Mosenergo: Q2 2026 loss – EBITDA down 77.7%, yet dividend yield stays double-digit

5 августа 2026 года Мосэнерго раскрыла сокращённую промежуточную консолидированную финансовую отчётность за второй квартал и первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка во втором квартале выросла на 15,3% год к году, до 61 160 млн руб., однако EBITDA упала на 77,7%, до 916 млн руб., а чистый убыток составил 1 911 млн руб. против прибыли 3 134 млн руб. годом ранее. В обзоре разберём, что стоит за провалом операционной рентабельности, как чувствует себя денежный поток и почему акции сохраняют привлекательность для дивидендных инвесторов.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 15.3% in Q2, but EBITDA plunged 77.7% – operating loss of RUB 3,152 million

— Net loss of RUB 1,911 million – first in recent quarters, yet cash flow remains positive

— EBITDA margin in Q2 was 1.5% versus 7.8% a year earlier – pressure on profitability

— Debt burden: net debt negative, net debt/EBITDA LTM at -0.73

— Dividend yield 36.3% over 12 months – payouts almost fully cover profit

— Capex in Q2 fell to RUB 2,400 million, operating cash flow – RUB 6,352 million

— Valuation: EV/EBITDA LTM 0.87 versus 3-year average 2.46 – shares trade at a discount to own history

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue grew 15.3% in Q2, but EBITDA plunged 77.7% – operating loss of RUB 3,152 million

In Q2 2026, Mosenergo's revenue reached RUB 61,160 million, up 15.3% year-on-year. Growth was driven by the 'Electricity and Capacity' segment (revenue of RUB 40,063 million) and 'Heat Energy' (RUB 20,006 million). However, operating expenses rose faster – to RUB 63,981 million versus RUB 52,489 million a year earlier, leading to an operating loss of RUB 3,152 million.

EBITDA in Q2 fell 77.7% to RUB 916 million versus RUB 4,116 million in Q2 2025. The EBITDA margin contracted from 7.8% to 1.5%. The main reason was higher costs, including increased fuel and repair expenses, as reflected in the operating expense dynamics.

Net loss of RUB 1,911 million – first in recent quarters, yet cash flow remains positive

In Q2 2026, Mosenergo posted a net loss of RUB 1,911 million versus a profit of RUB 3,134 million a year earlier. The loss was driven by the negative operating result, as well as an impairment loss on financial assets of RUB 331 million and a share of losses from associates of RUB 434 million.

Despite the loss, operating cash flow remained positive at RUB 6,352 million for the quarter. This was supported by significant non-cash adjustments, including depreciation of RUB 8,115 million for the first half. Thus, the company continues to generate cash despite weak operating profit.

EBITDA margin in Q2 was 1.5% versus 7.8% a year earlier – pressure on profitability

EBITDA margin in Q2 2026 fell to 1.5% from 7.8% in Q2 2025. This reflects operating expenses growing faster than revenue. The report shows that fuel and repair costs likely increased, although a detailed breakdown is not disclosed in the interim statements.

The low margin in Q2 is typical for the seasonal decline in heat demand, but this year the drop was deeper than a year earlier. For the first half, the EBITDA margin was 11.2% (EBITDA of RUB 20,120 million in Q1 and RUB 916 million in Q2), below the prior year's level, when H1 EBITDA was RUB 20,343 million (RUB 16,227 million in Q1 and RUB 4,116 million in Q2).

Debt burden: net debt negative, net debt/EBITDA LTM at -0.73

At the end of Q2 2026, Mosenergo's net debt stood at RUB -25,132 million, meaning cash and financial investments exceed debt. The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the last twelve months was -0.73. Net debt decreased by RUB 6.0 billion over the quarter and by RUB 7.7 billion over 12 months.

Negative net debt implies a net cash position, reducing financial risks and supporting dividend payments. However, it is important to note that the balance sheet includes significant financial assets, including loans to related parties, which generate interest income.

Dividend yield 36.3% over 12 months – payouts almost fully cover profit

Over the last 12 months, Mosenergo paid dividends of RUB 0.4978 per share, providing a yield of 36.3% at the current price. Our model estimates the next payment at RUB 0.5 per share, implying a forward yield of 36.4%. The fair yield for this stock, in our view, is 10.5%, indicating that the market is pricing in significant dividend attractiveness.

The payout ratio is 0.96 of profit, meaning the company distributes almost all net income as dividends. This is confirmed by declared dividends for H1 2026 of RUB 10,800 million, of which RUB 5,816 million is attributable to the parent. Such a policy supports high yields but leaves little room for investment.

Capex in Q2 fell to RUB 2,400 million, operating cash flow – RUB 6,352 million

In Q2 2026, Mosenergo's capital expenditures amounted to RUB 2,400 million, down from RUB 3,373 million in Q2 2025. Operating cash flow for the quarter was RUB 6,352 million, fully covering capex and leaving room for dividends.

For the first half, capex totaled RUB 5,986 million, while operating cash flow was RUB 12,564 million. Free cash flow is positive, providing resources for shareholder payouts. However, with a payout ratio of 0.96 of profit, the company effectively distributes almost all free cash flow.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA LTM 0.87 versus 3-year average 2.46 – shares trade at a discount to own history

Mosenergo trades at an EV/EBITDA LTM multiple of 0.87, significantly below its three-year average of 2.46. This suggests the market values the company at a discount to its own history, possibly due to weak operating results in recent quarters.

The P/E LTM is 44.0, reflecting low net profit over the last twelve months (RUB 1,250 million) due to loss-making quarters. However, the high dividend yield (36.3%) and negative net debt make the stock attractive for income investors despite operational difficulties.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, Mosenergo posted weak operating results: losses at EBITDA and net profit levels, with margin falling to 1.5%. Nevertheless, the company maintains positive operating cash flow and negative net debt, allowing it to sustain generous dividends. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can restore profitability during the heating season, or whether low electricity prices and rising costs become a long-term trend. At the current valuation (EV/EBITDA 0.87), the market has already priced in a pessimistic scenario, but the 36.3% dividend yield remains the main argument for holding the stock.