Promomed: revenue and EBITDA +76%, but operating cash flow turned negative to RUB 1.8 bn

31 августа Промомед раскрыл результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 76% до 22,8 млрд руб., EBITDA – на 76% до 7,7 млрд руб., чистая прибыль – на 83% до 2,6 млрд руб. Рост обеспечила Эндокринология (+243% г/г), но операционный денежный поток составил минус 1,8 млрд руб. против минус 0,7 млрд руб. годом ранее. Разбираем, за счёт чего компания растёт быстрее рынка в пять раз и почему деньги пока не превращаются в свободный поток.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +76% driven by Endocrinology segment, which grew 243% to RUB 16.3 bn

— EBITDA margin 33.8% – 2 p.p. above last year, but operating cash flow negative

— Net debt rose by RUB 5.5 bn over 12 months to RUB 16.8 bn, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at 1.16

— Dividend over the last 12 months – RUB 8 per share, yield 2.1%

— Shares fell 3.6% after the report despite a rise on the release day

— Company confirmed 2026 guidance: revenue growth 60% with EBITDA margin 45%

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue +76% driven by Endocrinology segment, which grew 243% to RUB 16.3 bn

For H1 2026, Promomed's revenue reached RUB 22.8 bn, up 76% year-on-year. The main contribution came from the Endocrinology segment: sales grew 243% to RUB 16.3 bn, accounting for 71% of total revenue. The driver was the drug Tirzetta®, which, according to DSM Group, was the best-selling drug in Russian pharmacies in 2026.

The Oncology segment, in contrast, declined 39% to RUB 2.6 bn. The company attributes this to a change in the plan of primary shipments to suppliers: key tenders are concentrated in H2. The Other Drugs segment remained flat at RUB 4.0 bn. As a result, the share of strategic areas (Endocrinology and Oncology) in revenue rose from 69% to 83%.

EBITDA margin 33.8% – 2 p.p. above last year, but operating cash flow negative

EBITDA for H1 2026 grew 86% to RUB 7.7 bn, with margin at 33.8% versus 31.8% a year earlier. The margin expansion came from gross profit: its margin rose from 61% to 67% due to a portfolio shift toward higher-margin drugs. Selling expenses grew in absolute terms due to advertising and headcount expansion, but their share of revenue fell 0.5 p.p. to 13.1%.

However, operating cash flow for the half-year was minus RUB 1.8 bn versus minus RUB 0.7 bn a year earlier. The reason is the growth in net working capital to RUB 29.7 bn from RUB 21.4 bn. The company attributes this to an increase in quality receivables and inventory for production. Free cash flow turned negative to RUB 4.5 bn versus minus RUB 2.1 bn in H1 2025.

Net debt rose by RUB 5.5 bn over 12 months to RUB 16.8 bn, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at 1.16

At the end of H1 2026, Promomed's net debt stood at RUB 16.8 bn, up RUB 1.7 bn from the previous reporting date and RUB 5.5 bn over the last 12 months. The increase is related to investments in R&D, commercialization, and production capacity expansion. The net debt to EBITDA LTM ratio is 1.16, within the company's target range.

In March 2026, the company redeemed a bond issue of RUB 3.5 bn and placed two-year bonds of RUB 6.8 bn maturing in 2028. The proceeds were used for refinancing and general corporate purposes. Also, the first issue of structured bonds was repaid by transferring shares, which increased free-float from 6.7% to 8.5% and reduced short-term debt by RUB 1.6 bn.

Dividend over the last 12 months – RUB 8 per share, yield 2.1%

Promomed paid its first-ever dividends: over the last 12 months, RUB 8 per share, yielding 2.1% at the current price. The company also updated its dividend policy, aiming to create a clear mechanism for shareholder participation in growth results. However, with free cash flow of minus RUB 4.5 bn for the half-year, payments are financed by debt rather than operating cash.

Nevertheless, management emphasizes that business growth outpaces the market fivefold and confirms the 2026 guidance: revenue growth of 60% with EBITDA margin of 45%. If the forecast materializes, free cash flow in H2 should improve significantly – including through working capital optimization, which the company expects in future periods.

Shares fell 3.6% after the report despite a rise on the release day

The share price before the report was RUB 365.4. On the release day, the stock rose 0.9%, but by August 17 it had fallen 3.6% relative to that price. Market capitalization stands at RUB 83.1 bn. P/E LTM is 11.6, and EV/EBITDA LTM is 6.9, below its three-year average of 9.3.

The valuation looks moderate given the high growth rates, but investors are likely pricing in the risk that negative operating cash flow and rising debt could limit future dividends. The key question is whether the company can convert revenue growth into cash in H2, as the guidance promises.

Company confirmed 2026 guidance: revenue growth 60% with EBITDA margin 45%

Promomed confirmed its 2026 financial guidance: revenue growth of 60% with EBITDA margin of 45%. In H1, revenue grew 76%, above guidance, but EBITDA margin was only 33.8% – well below the 45% target. This implies that in H2 the margin must rise sharply, which is possible due to seasonality and the shift of some expenses to the beginning of the year.

The company also plans new product launches in H2, including drugs for prostate cancer and HIV infection. Development has been completed and registration certificates obtained for 7 drugs. If launches succeed, this could support faster sales in the budget segment and bring the company closer to meeting its guidance.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Promomed shows impressive revenue and EBITDA growth, outpacing the market fivefold, and confirms an ambitious 2026 guidance. However, behind this growth are negative operating cash flow and rising debt – the company is still financing its development with borrowed funds. Dividends have been paid, but their sustainability depends on the ability to convert profit into cash in H2. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can meet its 45% margin guidance and start generating free cash flow, or whether growth remains 'paper'.