Nornickel: H1 profit doubles, but operating cash flow turns negative

30 июля Норникель раскрыл результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 12,6% до 542,6 млрд руб., EBITDA – на 49,9% до 250,6 млрд руб., чистая прибыль – более чем вдвое до 76,9 млрд руб. Однако операционный денежный поток за полугодие составил минус 22,1 млрд руб. против плюс 75,2 млрд руб. годом ранее. Разберём, что стоит за этими цифрами и почему рынок отреагировал сдержанно.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA grew 49.9% on higher metal prices and a weaker rouble

— Net profit doubled, but almost a third came from other income

— Operating cash flow turned negative on working capital and taxes

— Leverage remains moderate: net debt / EBITDA LTM – 1.67

— Shares trade below their own three-year average: EV/EBITDA LTM – 5.2 vs 6.3

— No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payout

Key figures, RUB bn

EBITDA grew 49.9% on higher metal prices and a weaker rouble

For H1 2026, Nornickel's EBITDA came in at RUB 250.6 bn versus RUB 167.2 bn a year earlier. The 49.9% growth was driven by a 12.6% rise in revenue to RUB 542.6 bn, while cost of sales grew only 9.8%. The EBITDA margin widened from 34.7% to 46.2%.

Revenue from sales of metals and semi-finished products rose to RUB 515.9 bn from RUB 432.0 bn. Other sales added RUB 2.1 bn to reach RUB 26.7 bn. The main driver, judging by the structure, was higher prices for nickel, copper and palladium, plus a weaker rouble, which boosted rouble revenue from export sales.

Net profit doubled, but almost a third came from other income

Net profit for H1 2026 rose 108.4% to RUB 76.9 bn from RUB 58.6 bn a year earlier. The growth was driven by both operating results and lower interest expense: interest payable fell from RUB 97.4 bn to RUB 60.1 bn.

Within pre-tax profit of RUB 103.7 bn, other income was RUB 3.6 bn versus RUB 78.3 bn a year earlier. Thus, unlike last year, when a significant part of profit came from one-off items, this half-year the main source was operating activity. Net margin rose from 13.0% to 24.1%.

Operating cash flow turned negative on working capital and taxes

Net cash from operating activities for H1 2026 was minus RUB 22.1 bn versus plus RUB 75.2 bn a year earlier. Proceeds from sales fell by RUB 42.2 bn to RUB 461.1 bn, while payments to suppliers rose by RUB 41.2 bn to RUB 287.1 bn.

In addition, the company paid RUB 30.3 bn in income tax versus RUB 5.4 bn last year. As a result, operating cash flow did not even cover capital expenditure: investments in fixed assets totalled RUB 59.1 bn. Including financing activities, where the company raised RUB 207.2 bn in loans and borrowings, cash balances fell from RUB 88.3 bn to RUB 63.8 bn.

Leverage remains moderate: net debt / EBITDA LTM – 1.67

At the end of the half-year, Nornickel's net debt stood at RUB 866.0 bn. Over the last 12 months it decreased by RUB 66.5 bn, although it rose by RUB 6.8 bn since the start of the year. Net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months is 1.67, which looks comfortable for a mining company with such a cycle.

Interest expense for the half-year fell by RUB 37.2 bn to RUB 60.1 bn, reflecting both lower rates and debt refinancing. The company was actively raising loans: proceeds from loans and borrowings totalled RUB 207.2 bn, while repayments were RUB 253.7 bn.

Shares trade below their own three-year average: EV/EBITDA LTM – 5.2 vs 6.3

Over the last 12 months, Nornickel's EV/EBITDA stands at 5.2 – well below its three-year average of 6.3. P/E LTM is 6.6. In other words, the market values the company at a discount to its own history, despite strong profit growth.

Shares rose 0.7% on the release but fell 1.3% from the release to August 17. The close before the report was RUB 114.46. Market capitalisation is RUB 1,834.4 bn. The muted reaction is likely due to negative operating cash flow and the absence of dividends.

No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payout

Over the last 12 months, Nornickel paid no dividends – payments were RUB 0.0 per share. Our model estimates the next payout also at RUB 0.0 per share, implying a zero payout ratio.

Meanwhile, the fair yield for this name, in our view, is 12.0%. The absence of dividends despite such high return on equity (ROE – 32.1%) means the company is reinvesting profits in the business, but shareholders receive no cash return. This is likely the main discount in the valuation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Nornickel closed H1 2026 with strong operating dynamics: EBITDA grew 49.9%, net profit doubled, and the margin expanded to 46.2%. However, operating cash flow turned negative, and the company did not even cover capital expenditure. Leverage remains moderate, but the absence of dividends with zero payouts is the main question for shareholders. Shares trade at a discount to their own history, partly reflecting these risks. Watch the working capital trend and the dividend decision.