Nucor Corporation: record profit on higher prices and volumes, but valuation is already ahead

27 июля Nucor Corporation раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Чистая прибыль выросла на 91,7% год к году до 1 156 млн долл., выручка – на 23,0% до 10 397 млн долл., а EBITDA – на 59,7% до 2 020 млн долл. Акции после релиза прибавили 0,1%, а с момента публикации до 9 сентября – 4,2%. При текущей цене бумага выглядит скорее непривлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA почти вдвое выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего, а по модели портала потенциал роста отрицательный.

Key takeaways

— Record profit driven by higher prices and volumes in the steel mills segment

— EBITDA margin expanded to 19.4% from 15.0% a year earlier

— Net margin rose to 11.1% from 7.1%

— Net debt stands at 1.2x EBITDA

— Dividend is growing but yield is below 1%

— Valuation is well above its own history

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Record profit driven by higher prices and volumes in the steel mills segment

In the second quarter of 2026, Nucor Corporation earned $1,156 million in net income – the best quarterly result in at least the last two years. The main contribution came from the steel mills segment: its pre-tax earnings rose to $1,556 million from $843 million a year earlier. The company attributes the increase to higher average selling prices and volumes.

Steel mill shipments reached 7,100 thousand tons – a record level, as management notes. The average selling price rose 10% year-over-year to $1,145 per ton. Additionally, the report states that cost of products sold included a cash refund of $130 million related to prior periods' raw material procurement costs – a one-off positive factor.

In the steel products segment, earnings improved due to higher volumes and stable pricing, and in the raw materials segment – due to higher selling prices and shipments. Thus, profit growth is broad-based, but the main driver remains the steel mills segment.

EBITDA margin expanded to 19.4% from 15.0% a year earlier

In the second quarter of 2026, EBITDA was $2,020 million, up 59.7% year-over-year. EBITDA margin expanded to 19.4% from 15.0% in the second quarter of 2025. The margin expansion reflects operating leverage: with revenue up 23%, cost of products sold rose only 15.6% (from $7,233 million to $8,363 million).

The report also states that marketing, administrative and other expenses included a non-cash benefit of $61 million from the increase in the value of the investment in Helion, a fusion energy company. Excluding this effect, adjusted net earnings would have been $1,110 million, or $4.84 per diluted share.

Net margin rose to 11.1% from 7.1%

Net margin in the second quarter of 2026 reached 11.1% versus 7.1% a year earlier. Net income rose 91.7% to $1,156 million, significantly outpacing revenue growth. In addition to operating factors, the dynamics were also affected by the one-off non-cash gain from the revaluation of the Helion investment.

Excluding this gain, net income would have been $1,110 million, which still implies growth of about 84% year-over-year. Thus, even on an adjusted basis, profitability improved substantially.

Net debt stands at 1.2x EBITDA

At the end of the second quarter of 2026, Nucor Corporation's net debt stood at $3,612 million, down $0.9 billion from the previous quarter and $0.8 billion over the trailing twelve months. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is 1.2, a moderate level for a steel company.

The company maintains strong liquidity: $2.69 billion in cash and short-term investments, and the $2.25 billion revolving credit facility remains undrawn. Credit ratings of A-/A-/A3 with stable outlooks are the strongest in the North American steel sector.

Dividend is growing but yield is below 1%

The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share, payable on August 11, 2026. This is the 213th consecutive quarterly dividend. Over the last twelve months, the dividend yield was 0.86% – below 1%, reflecting both the moderate payout size and the high share price.

In the first half of 2026, the company paid dividends of $258 million and repurchased shares for $475 million, returning a total of about $733 million to shareholders. In the second quarter, 1.53 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $228.76 per share.

At the current share price, the dividend yield looks modest, especially compared to the key rate. However, the sustainability of payments is supported by strong cash flow and low leverage.

Valuation is well above its own history

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 15.4, while the three-year average is 8.5. Thus, the shares trade at a premium of almost 1.8 times to their own history. P/E over the last twelve months is 33.8, which is also a high level for a cyclical company.

According to the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA, the upside potential of the shares is -75% to fair value. This means the market has already priced in a very optimistic scenario.

Revenue and profit growth in the second quarter was impressive, but a significant part of the improvement is due to one-off factors and favorable pricing conditions. If steel prices remain at current levels, the company is unlikely to repeat such a result in the coming quarters.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Nucor Corporation показала сильный квартал: рекордные отгрузки, рост цен и маржи, а также низкая долговая нагрузка. Однако значительная часть прибыли обусловлена разовыми факторами – возвратом 130 млн долл. по сырью и переоценкой инвестиции в Helion на 61 млн долл. Без них рост был бы менее впечатляющим. Главный вопрос для держателя – оценка: при EV/EBITDA 15,4 против среднего 8,5 и потенциале -75% по модели портала акции выглядят переоценёнными. Вердикт – скорее непривлекательно.