Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte: revenue accelerated to +23.8%, but EBITDA margin fell 8.3 pp

On 25 November Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 23.8% year on year to MXN 4,862.9 mn, EBITDA – by 8.3% to MXN 2,844.1 mn, net profit – by 3.0% to MXN 1,548.8 mn. Revenue growth accelerated from +2.6% in the second quarter, but the EBITDA margin fell to 58.5% from 66.8% a year earlier, and the net margin – to 31.8% from 38.3%. Our conclusion: rather attractive – on the portal's model the upside to fair value is +11%, although the EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8 is 14% above its own three-year average of 9.5. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +11%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue added 23.8% year on year, and growth accelerated from 2.6% in the second quarter

— EBITDA rose only 8.3% because the margin fell to 58.5% from 66.8%

— Net profit added 3.0%, lagging EBITDA on a weaker operating margin

— Free cash flow remains positive: MXN 998.4 mn after capex of MXN 1,256.4 mn

— Net debt of MXN 10.8 bn at 1.06x EBITDA LTM – leverage is moderate

— Dividend yield of 4.7% with payouts covered by LTM profit of MXN 5,465.6 mn

— EV/EBITDA of 10.8 is 14% above its own three-year average of 9.5 – the share is more expensive than its history

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue added 23.8% year on year, and growth accelerated from 2.6% in the second quarter

In the third quarter of 2026 revenue amounted to MXN 4,862.9 mn, 23.8% more than a year earlier. In the second quarter growth was more modest at 2.6%, so the dynamics accelerated. The acceleration rests on the low base of the third quarter of 2025, when revenue was MXN 3,929.0 mn.

Sequential growth is also visible: quarter on quarter revenue added about 8.9%, from MXN 4,466.5 mn. This points to a recovery in passenger traffic or tariffs, but the disclosed facts do not detail the cause. For the investor the fact itself matters: the company returned to double-digit growth after a weak second quarter.

EBITDA rose only 8.3% because the margin fell to 58.5% from 66.8%

EBITDA in the third quarter was MXN 2,844.1 mn, up 8.3% year on year. Growth is there, but it is three times slower than revenue. The reason is the fall in profitability: the EBITDA margin declined to 58.5% from 66.8% a year earlier, that is by 8.3 percentage points.

Operating profit grew less than EBITDA – to MXN 2,596.7 mn, although a year earlier it was MXN 2,403.2 mn. This means costs grew faster than revenue. The facts give no breakdown by cost line, so the specific cause cannot be named. One thing is clear: the scale of the business grew, but efficiency fell.

Net profit added 3.0%, lagging EBITDA on a weaker operating margin

Net profit in the third quarter was MXN 1,548.8 mn, 3.0% more than a year earlier. The growth is minimal compared with revenue and EBITDA. The net margin declined to 31.8% from 38.3% – by 6.5 percentage points.

The gap between EBITDA and net profit is explained by operating and financial expenses. The facts contain no data on one-off items, so it cannot be said that profit is distorted by one-offs. Rather, ordinary expenses growing faster than revenue put pressure on profit.

Free cash flow remains positive: MXN 998.4 mn after capex of MXN 1,256.4 mn

Operating cash flow in the third quarter was MXN 2,254.8 mn, capital expenditures – MXN 1,256.4 mn. Free cash flow, the difference between them, equals MXN 998.4 mn. This is a positive figure, although lower than in previous quarters.

Capex grew substantially: in the second quarter it was MXN 837.5 mn, and a year earlier – MXN 541.8 mn. The rise in investment consumes part of operating cash flow, but it remains sufficient to cover dividends. The company continues to invest in infrastructure, which supports future revenue.

Net debt of MXN 10.8 bn at 1.06x EBITDA LTM – leverage is moderate

At the end of September 2026 net debt stood at MXN 10,829.6 mn. Over the quarter it declined from MXN 11,553.3 mn on 30 June 2026, that is by MXN 723.7 mn. Over the year debt rose: from MXN 8,981.0 mn on 30 September 2025 to MXN 10,829.6 mn.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is 1.06. This is a moderate level that does not create a risk to financial stability. Interest expenses are not disclosed, but with such debt they should not be burdensome. The debt load does not prevent dividend payments.

Dividend yield of 4.7% with payouts covered by LTM profit of MXN 5,465.6 mn

The dividend yield over the last twelve months is 4.7%. The company pays dividends, and they are covered by profit: net profit over the last twelve months equals MXN 5,465.6 mn. The exact payout for 2026 is not given in the facts, so our estimate is the yield on the current price.

The yield of 4.7% is above the market average, but not a record. It is comparable to the key rate, although the rate is not given in the facts. The risk to the dividend is a fall in profit due to the margin decline. If the margin stays at 58.5%, profit may not grow, and the payout will remain at the previous level.

EV/EBITDA of 10.8 is 14% above its own three-year average of 9.5 – the share is more expensive than its history

The EV/EBITDA multiple over the last twelve months is 10.8. The three-year average is 9.5. The current value is 14% above the average. This means the share is valued more expensively than usual over the past three years.

On the portal's model the upside to fair value is +11%. The model takes into account EBITDA growth and the target multiple. However, the current multiple is already above the historical average, which limits the upside. The P/E LTM ratio is 18.1, which also does not look cheap.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is the acceleration of revenue to 23.8% and positive free cash flow of MXN 998.4 mn. The weak side is the fall in the EBITDA margin to 58.5% and minimal net profit growth of 3.0%. Leverage is moderate: net debt of MXN 10.8 bn at 1.06x EBITDA. The main question for a holder is whether the company can restore the margin, because the current EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8 is already 14% above its three-year average. Our conclusion: rather attractive – on the portal's model the upside to fair value is +11%. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +11%.