 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-04-18 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-04-21 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-04-22 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-04-23 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-04-24 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-04-25 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-04-28 | Closing price | 1.45 |
| 2025-04-29 | Closing price | 1.45 |
| 2025-04-30 | Closing price | 1.44 |
| 2025-05-01 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-05-02 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-05-05 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-05-06 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-07 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-08 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-09 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-12 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-13 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-14 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-15 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-05-16 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-05-19 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-05-20 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-05-21 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-05-22 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-23 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-05-27 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-05-28 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-05-29 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-05-30 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-02 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-06-03 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-04 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-06-09 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-10 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-11 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-06-12 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-13 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-06-16 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-06-17 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-06-18 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-06-19 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-06-20 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-06-23 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-06-24 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-06-25 | Closing price | 1.46 |
| 2025-06-26 | Closing price | 1.46 |
| 2025-06-30 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-07-01 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-07-02 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-03 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-07-04 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-07-07 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-07-08 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-07-09 | Closing price | 1.47 |
| 2025-07-10 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-07-11 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-07-14 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-07-15 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-16 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-07-17 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-18 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-07-21 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-22 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-23 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-07-24 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-07-25 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-07-28 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-07-29 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-07-30 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-01 | Closing price | 1.63 |
| 2025-08-04 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-05 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-06 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-08-07 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-08 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-08-11 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-08-12 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-08-13 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-08-14 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-08-15 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-08-18 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-08-19 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-08-20 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-21 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-08-22 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-08-25 | Closing price | 1.67 |
| 2025-08-26 | Closing price | 1.66 |
| 2025-08-27 | Closing price | 1.65 |
| 2025-08-28 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2025-08-29 | Closing price | 1.64 |
| 2025-09-01 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2025-09-02 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-09-03 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-09-04 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2025-09-08 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2025-09-09 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-09-10 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-09-11 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-09-12 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-09-15 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-09-16 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-09-17 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-09-18 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-09-19 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-09-22 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-09-23 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-09-24 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-09-25 | Closing price | 1.48 |
| 2025-09-26 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2025-09-29 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-09-30 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-10-01 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-10-02 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-10-03 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-06 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-10-07 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-10-08 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-10-09 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-10 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-10-13 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-14 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-10-15 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-16 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-17 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-20 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-21 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-22 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-10-23 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-24 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-27 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2025-10-28 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-10-29 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-10-30 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-03 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-11-04 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-11-05 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-11-06 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-07 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-10 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-11 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-12 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-13 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2025-11-14 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2025-11-17 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2025-11-18 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-11-19 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-11-20 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-11-21 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-24 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2025-11-25 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-26 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-11-27 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2025-12-03 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-12-04 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-12-05 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-08 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-12-09 | Closing price | 1.46 |
| 2025-12-10 | Closing price | 1.49 |
| 2025-12-11 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-12 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-12-16 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-17 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-18 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-12-19 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-12-22 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2025-12-23 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2025-12-24 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-26 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-29 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2025-12-30 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | Closing price | 1.51 |
| 2026-01-02 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2026-01-05 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2026-01-06 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2026-01-07 | Closing price | 1.61 |
| 2026-01-08 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-09 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-01-12 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-13 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-14 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2026-01-15 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-01-16 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-19 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-20 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-01-21 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-22 | Closing price | 1.59 |
| 2026-01-23 | Closing price | 1.6 |
| 2026-01-26 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-01-27 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-01-28 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2026-01-29 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2026-01-30 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2026-02-02 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2026-02-03 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-02-04 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-02-05 | Closing price | 1.55 |
| 2026-02-06 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-02-09 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-02-10 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2026-02-11 | Closing price | 1.57 |
| 2026-02-12 | Closing price | 1.58 |
| 2026-02-13 | Closing price | 1.62 |
| 2026-02-16 | Closing price | 1.56 |
| 2026-02-17 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2026-02-18 | Closing price | 1.54 |
