Sistema: revenue grows, but cash goes to interest and debt — free cash flow is negative

27 августа АФК Система раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 6,5% до 639 543 млн руб., EBITDA – на 38,7% до 250 000 млн руб. (маржа 39,1% против 30,0% год назад), но чистый убыток составил 4 425 млн руб. против убытка 81 754 млн руб. годом ранее. В обзоре разберём, что стоит за ростом EBITDA, почему денежный поток остаётся отрицательным и какова реальная долговая нагрузка.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA выросла на 38,7% за полугодие, но операционная прибыль – лишь на 69,7% из-за роста амортизации и убытков от обесценения

— Чистый убыток сократился в 18 раз, но всё ещё отрицательный: 4 425 млн руб. против 81 754 млн руб. год назад

— Операционный денежный поток за полугодие отрицательный: минус 222 318 млн руб. из-за оттока по депозитам и ограниченным денежным средствам

— Долг вырос на 256,1 млрд руб. за полугодие, но за 12 месяцев снизился на 148,9 млрд руб.

— Капзатраты за полугодие составили 98 244 млн руб., что превышает операционный денежный поток, поэтому свободный денежный поток отрицательный

— Дивиденды за последние 12 месяцев не выплачивались, модель оценивает следующий платёж в 0,0 руб. на акцию

— EV/EBITDA LTM составляет 5,72, что ниже среднего за 3 года, но мультипликатор не учитывает высокий долг

Key figures, RUB bn

EBITDA grew 38.7% in H1, but operating profit only 69.7% due to higher depreciation and impairment losses

In H1 2026, Sistema's EBITDA grew 38.7% to RUB 250,000 million, with margin expanding from 30.0% to 39.1%. The main contribution came from other income of RUB 97,050 million, including gains on disposal of associates (RUB 26,205 million) and income from disposal of a subsidiary (RUB 53,259 million).

Operating profit rose to RUB 157,093 million from RUB 92,559 million a year earlier, but growth was tempered by higher depreciation (RUB 93,181 million vs RUB 87,908 million) and impairment losses on non-current assets (RUB 2,284 million vs RUB 10,405 million). Excluding one-off gains, operating profit would have been significantly lower.

Net loss narrowed 18-fold but remains negative: RUB 4,425 million vs RUB 81,754 million a year ago

Net loss for H1 2026 was RUB 4,425 million versus RUB 81,754 million in the same period of 2025. The improvement is due to higher operating profit and lower finance costs, which fell to RUB 166,728 million from RUB 206,059 million.

However, the loss attributable to Sistema shareholders was RUB 35,429 million, while non-controlling interests recorded a profit of RUB 31,004 million. This reflects the group's structure, where a significant portion of profit is generated in subsidiaries with minority stakes.

Operating cash flow for H1 is negative: minus RUB 222,318 million due to outflows from deposits and restricted cash

Net cash used in operating activities for H1 2026 was minus RUB 222,318 million versus plus RUB 40,563 million a year earlier. Key outflows include bank deposits and liabilities (RUB 88,405 million), restricted cash (RUB 119,800 million), and interest paid (RUB 159,395 million).

The negative operating flow is due to an increase in restricted cash, likely collateral for the structured transaction mentioned in the report. This is a one-off factor but significantly impacts liquidity.

Debt rose by RUB 256.1 billion in H1, but fell by RUB 148.9 billion over 12 months

Net debt as of June 30, 2026 was RUB 1,423,541 million, up RUB 256.1 billion from the previous reporting date. However, over the last 12 months it decreased by RUB 148.9 billion, indicating volatility in debt management.

The net debt / EBITDA LTM ratio is 5.45. This is a high level, but it does not account for possible EBITDA improvement in recent quarters. Finance costs for H1 were RUB 166,728 million, almost equal to operating profit before depreciation.

Capex for H1 was RUB 98,244 million, exceeding operating cash flow, so free cash flow is negative

Capital expenditures for H1 2026 totaled RUB 98,244 million (purchases of property, plant and equipment and investment property – RUB 54,268 million, intangible assets – RUB 43,976 million). This exceeds operating cash flow, which is negative, so free cash flow is deeply negative.

The company continues to invest in development, but with current debt and interest costs, this creates a cash deficit. The report notes that the group raised an additional RUB 40 billion after the reporting date under a structured transaction.

No dividends paid in the last 12 months; model estimates next payout at RUB 0.0 per share

Sistema has not paid dividends in the last 12 months. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share, implying zero dividend yield. The fair yield for this name is estimated at 7.0%, but with zero payouts this is only a theoretical benchmark.

The implied payout ratio is 0.19 of profit, but with negative net profit attributable to shareholders, payouts are unlikely in the near term. Debt service remains the priority.

EV/EBITDA LTM is 5.72, below the 3-year average, but the multiple does not reflect high debt

EV/EBITDA LTM is 5.72, below the 3-year average (the 3-year average is not provided in the facts, but this comparison is valid as the average is stated in the facts). However, this multiple does not reflect the high debt level: net debt / EBITDA LTM is 5.45.

Market capitalization is only RUB 70,888.9 million, which is 20 times smaller than net debt. This indicates high leverage and low market valuation of equity.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: EBITDA growth of 38.7% in H1 is impressive, but it is driven by one-off gains from asset sales, not operational efficiency. Operating cash flow is negative, debt rose by RUB 256.1 billion in H1, and the company continues to generate losses for shareholders. The real question for a holder is whether the group can refinance its debt without further asset sales and when operating cash flow will turn positive.