Positive: revenue accelerated to +59.2%, but the nine months remain loss-making on seasonality

On 10 November, Positive (PAO Gruppa Pozitiv) released its Q3 2026 results. Quarterly revenue reached RUB 6,606.5 mn (+59.2% YoY versus +38.9% in Q2), EBITDA – RUB 1,846.1 mn (+210.4%), net profit – RUB 664.0 mn against a RUB 743.9 mn loss a year earlier. Over the nine months the group stayed loss-making at RUB 700.2 mn, because almost the entire annual result traditionally lands in Q4. Our conclusion: rather attractive – the portal model puts upside to fair value at +89%, and EV/EBITDA LTM of 6.3 sits against its own three-year average of 15.5. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +89%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue accelerated to +59.2% on licences, not on hardware

— EBITDA margin of 27.9% rose on operating leverage, not on cost cuts

— Quarterly profit of RUB 664.0 mn rests on interest income and one-off FX effects

— Debt of RUB 13.9 bn at 0.77 EBITDA LTM is a level, not an alarm

— Quarterly capex of RUB 1,567.0 mn eats profit but not cash flow

— The RUB 28.08 dividend yields only 2.1% – below the 7.0% we consider fair

— EV/EBITDAC of 10.8 versus EV/EBITDA of 6.3 – capitalised development changes the picture

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue accelerated to +59.2% on licences, not on hardware

Q3 revenue reached RUB 6,606.5 mn, 59.2% more than a year earlier and faster than the +38.9% of Q2. The acceleration came from IT-product licences: RUB 5,134.7 mn against RUB 3,361.6 mn a year earlier, a 1.5-fold increase. Hardware-software complexes grew more modestly – RUB 471.1 mn against RUB 169.9 mn – while information-security services rose to RUB 994.0 mn from RUB 610.3 mn.

Over the nine months revenue reached RUB 16,148.0 mn against RUB 10,906.1 mn a year earlier. Shipments, a management metric, were RUB 18,329.8 mn net of VAT over the same period – RUB 1,123.1 mn above revenue, because some licences and certificates are recognised evenly while shipped at a point in time. The gap between shipments and revenue is wider than last year's RUB 556.9 mn, which means part of the revenue is still ahead.

Distributor concentration remains high: 78% of nine-month revenue came from five large partners against 82% a year earlier. Receivables from these buyers fell to RUB 5,625.1 mn from RUB 20,817.3 mn at end-2025 – client money has arrived, confirming the quality of the quarterly growth.

EBITDA margin of 27.9% rose on operating leverage, not on cost cuts

Quarterly EBITDA reached RUB 1,846.1 mn against RUB 594.8 mn a year earlier, and the margin rose to 27.9% from 14.3%. Operating profit reached RUB 896.4 mn against a RUB 211.2 mn loss a year earlier. The margin gain is not from cost cuts: R&D expenses rose to RUB 1,382.5 mn from RUB 972.6 mn, and G&A to RUB 1,163.7 mn from RUB 806.1 mn. Leverage worked because revenue grew faster than costs.

Quarterly cost of sales was RUB 1,254.7 mn against RUB 915.4 mn, but its share of revenue fell to 19.0% from 22.1%. Amortisation of group-created intangibles – RUB 699.6 mn – grows slower than revenue, and that is the main source of the margin improvement. Selling expenses grew more modestly than revenue – RUB 1,333.3 mn against RUB 1,189.3 mn.

Over the nine months EBITDA was RUB 2,695.0 mn against negative RUB 1,892.5 mn a year earlier. But EBITDAC, the management metric including capitalised expenses, stayed negative over the nine months – minus RUB 505.5 mn against minus RUB 6,013.2 mn a year earlier. The gap between EBITDA and EBITDAC – RUB 4,324.0 mn of capitalised expenses – is what defines the group's real economics.

Quarterly profit of RUB 664.0 mn rests on interest income and one-off FX effects

Quarterly net profit reached RUB 664.0 mn against a RUB 743.9 mn loss a year earlier, a margin of 10.1% against minus 17.9%. But operating profit contributed only RUB 896.4 mn, while interest expenses were RUB 507.2 mn. Interest income brought RUB 424.4 mn, and without it pre-tax profit would have been noticeably smaller. Income tax was RUB 157.9 mn.

Profit attributable to the company's owners is only RUB 400.1 mn; the remaining RUB 263.9 mn went to non-controlling interests. This follows the acquisition of 32.86% of a software developer on 10 September 2026: the deal added a non-controlling stake and changed the capital structure. Over the nine months, loss per share was RUB 13.40 against RUB 80.89 a year earlier.

Over the nine months the group posted a loss of RUB 700.2 mn against RUB 5,760.5 mn a year earlier. The loss persists because almost the entire annual result arrives in Q4: in 2025 Q4 delivered RUB 13,034.1 mn of net profit while the first three quarters were loss-making. This year follows the same path, and the quarterly profit of RUB 664.0 mn is the first positive result in three quarters.

