Gazprom Neft: Q2 2026 EBITDA up 75%, but debt rose by RUB 543 bn over the year

28 августа «Газпром нефть» раскрыла сокращённую промежуточную отчётность за первое полугодие 2026 года. Во втором квартале выручка выросла на 15,6% год к году, до 1 022 238 млн руб., EBITDA – на 75,3%, до 357 696 млн руб., чистая прибыль – на 182,5%, до 195 118 млн руб. В обзоре разберём, что обеспечило такой скачок, как он отразился на денежных потоках и почему долг продолжает расти.

Key takeaways

— Q2 EBITDA up 75% on revenue growth and cost compression

— Net profit doubled, but almost a quarter of it is a FX effect

— Operating cash flow lags profit due to working capital build-up

— Capex for H1 up 9%, but investing cash flow barely changed

— Debt up RUB 543 bn over the year, yet debt/EBITDA multiple stays low

— Interim dividend recommended at RUB 42.51 per share, below the 12-month average

— Stock trades at a discount to its own three-year EV/EBITDA history

Key figures, RUB bn

Q2 EBITDA up 75% on revenue growth and cost compression

In Q2 2026, Gazprom Neft's revenue reached RUB 1,022,238 mln, up 15.6% year-on-year. Growth accelerated after four quarters of decline: in Q1 2026 revenue was 3.7% below Q1 2025.

EBITDA grew faster than revenue – up 75.3% YoY to RUB 357,696 mln. EBITDA margin expanded from 23.1% to 35.0%. The main contribution came from operating expenses: the cost of purchased oil, gas and petroleum products fell 14% (from RUB 186,452 mln to RUB 160,317 mln), and taxes other than income tax decreased 1% (from RUB 247,421 mln to RUB 244,768 mln).

Net profit doubled, but almost a quarter of it is a FX effect

Net profit for Q2 2026 reached RUB 195,118 mln, up 182.5% YoY. Operating profit rose from RUB 91,975 mln to RUB 241,856 mln, and net margin expanded from 7.8% to 19.1%.

However, profit includes one-off items. Net FX gain was RUB 7,663 mln versus a loss of RUB 14,679 mln a year earlier. Excluding this effect, profit growth would have been less impressive, though still substantial.

Operating cash flow lags profit due to working capital build-up

Operating cash flow for Q2 2026 was RUB 170,243 mln, up 14% YoY (RUB 149,308 mln). For H1, OCF rose from RUB 249,378 mln to RUB 293,233 mln – up 17.6%.

However, profit is growing faster: H1 net profit increased 69% (from RUB 174,992 mln to RUB 295,525 mln). The gap is explained by working capital build-up: the total effect of working capital changes for H1 was minus RUB 121,905 mln versus plus RUB 31,752 mln a year earlier. That is, the company increased inventories or receivables, which consumed part of the cash flow.

Capex for H1 up 9%, but investing cash flow barely changed

Capital expenditures for H1 2026 were RUB 242,489 mln (purchases of property, plant and equipment), up 9.2% YoY (RUB 222,112 mln). In Q2, capex was RUB 109,750 mln versus RUB 93,888 mln a year earlier.

Despite higher capex, net cash used in investing activities barely changed: minus RUB 242,284 mln for H1 versus minus RUB 230,900 mln a year earlier. This is because proceeds from sales of fixed assets remained minimal (RUB 454 mln versus RUB 582 mln).

Debt up RUB 543 bn over the year, yet debt/EBITDA multiple stays low

Net debt at the end of Q2 2026 was RUB 1,888,992 mln, up RUB 68.1 bn from the end of Q1 and RUB 543.0 bn from a year earlier. The increase is related to financing capex and dividends.

At the same time, the net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last twelve months is 0.44 – a low level that leaves room for further borrowing. However, the ratio itself has not changed over the year, and one cannot speak of a decrease or increase in leverage.

Interim dividend recommended at RUB 42.51 per share, below the 12-month average

The Board of Directors recommended paying dividends for H1 2026 of RUB 42.51 per share. This is below the average dividend over the last 12 months (RUB 45.41 per share), but still provides a yield of about 9% at the current price.

Our model's next payout estimate is RUB 45.41 per share, implying a forward yield of 9.4%. We consider a fair yield for this name to be 10.5%, meaning the market prices the shares at a slight discount to our target level.

Stock trades at a discount to its own three-year EV/EBITDA history

EV/EBITDA for the last twelve months is 3.86, below the three-year average of 4.07. That is, the market prices the company cheaper than its own history, despite the strong report.

P/E LTM is 6.29, and ROE is 23.9%. Dividend yield for 12 months is 9.16%. Given low debt and strong financials, the stock looks undervalued, but investors seem to be pricing in risks related to rising debt and uncertainty about future dividends.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report is strong: revenue returned to growth, EBITDA and net profit grew at double-digit rates, and margins expanded. However, part of the profit is FX gains, and operating cash flow lags due to working capital build-up. Debt continues to rise, though it remains moderate relative to EBITDA. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can convert profit into cash and maintain dividends at the previous level without increasing leverage.