Samolet: revenue and EBITDA fall, debt load reaches 9.45x — shares decline

31 июля ПАО «ГК «Самолет» раскрыло результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка снизилась на 31,3% год к году, EBITDA – на 39,9%, а чистый убыток составил 19% выручки против прибыли годом ранее. Долговая нагрузка по последним данным достигла 9,45x EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев. В этом обзоре разберём, что стоит за падением показателей, как изменился долг и почему акции после отчёта подешевели.

Key takeaways

— Выручка за полугодие упала на треть, а EBITDA – на 40%, что привело к чистому убытку

— Маржа EBITDA сократилась с 30,5% до 26,6%, а чистая маржа ушла в минус на 19 процентных пунктов

— Долговая нагрузка достигла 9,45x EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев, а чистый долг вырос на 79,6 млрд руб. за год

— Операционный денежный поток за последние 12 месяцев отрицательный – минус 168,5 млрд руб.

— Акции после отчёта выросли на 6,1%, но затем упали на 6,8% к 17 августа

— Дивиденды за последние 12 месяцев не выплачивались, и модель не ожидает выплат в ближайшее время

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue fell by a third in H1, EBITDA by 40%, leading to a net loss

In H1 2026, Samolet's revenue amounted to RUB 8,563.4 million, down 31.3% year-on-year. EBITDA fell 39.9% to 26.6% of revenue, and the net loss reached 19% of revenue versus a profit of 1.1% a year earlier.

The company's main income – guarantee fees – declined from RUB 6,516.8 million to RUB 8,554.8 million for the half-year, reflecting lower business volumes. Administrative expenses decreased but did not offset the revenue decline, while interest payable remained high at RUB 19,823.5 million for the half-year.

EBITDA margin fell from 30.5% to 26.6%, and net margin turned negative by 19 percentage points

EBITDA margin for H1 2026 was 26.6% versus 30.5% a year earlier. The margin decline is due to a faster drop in revenue compared to costs: administrative expenses fell only 51.9%, while revenue declined 31.3%.

Net margin turned deeply negative – minus 19.0% versus plus 1.1% a year earlier. The main contributors to the loss were interest expenses, which were almost twice operating profit, and a negative balance of other income and expenses.

Debt load reached 9.45x EBITDA over the last 12 months, and net debt increased by RUB 79.6 billion over the year

As of the latest reporting date, net debt to EBITDA over the last 12 months stood at 9.45x. Net debt increased by RUB 15.9 billion versus the previous reporting date and by RUB 79.6 billion over the last 12 months, reaching RUB 761.7 billion.

Debt growth occurs amid negative operating cash flow: over the last 12 months it amounted to minus RUB 168.5 billion. The company is raising new loans and borrowings to finance current operations and repay previous obligations, but this only increases the debt burden.

Operating cash flow over the last 12 months is negative – minus RUB 168.5 billion

Over the last 12 months, Samolet's operating cash flow amounted to minus RUB 168.5 billion. This means the company spends more cash on current operations than it receives. The main reason is huge interest payments: in H1 2026 they reached RUB 16.4 billion in the cash flow statement.

Negative operating flow forces the company to attract debt financing. In H1 2026, proceeds from loans and borrowings amounted to RUB 55.4 billion, while repayments totaled RUB 45.8 billion. As a result, net debt continues to grow.

Shares rose 6.1% after the report, but then fell 6.8% by August 17

The share price before the report was RUB 345.6. On the release day, the stock rose 6.1%, but by August 17, 2026, it had corrected 6.8% from the post-report level. Thus, the market overall assessed the results negatively.

The current market capitalization is RUB 21,097.1 million, and EV/EBITDA over the last 12 months is 9.71x, above the three-year average of 9.33x. Shares trade at a premium to their own history despite falling financials.

No dividends were paid over the last 12 months, and the model does not expect payouts in the near future

Over the last 12 months, the company did not pay dividends, and our model estimates the next payment at RUB 0.0 per share. With a fair yield of 12.0% and a payout ratio of 0.29 of profit, the absence of payouts is explained by losses and high debt.

For shareholders, this means the only source of income is capital appreciation, which is currently in question due to weak operating results and growing debt burden.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Samolet's results for H1 2026 were weak: revenue and EBITDA fell, the company posted a net loss, and the debt load reached 9.45x EBITDA. Operating cash flow is negative, forcing increased borrowing. Shares have declined after the report, and at the current EV/EBITDA of 9.71x, the market still values the company above its three-year average. For shareholders, the key question is whether the company can stabilize operating cash flow and start reducing debt; otherwise, losses and burden will only grow.