Head Hunter: revenue stalled while profit fell 16.5% – the dividend gets harder to fund

On 3 November Head Hunter reported third-quarter 2026 results: revenue of RUB 10,965.9 mn (+0.2% year on year), EBITDA of RUB 5,726.7 mn (-7.4%) and net profit of RUB 4,795.5 mn (-16.5%). The EBITDA margin fell to 52.2% from 56.5% a year earlier, and the net margin to 43.7% from 52.5%. The share trades at EV/EBITDA LTM of 6.5 against its own three-year average of 7.4, a 13% discount, with a trailing dividend yield of 15.9%. Our conclusion: fairly valued – the portal model puts the upside at -7%, and the dividend offers no cushion while profit is falling. Our view: the share is fairly valued; upside on the portal model -7%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue has been stuck near zero for three quarters: +0.2% year on year after +0.0% in the second quarter

— EBITDA fell 7.4% and the margin lost 4.3 percentage points, to 52.2%

— Net profit fell 16.5%, more than EBITDA, and the 9.1-point gap sits in lines below the operating line

— Net debt of RUB 1.6 bn against LTM EBITDA of RUB 18.1 bn is 0.09x – leverage is minimal

— The 2026 dividend is RUB 433 per share, a 15.9% yield against the 17.1% we consider fair

— EV/EBITDA of 6.5 against its own three-year average of 7.4 is a 13% discount, but falling profit outweighs it

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue has been stuck near zero for three quarters: +0.2% year on year after +0.0% in the second quarter

In the third quarter of 2026 revenue was RUB 10,965.9 mn, 0.2% more than a year earlier. Growth was zero in the second quarter and revenue fell 1.5% in the first. The pace has barely changed: the company has not left a band of a couple of percent for a year.

For comparison, revenue grew 1.9% in the third quarter of 2025 and 0.4% in the fourth. The slowdown began at the end of 2025 and has not reversed. Over the last twelve months revenue was RUB 41,100.0 mn, a level that quarterly growth rates barely add to.

The reason is scale: the company already covers most of the online recruiting market, and incremental revenue has to come from new segments rather than from expanding the base. So far that search is not adding visibly to the top line.

EBITDA fell 7.4% and the margin lost 4.3 percentage points, to 52.2%

EBITDA in the third quarter was RUB 5,726.7 mn, 7.4% less than a year earlier. With revenue almost flat, that means costs grew faster than income. The EBITDA margin fell to 52.2% from 56.5% in the third quarter of 2025.

Operating profit was RUB 5,255.3 mn, also below last year's level but less so than EBITDA: the gap between them is depreciation, which changes little on a stable asset base. The pressure on the margin comes from operating costs, not from depreciation.

The company itself reports adjusted EBITDA of RUB 5,984.0 mn, its own definition, which is not directly comparable with the reported EBITDA. The RUB 257.3 mn difference shows that the company treats part of its costs as one-off or non-operating, but that does not change the margin, which is calculated on reported EBITDA.

Net profit fell 16.5%, more than EBITDA, and the 9.1-point gap sits in lines below the operating line

Net profit in the third quarter was RUB 4,795.5 mn, 16.5% less than a year earlier. The fall is visibly deeper than EBITDA's (-7.4%): the 9.1-point gap means costs appeared below the operating line that were absent or smaller a year ago.

The net margin fell to 43.7% from 52.5%. With revenue of almost RUB 11 bn, each percentage point of margin is about RUB 110 mn of profit, so the loss of 8.8 points costs roughly RUB 965 mn a quarter.

In the notes to the accounts the company does not disclose which lines below the operating line produced this effect. It is known that in 2026 the company paid dividends for 2025 and for the first half of 2026, but dividends are paid out of profit and do not affect profit itself. The gap between EBITDA and net profit is interest, taxes and other income and expenses, and that is where the shift occurred.

