Fortuna Mining: silver rose 57.6%, yet EBITDA came in $82.0m below what the price allowed

On 11 November Fortuna Mining reported third-quarter 2026 results. The average silver price in the period was $62.8 versus $39.9 a year earlier (+57.6%), gold rose to $4,268 from $3,459 (+23.4%). Revenue grew 16.7% to $293.4m, EBITDA 17.4% to $162.3m, while net profit fell 61.3% to $47.8m. At the year-ago volumes and costs, our calculation shows those prices should have delivered $357.4m of revenue and $244.3m of EBITDA – the company came in $64.0m and $82.0m short respectively. Our conclusion: rather unattractive – on the portal's model the share stands 71% below fair value. Our view: the share is rather unattractive at the current price; upside on the portal model -71%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Silver averaged $62.8 in the reported quarter – 57.6% above a year earlier, but already 14.1% below the previous quarter

— At the year-ago volumes and costs, our calculation shows those prices should have delivered $244.3m of EBITDA – the company earned $162.3m, $82.0m less

— Revenue grew 16.7% year on year but decelerated from 38.2% in the previous quarter – prices no longer pull it with the same force

— The EBITDA margin held at 55.3% versus 55.0% a year earlier, while the net margin collapsed from 49.2% to 16.3% – profit was eaten by a one-off in last year's base

— Net cash of $295.1m and net debt to EBITDA of minus 0.36 – there is no debt burden

— Free cash flow of $61.7m for the quarter on $50.6m of capex – the mine still pays for itself

— On the portal's model, annual EBITDA at today's prices is $533m against $767m over the last twelve months, and EV/EBITDA is 4.9

Key figures, USD bn

Silver averaged $62.8 in the reported quarter – 57.6% above a year earlier, but already 14.1% below the previous quarter

Silver accounts for 55% of Fortuna Mining's sales, and its average price in the third quarter of 2026 was $62.8 per ounce versus $39.9 a year earlier – a rise of 57.6%. Gold, which brings 45% of revenue, averaged $4,268 versus $3,459, up 23.4%.

Both metals fell against the previous quarter: silver by 14.1% from $73.1, gold by 5.5% from $4,514. As of 11 November 2026, spot silver is $52.3, 16.8% below the reported-period average, and gold is $4,045, 5.2% below.

For the company this means the quarter ran at peak prices, while the next report will come at a more modest backdrop. Reserve life is 4.4 years at the current production rate – the volume cushion is limited.

Commodity prices: period average and now

At the year-ago volumes and costs, our calculation shows those prices should have delivered $244.3m of EBITDA – the company earned $162.3m, $82.0m less

Holding third-quarter 2025 volumes and non-commodity costs and moving only silver and gold prices, revenue would have been $357.4m and EBITDA $244.3m. The company actually reported $293.4m of revenue and $162.3m of EBITDA: $64.0m (−17.9%) and $82.0m (−33.6%) below the calculation.

Against the previous quarter the picture is reversed: at second-quarter 2026 volumes and costs, prices implied $285.8m of revenue and $174.6m of EBITDA, while the actual $293.4m and $162.3m came in $7.6m (+2.7%) above on revenue and $12.3m (−7.1%) below on EBITDA.

The portal's spot model, built from the average of the previous four quarters, expected $297.8m of revenue and $185.2m of EBITDA – the actual was 1.5% below on revenue and 12.3% below on EBITDA. In the four preceding quarters the EBITDA deviation from the model ranged from −15.9% to −29.0%, so the company systematically undershoots the price-implied benchmark.

The gap is explained by volumes, the realised price against the benchmark and unit costs; the facts do not allow it to be split between these causes. The very existence of the gap against such a price rise is the main question for the report.

What the prices implied and what the company earned

Revenue grew 16.7% year on year but decelerated from 38.2% in the previous quarter – prices no longer pull it with the same force

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $293.4m, 16.7% more than a year earlier. That is markedly slower than the 38.2% of the second quarter: the deceleration reflects silver falling 14.1% and gold 5.5% against the previous quarter.

Year on year, growth came from prices: silver +57.6%, gold +23.4%. But against the second-quarter peak the company is already operating at a lower backdrop, and the next report will come with spot silver at $52.3 – a further 16.8% below the reported-period average.

Operating profit was $108.7m versus $85.2m a year earlier, growing faster than revenue – unit costs, judging by that ratio, were not inflating.

The EBITDA margin held at 55.3% versus 55.0% a year earlier, while the net margin collapsed from 49.2% to 16.3% – profit was eaten by a one-off in last year's base

Third-quarter EBITDA was $162.3m on $293.4m of revenue, a 55.3% margin versus 55.0% a year earlier. The margin did not move despite higher prices: unit-cost inflation or lower volumes absorbed the price gain.

Net profit was $47.8m versus $123.6m a year earlier, down 61.3%. The net margin fell from 49.2% to 16.3%. With the EBITDA margin almost unchanged, such a collapse is explained by a one-off in last year's base: profit was inflated then, and this time it normalised.

For a holder this means the mine's operating economics did not deteriorate as much as net profit suggests. But the price rise is not converting into profit either: EBITDA grew only 17.4% while silver rose 57.6%.

Net cash of $295.1m and net debt to EBITDA of minus 0.36 – there is no debt burden

As of 30 September 2026 the company had net cash of $295.1m: cash exceeds debt. Net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is minus 0.36.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was $112.4m, capex $50.6m, so free cash flow was $61.7m. The mine funds itself and still builds cash.

With such a cushion, interest costs do not weigh on profit, and debt risk in the reported period is minimal. This is the main argument for the share.

Free cash flow of $61.7m for the quarter on $50.6m of capex – the mine still pays for itself

Operating cash flow of $112.4m minus $50.6m of capex gives $61.7m of free cash flow for the third quarter. Capex is 17.3% of revenue – reinvestment that keeps production at the current level.

With a 4.4-year reserve life, sustaining production requires constant spending, and $50.6m a quarter is the price the company pays for a stable volume. If prices move to spot, free cash flow will compress faster than EBITDA because capex is fixed.

Over the last twelve months operating cash flow was $819.9m – the level that underpins both dividend capacity and the cushion against falling prices.

On the portal's model, annual EBITDA at today's prices is $533m against $767m over the last twelve months, and EV/EBITDA is 4.9

The last twelve months delivered $824.2m of EBITDA, but that money was earned at past, higher prices. On the portal's spot model, annual EBITDA at today's prices is $533m – 30.5% less. EV/EBITDA on that base is 4.9, and net debt to EBITDA is minus 0.55.

Market capitalisation is $2,915.4m, P/E over the last twelve months 9.6, EV/EBITDA 3.4, return on equity 10.7%. On the portal's model the share stands 71% below fair value calculated from current metal prices.

That figure decides the verdict: at EV/EBITDA 4.9 on current EBITDA the market already prices in a further fall, but the model says the cushion is negative. A reversal is possible only if silver recovers above $62.8.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The balance sheet remains the strong point: net cash of $295.1m and $61.7m of free cash flow for the quarter. But with silver up 57.6% year on year, EBITDA grew only 17.4%, and our calculation puts the shortfall to the price-implied benchmark at $82.0m – not a one-off but a recurring pattern. Net profit fell 61.3% on an inflated year-ago base, which is not a deterioration of the mine but no reason for growth either. On the portal's model the share stands 71% below fair value, and that gap outweighs the healthy balance sheet. Our conclusion: rather unattractive – minus 71% on the portal's model. Our view: the share is rather unattractive at the current price; upside on the portal model -71%.