Raspadskaya: loss halves, but operating cash flow still does not cover capex

On August 3, Raspadskaya released its H1 2026 results: revenue fell 4.4% YoY to RUB 57.9 bn, net loss narrowed from RUB 16.6 bn to RUB 8.3 bn. EBITDA margin remained negative, and operating cash flow of RUB 1.9 bn covers less than half of capex. The review shows that the profit improvement is mostly driven by one-off items, while cash flow remains weak.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue fell 4.4% to RUB 57.9 bn due to weak coking coal prices

— EBITDA margin remained negative: -2.4% vs -17.6% a year earlier

— Net loss halved thanks to a one-off reversal of impairment of RUB 1.4 bn

— Operating cash flow of RUB 1.9 bn does not cover capex of RUB 7.8 bn

— Debt rose by RUB 4.6 bn over the half-year, but net cash position remains

— No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payouts

Key figures, RUB bn

H1 revenue fell 4.4% to RUB 57.9 bn due to weak coking coal prices

In H1 2026, Raspadskaya's revenue amounted to RUB 57.9 bn, down 4.4% from RUB 60.5 bn in the same period a year earlier. Almost all revenue — 97% — comes from coking coal sales, and it is the fall in prices for this raw material that was the main driver of the decline.

Product sales brought RUB 56.7 bn versus RUB 59.3 bn a year earlier, services — RUB 1.2 bn, almost unchanged. The company does not disclose sales volumes, but the revenue dynamics point to price pressure rather than a reduction in physical volumes.

EBITDA margin remained negative: -2.4% vs -17.6% a year earlier

EBITDA for H1 2026 was minus RUB 1.4 bn (calculated: revenue of RUB 57.9 bn multiplied by margin of -2.4%), while a year earlier the loss was much deeper — minus RUB 10.6 bn (-17.6% of revenue). The margin improvement is due to lower cost of sales and selling expenses.

Cost of products and services sold fell from RUB 48.5 bn to RUB 43.0 bn, selling expenses — from RUB 23.9 bn to RUB 19.2 bn. Nevertheless, negative EBITDA means that operating activity is still loss-making, and the company does not earn at the operating profit level.

Net loss halved thanks to a one-off reversal of impairment of RUB 1.4 bn

Net loss for H1 2026 was RUB 8.3 bn versus RUB 16.6 bn a year earlier. The improvement of RUB 8.3 bn was driven not only by a lower operating loss (from RUB 21.5 bn to RUB 9.3 bn), but also by one-off items.

In the reporting period, the company recognized a reversal of impairment of RUB 1.4 bn (in the income statement — profit of RUB 1,445 mn), while a year earlier impairment of RUB 1.2 bn was recognized. In addition, income tax gave a positive effect of RUB 1.7 bn versus RUB 4.4 bn a year earlier. Without these one-off factors, the loss would have been larger.

Operating cash flow of RUB 1.9 bn does not cover capex of RUB 7.8 bn

Net cash from operating activities for H1 2026 was only RUB 1.9 bn versus RUB 9.6 bn a year earlier. The main reason is negative net profit adjusted for non-cash items and an outflow in working capital.

Capex (purchases of property, plant and equipment) amounted to RUB 7.8 bn, more than four times the operating flow. As a result, free cash flow is deeply negative: minus RUB 5.9 bn (calculated: RUB 1.9 bn minus RUB 7.8 bn). The company finances the deficit from existing cash and by raising loans.

Debt rose by RUB 4.6 bn over the half-year, but net cash position remains

Net debt as of June 30, 2026 was minus RUB 2.1 bn, meaning cash and equivalents (RUB 5.5 bn) exceed total debt (RUB 7.6 bn, including lease liabilities and short-term borrowings). Over the half-year, net debt increased by RUB 4.6 bn, and over the last 12 months — by RUB 2.9 bn.

The increase in debt is due to negative free cash flow and lease payments. Nevertheless, the company maintains a net cash position, which provides some cushion, but it is melting quickly: over the half-year, cash decreased from RUB 10.9 bn to RUB 5.5 bn.

No dividends paid over the last 12 months; model expects zero payouts

Over the last 12 months, Raspadskaya has not paid dividends, and our model estimates the next payout also at RUB 0.0 per share. With a fair yield of 12% and a payout ratio of 0.25 of profit, the absence of payouts reflects the company's inability to generate profit and free cash flow.

Given negative EBITDA and net loss, dividend payments are unlikely in the near term. Even if profitability recovers, a payout ratio of 0.25 implies shareholders would receive only a quarter of profit, which at the current price gives a low dividend yield.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Raspadskaya halved its net loss, but this was achieved mainly through a one-off reversal of impairment and lower cost of sales, not through sustainable improvement in operating performance. EBITDA remains negative, operating cash flow does not cover capex, and the company is living off accumulated cash. For shareholders, the key question is when coal prices and operational efficiency will allow positive EBITDA and cash flow, and whether the company will have enough liquidity to wait for that moment.