Net debt of RUB 1.6 bn against LTM EBITDA of RUB 18.1 bn is 0.09x – leverage is minimal

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was RUB 1,642.3 mn. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is 0.09. For a company with LTM EBITDA of RUB 18,129.6 mn this is almost no leverage: debt is covered by EBITDA in a little over a month.

Over the quarter net debt moved from RUB 5.7 bn at 30 June 2026 to RUB 1.6 bn at 30 September 2026, a decrease of RUB 4.1 bn. Over twelve months net debt rose: from a net cash position of RUB 6.2 bn at 30 September 2025 to debt of RUB 1.6 bn at 30 September 2026, a change of +RUB 7.9 bn.

The rise over the year comes from intra-group loans: according to the accounts, in the first nine months of 2026 the company issued an interest-free loan of RUB 6.7 bn to IK HeadHunter due in May 2028. This is a redistribution of funds within the group, not external borrowing. With such leverage interest expense barely affects profit, and the fall in net profit is not explained by debt.

The 2026 dividend is RUB 433 per share, a 15.9% yield against the 17.1% we consider fair

Over the last twelve months the company paid RUB 433.0 per share. By calendar year the payments were RUB 907 in 2024, RUB 233 in 2025 and RUB 433 in 2026. The latest payment was RUB 200 per share for the first half of 2026, transferred on 30 September 2026.

Our estimate of the annual dividend is the same RUB 433.0 per share, or 15.9% at the current price of RUB 2,720. On a model payout of 0.81 of profit and a profit base of RUB 17,989 mn the payment fits within profit. But the profit base is trailing-twelve-month profit, and if the 16.5% quarterly fall continues, annual profit will be lower, and so will the dividend.

The 15.9% yield is below the 17.1% we consider fair for this share, and only nominally below the 14.0% key rate: a spread of about 1.9 percentage points does not compensate for the risk of falling profit. The yield history is uneven: 22.8% in 2024, 6.4% in 2025 and 14.9% in 2026 – the company pays out of profit, and the payment moves with it.

A further fall in profit could reduce the payment: with a margin of 43.7% and revenue standing still, each percentage point of margin is about RUB 110 mn of profit a quarter. If the fall in profit accelerates, the board may revise the payout ratio, and the dividend would come in below RUB 433.

EV/EBITDA of 6.5 against its own three-year average of 7.4 is a 13% discount, but falling profit outweighs it

On EV/EBITDA LTM the share trades at 6.5 against its own three-year average of 7.4, a 13% discount. That is cheaper than the company has been on its own over the past three years. But a discount to its own history is not a cushion if profit is falling: the multiple is calculated on EBITDA, which fell 7.4% in the third quarter.

On EV/EBITDAC LTM, the multiple adjusted for capitalised development costs, the share is worth 6.5, practically the same as on EV/EBITDA. For a company that capitalises development, this means the adjustment barely changes the valuation: capitalised development is small relative to EBITDA.

P/E LTM is 7.3, which looks low for a company with a net margin of 43.7%. But trailing-twelve-month profit of RUB 17,508.3 mn includes quarters with higher profit than the third quarter of 2026. If the current profit level persists, P/E will be higher.

Our valuation model – EBITDA growth times the target multiple – puts the upside at -7% to the current price. The model captures both the fall in EBITDA and the discount to history, and together they produce a small negative. This is not the market or a consensus, but our own estimate.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The strength of the report remains the balance sheet: net debt of RUB 1.6 bn against LTM EBITDA of RUB 18.1 bn is 0.09x, and the company covers its obligations easily. But the operating picture is weak: revenue has been flat for three quarters, EBITDA fell 7.4% and net profit 16.5%, with the 9.1-point gap sitting in lines below the operating line. The dividend of RUB 433 per share gives 15.9%, below the 17.1% we consider fair and below what the risk of falling profit requires. The share trades at EV/EBITDA of 6.5 against its own three-year average of 7.4, a 13% discount, but the portal model puts the upside at -7%. Our conclusion: fairly valued – the discount to history does not offset the fall in profit. Our view: the share is fairly valued; upside on the portal model -7%.