Evrotrans: revenue down 28.5%, EBITDA nearly wiped out, while 57.8% dividend yield rests on debt

25 августа ЕвроТранс раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка сократилась на 28,5% год к году, EBITDA упала на 99,0%, а чистый убыток составил 7,4% выручки против прибыли в 3,0% годом ранее. При этом компания продолжает платить щедрые дивиденды, обеспечивая доходность 57,8% за последние 12 месяцев. Разбор покажет, что скрывается за этими цифрами и почему текущая оценка выглядит дорогой.

Key takeaways

— Выручка за полугодие упала на 28,5%, а EBITDA сократилась на 99,0% – операционная деятельность почти перестала приносить прибыль

— Чистый убыток за полугодие составил 7,4% выручки против прибыли 3,0% годом ранее – маржа ушла в минус на фоне падения спроса

— Дивидендная доходность 57,8% за последние 12 месяцев обеспечена выплатами, которые почти втрое превышают чистую прибыль за тот же период

— Чистый долг вырос на 26,2 млрд руб. за полгода и достиг 49,7 млрд руб., а отношение долга к EBITDA LTM составляет 7,0 – уровень, который не оставляет запаса прочности

— Мультипликатор EV/EBITDA LTM равен 7,7 против среднего за три года 4,4 – акции торгуются с премией к собственной истории

— Операционный денежный поток за последние 12 месяцев составил 7,8 млрд руб., но этого недостаточно для покрытия дивидендных выплат и обслуживания долга

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue fell 28.5% in H1, EBITDA down 99.0% – operations barely profitable

In H1 2026, Evrotrans revenue came in at 235.2 bn RUB, down 28.5% year-on-year. EBITDA for the same period plunged 99.0%, with margin shrinking from 9.9% to 0.1%. The company has effectively lost operating profitability.

The cause is a sharp drop in freight demand that neither tariff increases nor cost cuts could offset. Operating leverage worked in reverse: a quarter decline in revenue wiped out nearly all EBITDA.

Net loss of 7.4% of revenue in H1 vs 3.0% profit a year ago – margins turned negative

Net margin for H1 2026 was -7.4% versus 3.0% a year earlier. The company posted a net loss that wiped out prior profits.

The loss was aggravated by higher interest expenses: net debt rose 26.2 bn RUB in six months to 49.7 bn RUB, making debt service unsustainable given collapsing EBITDA.

57.8% dividend yield over trailing 12 months backed by payouts nearly three times net profit

Over the trailing 12 months, Evrotrans paid 17.35 RUB per share, yielding 57.8%. However, net profit for the same period was 4.8 bn RUB, while dividend payouts amounted to roughly 12.4 bn RUB (based on current market cap and yield).

Payouts are nearly three times earned profit, possible only through debt. Our model projects next dividend at 0.0 RUB per share, signaling high chance of cuts or cancellation.

Net debt up 26.2 bn RUB in H1 to 49.7 bn RUB; debt/EBITDA LTM at 7.0 – no safety margin

At the latest balance sheet date, net debt stood at 49.7 bn RUB, up 26.2 bn RUB in H1 and 15.6 bn RUB over 12 months. Net debt/EBITDA LTM is 7.0.

Such leverage is critical: EBITDA LTM is 7.1 bn RUB, and interest expenses likely consume a large part of it. The company is on the edge, and any further downturn could trigger a cash crunch.

EV/EBITDA LTM at 7.7 vs 3-year average of 4.4 – shares trade at premium to own history

Current EV/EBITDA LTM is 7.7, well above the three-year average of 4.4. Investors pay 75% more for each ruble of EBITDA than the average over the past three years.

Meanwhile, P/E LTM is 1.0, reflecting low earnings due to losses, not cheapness. Market cap is 4.8 bn RUB, barely above annual net profit, but EBITDA is insufficient to service debt.

Operating cash flow of 7.8 bn RUB over trailing 12 months insufficient for dividends and debt service

Over the trailing 12 months, operating cash flow was 7.8 bn RUB. This barely covers capex, and with dividend payouts of 12.4 bn RUB (estimate), the shortfall is funded by new borrowing.

Net debt rose 15.6 bn RUB over 12 months, roughly matching dividends and the excess of spending over operating flow. The company is funding shareholder payouts with creditor money.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Evrotrans is in a deep operational crisis: revenue fell 28.5%, EBITDA nearly vanished, and net losses became the norm. The 57.8% dividend yield is not a sign of health but a result of debt-funded payouts, with net debt rising to 49.7 bn RUB. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.7 versus the 4.4 average looks unjustifiably expensive for a company with collapsing margins. Shareholders should brace for possible dividend cuts and further deterioration if the freight market does not recover.