Rusagro: profit nearly vanished, debt load reaches 3.88 EBITDA

On August 28, Rusagro released its results for the first half of 2026. Revenue grew 9.1% to RUB 183.0 billion, but EBITDA fell 28.6% and net profit collapsed 98.8% to RUB 55.9 million. The review shows that operating activities generate a loss and debt load reached 3.88 EBITDA.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 9.1% in H1, but EBITDA fell 28.6% due to rising cost of sales

— Net profit for H1 was only RUB 55.9 million versus RUB 4.8 billion a year earlier

— Operating cash flow for the last 12 months is negative – minus RUB 9.5 billion

— Net debt to EBITDA LTM is 3.88, above the three-year average

— No dividends paid over the last 12 months, model estimates next payout at RUB 0.0 per share

— Capex for H1 declined to RUB 7.9 billion, but free cash flow remains under pressure

— EBITDA margin fell from 11.5% to 7.5% in H1

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue grew 9.1% in H1, but EBITDA fell 28.6% due to rising cost of sales

In H1 2026, Rusagro's revenue reached RUB 183.0 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year. However, cost of sales grew faster – to RUB 161.5 billion, leading to a 34% drop in gross profit.

EBITDA for H1 fell 28.6% to a 7.5% margin versus 11.5% a year earlier. The main reason was higher raw material and production costs, which were not offset by higher product prices.

Net profit for H1 was only RUB 55.9 million versus RUB 4.8 billion a year earlier

Net profit for H1 2026 was RUB 55.9 million, down 98.8% from the same period last year. The company is effectively balancing on the edge of a loss: pre-tax profit is negative at minus RUB 197.9 million, and only a tax income of RUB 253.8 million brought the bottom line into positive territory.

Profit attributable to shareholders is negative at minus RUB 1.4 billion, while non-controlling interests contributed RUB 1.46 billion. This means that core shareholders earned nothing, and the loss was generated in segments controlled by the group.

Operating cash flow for the last 12 months is negative – minus RUB 9.5 billion

Over the last 12 months, Rusagro's operating cash flow was minus RUB 9.5 billion, reflecting pressure on working capital and lower profitability. In H1 2026, operating cash flow was positive at RUB 32.9 billion, but that is insufficient to compensate for previous periods.

A negative operating cash flow means the company spends more than it earns from core operations and must cover the deficit with debt. This is a key driver of rising debt burden.

Net debt to EBITDA LTM is 3.88, above the three-year average

Rusagro's net debt at the end of H1 2026 was RUB 208.9 billion, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last 12 months was 3.88. This is a high level for an agricultural holding, especially given the negative operating cash flow.

For comparison, the three-year average EV/EBITDA is 4.46, but that is a different metric. Nevertheless, the current debt burden looks elevated, and the company may face covenant restrictions or higher debt service costs.

No dividends paid over the last 12 months, model estimates next payout at RUB 0.0 per share

Over the last 12 months, Rusagro paid no dividends – RUB 0.0 per share. Our model estimates the next payout also at RUB 0.0 per share, reflecting the lack of free cash and high debt burden.

With a fair yield of 12.0% and a payout ratio of 0.86 of profit, the company could pay dividends, but the current financial situation does not allow it. Shareholders will have to wait for cash flow recovery.

Capex for H1 declined to RUB 7.9 billion, but free cash flow remains under pressure

Capex for H1 2026 was RUB 7.9 billion, significantly lower than RUB 13.9 billion in the same period last year. The company is cutting investments, likely due to a lack of funds.

However, even with lower capex, free cash flow remains negative due to weak operating generation. Over the last 12 months, operating cash flow is minus RUB 9.5 billion, which does not cover even minimal investments.

EBITDA margin fell from 11.5% to 7.5% in H1

EBITDA margin for H1 2026 was 7.5% versus 11.5% a year earlier. This 4-percentage-point decline reflects worsening price conditions and higher costs.

Net margin for H1 was 0.0% versus 2.9% a year earlier. The company earns almost nothing on shareholders' equity: ROE is only 0.04%, which is extremely low for the agricultural sector.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Rusagro showed weak results for H1 2026 – revenue grew, but profit nearly vanished and operating cash flow over 12 months is negative. Debt load reached 3.88 EBITDA, limiting financial flexibility. No dividends are paid, and their resumption is unlikely in the near term. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can restore profitability and cash flow without increasing debt.