IDGC Center: Q2 profit up 2.1x, but the real story is EBITDA margin at 29%

28 августа МРСК Центра раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 13,8% год к году, до 38 040 млн руб., EBITDA — на 33,6%, до 11 023 млн руб., а чистая прибыль — на 114,7%, до 4 550 млн руб. Акции выглядят привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (1,53) заметно ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (2,12), долговая нагрузка умеренная, а по модели портала потенциал роста — +25%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 13.8% YoY — the fastest pace in five quarters

— EBITDA margin reached 29.0% versus 24.7% a year earlier — up 4.3 pp

— Net profit doubled on operating leverage and lower interest expense

— Leverage remains low: net debt / EBITDA LTM at 0.88

— H1 capex rose 9.9% YoY, but operating cash flow covers it

— No dividends paid over the last 12 months, but the model implies a 0.4 payout

— The portal's model puts fair value 25% above the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Q2 revenue grew 13.8% YoY — the fastest pace in five quarters

In Q2 2026, IDGC Center's revenue reached RUB 38,040 million, up 13.8% YoY. This is an acceleration from the prior quarters: Q1 2026 grew 13.3%, Q4 2025 grew 13.0%. The company has been steadily increasing its growth rate for five consecutive quarters.

The main driver remains electricity transmission, which brought in RUB 36,190.6 million in the quarter, or 95% of revenue. Grid connections added another RUB 2,738.5 million. Tariff growth and higher volumes support the trend, although the company does not break down the drivers in the report.

EBITDA margin reached 29.0% versus 24.7% a year earlier — up 4.3 pp

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 33.6% YoY to RUB 11,022.9 million, while the EBITDA margin expanded from 24.7% to 29.0%. This is a significant improvement in profitability — the company is growing faster in profit than in revenue.

The source of margin growth, judging by the report, is revenue outpacing operating expenses. In H1 2026, personnel costs rose 16.2%, material costs rose 18.3%, while revenue grew 13.5% (for the half-year). However, in Q2 the operating leverage effect was stronger: EBITDA grew 2.4 times faster than revenue.

Net profit doubled on operating leverage and lower interest expense

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached RUB 4,550.0 million, up 114.7% YoY. The more-than-doubling is explained not only by higher EBITDA but also by lower finance costs: in H1 2026, interest expense on financial liabilities fell 14.9% versus the same period last year.

The net margin doubled from 6.3% to 12.0%. This shows the company is not only earning more at the operating level but also managing its debt burden more efficiently.

Leverage remains low: net debt / EBITDA LTM at 0.88

At the end of Q2 2026, IDGC Center's net debt stood at RUB 33,136.3 million, down RUB 0.6 billion from the previous reporting date and RUB 2.8 billion lower than a year earlier. The net debt / EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 0.88, a comfortable level for a grid company.

Debt is declining amid growing operating cash flow: over the last twelve months it reached RUB 29,500 million, which comfortably covers capital expenditures. Interest expenses in H1 fell 14.9% YoY, providing an additional boost to net profit.

H1 capex rose 9.9% YoY, but operating cash flow covers it

In H1 2026, IDGC Center's capital expenditures totaled RUB 13,180.5 million, up 9.9% from the same period in 2025 (RUB 11,993.7 million). The capex increase reflects the company's investment program aimed at grid modernization.

Operating cash flow for H1 grew 10.2% to RUB 15,845.8 million, fully covering investments. Free cash flow remains positive, supporting financial stability and creating a base for future dividends.

No dividends paid over the last 12 months, but the model implies a 0.4 payout

Over the last 12 months, IDGC Center paid no dividends — payments were RUB 0.0 per share. However, the portal's model estimates a fair dividend yield for this name at 10.5%, implying a payout ratio of 0.4 of profit.

If the company returns to paying dividends at that level, the shares could offer substantial yield. But for now, this is only a model estimate — the actual decision will depend on the board and financial results.

The portal's model puts fair value 25% above the current price

Our fundamental value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth times the target multiple, shows that IDGC Center's shares have +25% upside to fair value. This is 'on the portal's model', not a market consensus.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 1.53, well below its three-year average of 2.12. Even considering a possible slowdown in tariff growth, the current valuation looks undervalued relative to its own history.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

IDGC Center delivered a strong quarter: revenue accelerated to 13.8%, EBITDA margin reached 29%, and net profit doubled thanks to operating leverage and lower interest expense. Leverage remains low, and operating cash flow covers investments. At the same time, the shares trade at a discount to their own history (EV/EBITDA 1.53 versus the 2.12 average), supporting a positive view. The key question is whether tariff dynamics will persist and whether the company will resume dividends. For now, we view the shares as attractive.