Petrobras: Q2 2026 profit up 115%, but the portal's model sees 57% downside

Petrobras reported Q2 2026 results: revenue up 56.2% YoY to $33.4 billion, EBITDA up 100.4%, net profit up 115.3%. The stock trades at 8.2x EV/EBITDA versus its 3-year average of 5.6x, and the portal's model implies 57% downside, making the share unattractive at the current price.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue grew 56.2% YoY to $33.4 billion, driven by high oil prices and higher sales volumes.

— EBITDA doubled YoY, with margin expanding to 55.4% from 43.2% a year earlier, thanks to operating leverage and cost control.

— Net profit rose 115.3% to $10.3 billion, helped by the absence of large one-off write-downs that occurred a year ago.

— Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was $12.2 billion, comfortably covering capital expenditures of $4.5 billion.

— Net debt fell by $3.0 billion from the previous quarter to $61.6 billion, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.42.

— Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 3.8%, below the key rate and historical levels, limiting the stock's appeal.

— EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is well above the 3-year average of 5.6x, suggesting overvaluation, especially with the portal's model showing 57% downside.

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 56.2% YoY to $33.4 billion, driven by high oil prices and higher sales volumes.

In Q2 2026, Petrobras's revenue reached $33.4 billion, up 56.2% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is the highest quarterly figure in the last two years, reflecting favorable global oil market conditions and higher sales volumes.

Revenue growth accelerated compared to previous quarters: in Q1 2026 it was 12.5%, and in Q2 2025 only 1.9%. The company continues to increase production and exports, benefiting from high commodity prices.

EBITDA doubled YoY, with margin expanding to 55.4% from 43.2% a year earlier, thanks to operating leverage and cost control.

EBITDA in Q2 2026 reached $18.5 billion, up 100.4% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded to 55.4% from 43.2% in the same quarter last year, indicating high operational efficiency.

The main driver of margin expansion was operating leverage: with revenue growing 56%, the cost base increased at a slower pace. The company continues to control operating expenses, allowing it to convert revenue growth into profit.

Net profit rose 115.3% to $10.3 billion, helped by the absence of large one-off write-downs that occurred a year ago.

Net profit for Q2 2026 was $10.3 billion, up 115.3% YoY. Profit growth outpaced EBITDA growth due to the absence of large one-off write-downs that negatively impacted Q2 2025 results.

Net margin reached 31.0% versus 22.5% a year earlier. The company also benefited from lower financial expenses and tax burden, amplifying the effect of operational growth.

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was $12.2 billion, comfortably covering capital expenditures of $4.5 billion.

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 reached $12.2 billion, well above capital expenditures of $4.5 billion. Free cash flow after investments was about $7.6 billion, providing resources for dividend payments and debt reduction.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow totaled $36.6 billion, and capital expenditures were about $20.2 billion (sum of quarterly figures). This confirms the company's ability to generate excess liquidity even during periods of high investment activity.

Net debt fell by $3.0 billion from the previous quarter to $61.6 billion, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.42.

At the end of Q2 2026, Petrobras's net debt stood at $61.6 billion, down $3.0 billion from the previous quarter. Over the last 12 months, debt increased by $4.3 billion, reflecting a large investment program.

Net debt/EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.42, a moderate level for an oil company. However, EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is significantly above the 3-year average of 5.6x, indicating a high market valuation.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 3.8%, below the key rate and historical levels, limiting the stock's appeal.

Over the last twelve months, Petrobras paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 3.8% at the current price. This is noticeably below Brazil's key rate and historical yield levels that investors received in previous years.

Payments for 2025 were generous, but in 2026 the company increased capital expenditures, which may limit dividend growth. If oil prices remain at current levels, the company can sustain payments, but the potential for increasing dividend yield is limited.

EV/EBITDA of 8.2x is well above the 3-year average of 5.6x, suggesting overvaluation, especially with the portal's model showing 57% downside.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.2x, 45% above the 3-year average of 5.6x. This means the market is pricing in either sustainably high oil prices or significant production growth that has not yet been confirmed.

According to the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target multiple, the share's downside potential is -57% from the current market price. This indicates the stock is overvalued, and investors should exercise caution.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report is strong: revenue and profit grew at double-digit rates, margins reached record levels, and operating cash flow comfortably covers investments. However, much of the profit growth is due to a low base effect – there were large write-downs a year ago. The main question for a holder is valuation: the stock trades at a 45% premium to its own 3-year average multiple, and the portal's model indicates 57% downside. At this price, the share is unattractive, and a revision of the verdict would require either a significant rise in oil prices or a correction in the share price.