Seligdar: H1 EBITDA doubles, but debt reaches 5.1x EBITDA

28 августа «Селигдар» раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 46,5% год к году, до 41,7 млрд руб., а EBITDA – на 145,6%, до 15,8 млрд руб. Рост обеспечен золотым дивизионом и оловянным направлением, но чистый долг увеличился до 145,1 млрд руб., что соответствует 5,1 EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев. В обзоре разберём, что стоит за этими цифрами и почему рынок оценивает компанию в 6,5 EV/EBITDA.

Key takeaways

— Выручка за полугодие выросла на 46,5% благодаря золоту и концентратам

— EBITDA удвоилась за счёт роста цен и объёмов, маржа расширилась до 31,5%

— Чистая прибыль впервые за четыре квартала положительная – 3,4 млрд руб.

— Долг вырос до 145,1 млрд руб., соотношение Net debt/EBITDA – 5,1

— Капзатраты выросли, но операционный поток остался отрицательным из-за роста запасов

— Дивиденды не выплачивались, модель ожидает нулевые выплаты и впредь

Key figures, RUB bn

H1 revenue up 46.5% on gold and concentrates

For H1 2026, Seligdar's revenue reached RUB 41,662 million, up 46.5% year-on-year. Gold was the main driver: revenue from gold sales rose from RUB 23,897 million to RUB 32,233 million. Concentrate revenue nearly doubled from RUB 4,467 million to RUB 8,570 million.

Q2 was even stronger: revenue grew 59.5% YoY to RUB 26,032 million, following +51.0% in Q3 2025. This shows growth is not one-off but sustained.

EBITDA doubles on prices and volumes, margin expands to 31.5%

EBITDA for H1 2026 reached RUB 15,831 million, up 145.6% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded from 18.8% to 31.5%. The gold division contributed RUB 12,637 million, while the tin division added RUB 3,194 million.

Profitability improved due to higher gold and tin prices and increased sales volumes. Cost growth lagged revenue: operating expenses rose 38.7% to RUB 30,759 million, while revenue grew 46.5%.

Net profit turns positive for the first time in four quarters – RUB 3.4 billion

Net profit for H1 2026 was RUB 3,392 million, versus a loss of RUB 2,157 million a year earlier. In the previous four quarters, the company consistently posted negative net results, ranging from -RUB 2,883 million to -RUB 3,745 million per quarter.

The turnaround was driven by operating profit of RUB 7,309 million and positive FX gains of RUB 6,524 million. Finance costs rose to RUB 9,929 million due to higher debt and interest rates, but this did not offset the operating improvement.

Debt rises to RUB 145.1 billion, Net debt/EBITDA at 5.1

Net debt at end-June 2026 stood at RUB 145,147 million, up RUB 9.9 billion from the previous reporting date and RUB 49.1 billion over the last 12 months. Net debt/EBITDA (LTM) is 5.13.

The debt increase is linked to an active investment programme and working capital build-up. Interest expenses for the half-year rose to RUB 11,219 million from RUB 6,730 million a year earlier, reflecting both higher debt and elevated rates.

Capex rises, but operating cash flow stays negative due to inventory build-up

Capex for H1 2026 was RUB 5,235 million (excluding capitalised interest), up 29.6% YoY. Operating cash flow remained negative at -RUB 8,727 million, though improved from -RUB 13,966 million in H1 2025.

The main reason for the negative flow is inventory build-up of RUB 11,644 million and receivables growth of RUB 4,955 million. The company is increasing gold-in-process and finished goods inventories, requiring significant working capital.

No dividends paid, model expects zero payouts going forward

Over the last 12 months, Seligdar paid no dividends – RUB 0.0 per share. Our model also estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share, implying a zero payout ratio.

The fair yield for the stock, in our view, is 10.5%, and the implied payout ratio is 0.79 of profit. However, given the high debt burden and negative free cash flow, the company is unlikely to pay dividends in the near term.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

H1 2026 was strong for Seligdar: revenue and EBITDA grew at double-digit rates, margins expanded, and net profit turned positive for the first time in four quarters. However, this growth came with debt rising to 5.1x EBITDA and negative operating cash flow due to inventory build-up. The market values the company at 6.5x EV/EBITDA – not expensive, but not cheap given the risks. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can convert operating growth into cash flow and start reducing debt without sacrificing investment.