| 2026-02-19 | Closing price | 1.53 |
| 2026-02-20 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2026-02-23 | Closing price | 1.52 |
| 2026-02-24 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2026-02-25 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2026-02-26 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2026-02-27 | Closing price | 1.5 |
| 2026-03-04 | Closing price | 1.43 |
| 2026-03-05 | Closing price | 1.44 |
| 2026-03-06 | Closing price | 1.45 |
| 2026-03-09 | Closing price | 1.44 |
| 2026-03-10 | Closing price | 1.42 |
| 2026-03-11 | Closing price | 1.37 |
| 2026-03-12 | Closing price | 1.33 |
| 2026-03-13 | Closing price | 1.35 |
| 2026-03-16 | Closing price | 1.31 |
| 2026-03-17 | Closing price | 1.36 |
| 2026-03-18 | Closing price | 1.37 |
| 2026-03-23 | Closing price | 1.35 |
| 2026-03-24 | Closing price | 1.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Closing price | 1.35 |
| 2026-03-26 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-03-27 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-03-30 | Closing price | 1.19 |
| 2026-03-31 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-04-01 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Closing price | 1.17 |
| 2026-04-03 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-06 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-07 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-04-08 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-04-09 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-10 | Closing price | 1.23 |
| 2026-04-13 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-04-14 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-04-15 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-04-16 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-04-17 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-04-20 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-04-21 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-04-22 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-04-23 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-04-24 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-27 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-04-28 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-29 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-04-30 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-05-01 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Closing price | 1.16 |
| 2026-05-05 | Closing price | 1.13 |
| 2026-05-06 | Closing price | 1.16 |
| 2026-05-07 | Closing price | 1.17 |
| 2026-05-08 | Closing price | 1.16 |
| 2026-05-11 | Closing price | 1.16 |
| 2026-05-12 | Closing price | 1.12 |
| 2026-05-13 | Closing price | 1.11 |
| 2026-05-14 | Closing price | 1.1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Closing price | 1.1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Closing price | 1.09 |
| 2026-05-19 | Closing price | 1.1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Closing price | 1.08 |
| 2026-05-21 | Closing price | 1.1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Closing price | 1.09 |
| 2026-05-25 | Closing price | 1.15 |
| 2026-06-01 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-06-02 | Closing price | 1.17 |
| 2026-06-03 | Closing price | 1.17 |
| 2026-06-04 | Closing price | 1.17 |
| 2026-06-05 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Closing price | 1.19 |
| 2026-06-09 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-06-10 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-06-11 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-06-12 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-06-16 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-06-17 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-06-18 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-06-19 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-06-22 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-06-23 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-06-24 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-06-25 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-06-26 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-06-29 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-06-30 | Closing price | 1.3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-07-02 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-07-03 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-07-06 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-07 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-07-08 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-09 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-07-10 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-07-13 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-07-14 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-07-15 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-07-16 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-07-17 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-07-20 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-21 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-22 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-23 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-07-24 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-07-27 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-07-28 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-07-29 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-07-30 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-07-31 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-08-03 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-08-04 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-08-05 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-08-06 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-08-07 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-08-10 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-08-11 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-08-12 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-08-13 | Closing price | 1.31 |
| 2026-08-14 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-08-17 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-08-18 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-08-19 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-08-20 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-08-21 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-08-24 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-08-25 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-08-26 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-08-27 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-08-31 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-09-01 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-09-02 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-09-03 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-09-04 | Closing price | 1.3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Closing price | 1.32 |
| 2026-09-08 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-09-09 | Closing price | 1.3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Closing price | 1.29 |
| 2026-09-11 | Closing price | 1.3 |
| 2026-09-14 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-09-15 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-09-16 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-09-17 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | Closing price | 1.28 |
| 2026-09-21 | Closing price | 1.27 |
| 2026-09-22 | Closing price | 1.26 |
| 2026-09-23 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-09-24 | Closing price | 1.23 |
| 2026-09-25 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-09-28 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-09-29 | Closing price | 1.25 |
| 2026-09-30 | Closing price | 1.235 |
| 2026-10-01 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-10-02 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-05 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-06 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-07 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-10-08 | Closing price | 1.24 |
| 2026-10-09 | Closing price | 1.225 |
| 2026-10-12 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-10-13 | Closing price | 1.215 |
| 2026-10-14 | Closing price | 1.215 |
| 2026-10-15 | Closing price | 1.215 |
| 2026-10-16 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-19 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-20 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-21 | Closing price | 1.23 |
| 2026-10-22 | Closing price | 1.215 |
| 2026-10-23 | Closing price | 1.185 |
| 2026-10-26 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-10-27 | Closing price | 1.205 |
| 2026-10-28 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-10-29 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-10-30 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-11-02 | Closing price | 1.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | Closing price | 1.18 |
| 2026-11-04 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-11-05 | Closing price | 1.22 |
| 2026-11-06 | Closing price | 1.205 |
| 2026-11-09 | Closing price | 1.21 |
| 2026-11-10 | Closing price | 1.2 |
| 2026-11-11 | Closing price | 1.23 |
| 2026-11-12 | Closing price | 1.235 |
| 2026-11-13 | Closing price | 1.22 |
Dividend yield of 5.7% on payouts the company can fund from profit
Spinneys' trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.7%. The company pays dividends out of net profit, and with profit of AED 358.9m over the trailing twelve months the payouts are well covered.
Our estimate for the current year's dividend assumes the payout ratio and profit remain at trailing twelve-month levels. The risk of a lower payout is tied to a profit decline if revenue growth slows, or to higher capex requiring more cash.
The 5.7% yield looks attractive against current rates, but the main point is that the company can pay dividends without compromising financial stability, since its net cash position remains positive.
EV/EBITDA of 5.1 is a 41% discount to its own three-year average of 8.6, and that is the main argument for the stock
On trailing twelve-month EV/EBITDA Spinneys trades at 5.1. That is 41% below its own three-year average of 8.6. The stock is cheaper than it has historically been, and that is the key argument for the investment.
The trailing P/E is 12.2. With a net cash position and a 17.0% EBITDA margin, that level looks modest for a stable retail business.
On the portal's model, which compares EBITDA growth with the target multiple and market cap, the upside to fair value is +23%. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus.
Valuation on the latest reported figures
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | 4.39 bn AED |
| P/E (LTM) | 12.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (LTM) | 5.1 |
| P/B | 10.82 |
| Net debt / EBITDA (LTM) | -0.80 |
| Operating cash flow (LTM) | 0.66 bn |
| ROE | 50.1% |
| Dividend yield (12m) | 5.7% |
| EV/EBITDA, 3-year average | 8.6 |
Bottom line
The report's strengths are revenue acceleration to +6.9% year on year, 8.3% EBITDA growth and net cash of AED 679.6m. The weak spot is quarterly free cash flow of only AED 14.7m, while 22.2% net profit growth rests on a weak year-ago base. The key question for a holder is whether the company can keep revenue growth above 5% and maintain dividend payouts. Our conclusion: rather attractive – the portal model implies +23% upside. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +23%.