Rushydro: Q2 profit up 80%, but debt grew by RUB 216 bn over the year

28 августа Русгидро раскрыла сокращённую консолидированную промежуточную финансовую информацию за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка во втором квартале выросла на 18,7% год к году, до 176 205 млн руб., EBITDA – на 50,1%, до 68 791 млн руб., чистая прибыль – на 80,4%, до 22 833 млн руб. В обзоре – что обеспечило такой рост и почему долговая нагрузка остаётся главным вопросом для акционера.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 18.7% to RUB 176,205 mn – the fastest pace in five quarters

— Q2 EBITDA jumped 50.1% to RUB 68,791 mn, with margin expanding from 30.9% to 39.0%

— Q2 net profit rose 80.4% to RUB 22,833 mn, but H1 growth is a more modest +90.1% YoY

— H1 operating cash flow rose 65.1% to RUB 131,261 mn, but capex consumed nearly all of it

— Net debt reached RUB 776,347 mn by end-June, up RUB 216.3 bn over 12 months

— Net debt / EBITDA at 2.84 – a level that constrains dividend capacity

— H1 capex rose 21.1% to RUB 158,067 mn – the main consumer of cash flow

Key figures, RUB bn

Q2 revenue grew 18.7% to RUB 176,205 mn – the fastest pace in five quarters

In Q2 2026, Rushydro's revenue reached RUB 176,205 mn, up 18.7% year-on-year. This is an acceleration compared with previous quarters: Q1 2026 growth was 19.0%, Q4 2025 – 15.2%, and Q3 2025 – 12.1%. Thus, revenue growth remains double-digit and even slightly accelerated.

The main contribution came from the 'Rushydro Generation' and 'Far East Energy Companies' segments. In H1, generation revenue rose from RUB 120,252 mn to RUB 146,802 mn, and Far East segment from RUB 153,323 mn to RUB 178,036 mn. Higher wholesale electricity and capacity sales, as well as increased subsidies for the Far East, supported the results.

Q2 EBITDA jumped 50.1% to RUB 68,791 mn, with margin expanding from 30.9% to 39.0%

Q2 2026 EBITDA reached RUB 68,791 mn versus RUB 45,839 mn a year earlier – up 50.1%. EBITDA margin expanded from 30.9% to 39.0%. This is a significant improvement in profitability, not explained by revenue growth alone.

The key factor is that operating expenses excluding depreciation and impairment rose only 10.4% in H1 (from RUB 278,940 mn to RUB 305,555 mn), while revenue grew 18.9%. Operating leverage worked amid higher electricity and capacity prices, as well as increased subsidies for the Far East, which rose from RUB 32,343 mn to RUB 41,106 mn in H1.

Q2 net profit rose 80.4% to RUB 22,833 mn, but H1 growth is a more modest +90.1% YoY

Q2 2026 net profit reached RUB 22,833 mn versus RUB 12,658 mn a year earlier – up 80.4%. In H1, profit rose from RUB 31,596 mn to RUB 60,068 mn, i.e. by 90.1%. The Q2 pace is slightly below the half-year figure, but still impressive.

Profit growth was driven by operating leverage: EBITDA grew faster than revenue, and finance costs in H1 even declined – from RUB 36,561 mn to RUB 35,418 mn – despite higher debt. This became possible thanks to the CBR key rate cut from 16.00% to 14.25% in H1 2026.

H1 operating cash flow rose 65.1% to RUB 131,261 mn, but capex consumed nearly all of it

H1 2026 operating cash flow reached RUB 131,261 mn versus RUB 79,525 mn a year earlier – up 65.1%. This is a strong result, reflecting improved operational efficiency and working capital control: receivables decreased by RUB 4,110 mn, inventories by RUB 1,325 mn.

However, H1 capex rose to RUB 158,067 mn (H1 2025: RUB 133,283 mn), exceeding operating cash flow. The gap was covered by new borrowings: net inflow from loans was RUB 66,619 mn (proceeds RUB 331,032 mn, repayments RUB 264,413 mn).

Net debt reached RUB 776,347 mn by end-June, up RUB 216.3 bn over 12 months

As of June 30, 2026, Rushydro's net debt stood at RUB 776,347 mn. It increased by RUB 28.8 bn in Q2 and by RUB 216.3 bn over the last 12 months. Leverage remains high: net debt / EBITDA for the last 12 months is 2.84.

The debt increase stems from the large investment program: H1 capex exceeded operating cash flow by RUB 26.8 bn. The company finances construction with borrowed funds, and so far this has not led to debt reduction. Interest expenses in H1 fell only 3.1% to RUB 35,418 mn, despite higher debt, reflecting lower rates.

Net debt / EBITDA at 2.84 – a level that constrains dividend capacity

Net debt / EBITDA for the last 12 months stands at 2.84. This is a moderately high level for a company with regulated tariffs and stable cash flow, but it leaves little room for dividend increases. Over the last 12 months, no dividends were paid, and our model estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share.

At the same time, the fair yield for this name, in our view, is 10.5%, with a payout ratio of 0.3 of profit. If the company maintains its current debt level and continues to increase capex, dividend payments in the coming years will remain in question.

H1 capex rose 21.1% to RUB 158,067 mn – the main consumer of cash flow

H1 2026 capex reached RUB 158,067 mn versus RUB 133,283 mn a year earlier – up 21.1%. The bulk came from the 'Rushydro Generation' segment – RUB 115,185 mn, up 42.7% year-on-year (RUB 80,694 mn). This reflects the continued construction of hydroelectric plants, including Zagorskaya PSP-2.

Capex growth is the key driver of debt increase. H1 operating cash flow (RUB 131,261 mn) does not cover capex, and the deficit is financed by borrowings. Until investments generate comparable EBITDA growth, leverage will remain elevated.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report shows strong operational dynamics: revenue and EBITDA are growing at double-digit rates, margins are expanding, and net profit rose 80.4%. However, this growth is accompanied by rising debt – net debt increased by RUB 216.3 bn over the year, and net debt / EBITDA reached 2.84. Capex exceeds operating cash flow, and the company finances construction with borrowings. For shareholders, the key question is when investments will start generating returns and allow debt reduction, thereby opening the door to dividends. For now, profit growth is largely driven by operating leverage and lower rates, not by sustainable debt reduction.