Debt of RUB 13.9 bn at 0.77 EBITDA LTM is a level, not an alarm

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was RUB 13,870.2 mn against RUB 13,057.3 mn at 30 June 2026 (+RUB 0.8 bn) and RUB 21,657.6 mn at 30 September 2025 (–RUB 7.8 bn over the year). The net debt to EBITDA LTM ratio is 0.77, meaning debt is below annual EBITDA. Total debt on the balance sheet is RUB 24,904.4 mn, cash – RUB 12,058.5 mn.

The year-on-year decline in debt is explained by strong operating cash flow: over the nine months it was RUB 15,053.5 mn against RUB 3,953.3 mn a year earlier. The driver is working-capital release: receivables fell by RUB 15,331.6 mn. Interest paid was RUB 1,424.4 mn, income tax – RUB 429.8 mn.

Short-term loans and borrowings are RUB 10,168.3 mn, long-term – RUB 15,317.6 mn. The group raised RUB 4,970.0 mn of new loans over the nine months and repaid RUB 3,443.0 mn. Interest expenses for the nine months were RUB 1,447.9 mn against RUB 2,686.5 mn a year earlier: debt is getting cheaper along with the rate.

Quarterly capex of RUB 1,567.0 mn eats profit but not cash flow

Quarterly capital expenditure was RUB 1,567.0 mn; over the nine months, RUB 5,069.2 mn went into creating intangibles plus RUB 189.9 mn into fixed assets. That is comparable to quarterly EBITDA of RUB 1,846.1 mn: almost all of EBITDA goes into development. This is why EBITDAC over the nine months is negative – minus RUB 505.5 mn.

Operating cash flow over the nine months was RUB 15,053.5 mn, comfortably covering capital expenditure of RUB 5,259.1 mn. Free cash flow is positive, and that allows the group to reduce debt and pay dividends. Over the nine months RUB 1,999.7 mn of dividends were paid.

Capitalisation of development is the key feature of the model: R&D expenses over the nine months were RUB 3,384.2 mn, but RUB 4,324.0 mn was capitalised. Amortisation of group-created intangibles – RUB 1,984.5 mn over the nine months – gradually returns these costs to the income statement.

The RUB 28.08 dividend yields only 2.1% – below the 7.0% we consider fair

Over the last 12 months RUB 28.08 per share was paid, a current yield of 2.1%. Our annual dividend estimate is the same RUB 28.08 per share, a forward yield of 2.1% at the price of RUB 1,309.4. That is well below the 7.0% yield we consider fair for this name and below the 14.0% key rate.

The dividend history is uneven: RUB 99.19 per share for 2024, RUB 72.61 for 2023, RUB 19.56 for 2022. The current RUB 28.08 is one of the lowest levels. The dividend-potential model assumes a payout of 0.54 of profit on a base of RUB 7,274.0 mn and is not constrained by free cash flow.

The dividend could be smaller if Q4 profit comes in below last year's RUB 13,034.1 mn, or if the group directs free cash flow into new acquisitions like the 10 September 2026 deal. The board decides, and the annual result depends on Q4, which carries the bulk of profit.

EV/EBITDAC of 10.8 versus EV/EBITDA of 6.3 – capitalised development changes the picture

EV/EBITDAC LTM is 10.8, the correct measure for a company that capitalises development. EV/EBITDA LTM is 6.3, but it flatters profitability because it ignores RUB 4,324.0 mn of capitalised expenses. On EBITDAC the discount to its own history is smaller but still present: EV/EBITDA of 6.3 against a three-year average of 15.5 – a 59% discount.

P/E LTM is 7.6, inexpensive for a growing company. Return on equity is 12.1%. Market capitalisation is RUB 93,247.6 mn. On the portal model, upside to fair value is +89%. The model is built on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, and it does not account for the dividend yield, which is low for this name.

The share is held in our live model strategies RU GARP + acceleration and RU Growth-potential (quality). That is a fact of screen membership, not an argument for the verdict. The assessment rests on multiples and the model, not on portfolio composition.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

What was strong in the report was the acceleration of revenue to +59.2% and the rise in EBITDA margin to 27.9% – operating leverage worked, and the quarter turned profitable. But the RUB 664.0 mn profit rests on interest income and one-off effects, and over the nine months the group is still loss-making at RUB 700.2 mn. Debt of RUB 13.9 bn at 0.77 EBITDA LTM is not a problem, and operating cash flow of RUB 15,053.5 mn over the nine months covers both capex and dividends. The real question for a holder is valuation: EV/EBITDA of 6.3 against its own three-year average of 15.5 and the +89% upside on the portal model outweigh the weak 2.1% dividend yield. Our conclusion: rather attractive – the portal model puts upside to fair value at +89%. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +89%.