CoreWeave: revenue up 2.7x, but $9.4bn of capex produced only $2.0bn of operating cash flow

On 10 November CoreWeave reported third-quarter 2026 results: revenue of $3,661m (+168.3% YoY), EBITDA of $2,096m (+207.2%) and a net loss of $709m. Growth accelerated from the second quarter (+112.5%), but capex of $9,441m was triple operating cash flow, and net debt rose from $18.5bn at end-2025 to $43.3bn. Our conclusion: fairly valued – the portal model puts upside at just +6%. Our view: the share is fairly valued; upside on the portal model +6%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 168.3% YoY, an acceleration from 112.5% in the second quarter

— EBITDA margin rose to 57.3% from 50.0% a year earlier, but operating profit was only $207m

— The net loss widened to $709m on $846m of interest expense

— Capex of $9,441m was triple operating cash flow of $1,975m

— Net debt rose from $18.5bn at 31 December 2025 to $43.3bn at 30 September 2026

— A $132.5bn revenue backlog and 2026 revenue guidance of $13.0–13.3bn set the scale of growth

— On the portal model the share sits 6% below fair value – almost no cushion

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 168.3% YoY, an acceleration from 112.5% in the second quarter

Third-quarter revenue was $3,661m against $1,365m a year earlier. Growth of 168.3% is well above the 112.5% of the second quarter – the trend accelerated rather than slowed.

The company attributes growth to infrastructure scaling: more than 200 MW of active power added in the quarter, total active footprint above 1.7 GW and contracted power above 4.6 GW. Revenue rises with capacity coming online, not from one-off items.

The revenue backlog at end-September was about $132.5bn. That is not revenue but committed future obligations under customer contracts; it shows the scale of demand already under contract.

EBITDA margin rose to 57.3% from 50.0% a year earlier, but operating profit was only $207m

EBITDA on the report's basis (operating profit plus depreciation and amortisation) was $2,096m, a 57.3% margin against 50.0% a year earlier. Margin improvement at this growth rate means fixed costs are rising more slowly than revenue.

Operating profit, however, was only $207m – depreciation and amortisation of $1,889m absorbs almost the entire operating result. The company also reports adjusted operating income of $379m, but that is a different measure, stripped of stock-based compensation and acquired-intangible amortisation.

For an investor the point is that a 57.3% EBITDA margin is not an operating margin: it is before depreciation, and after it only 6% of revenue remains.

The net loss widened to $709m on $846m of interest expense

The quarterly net loss was $709m against $110m a year earlier, a net margin of -19.4% versus -8.1%. The main driver is interest expense of $846m against $310m a year earlier: debt has grown and servicing absorbs a rising share of revenue.

The company expects fourth-quarter 2026 interest expense of $1.05–1.15bn – the burden will rise further. Against third-quarter revenue of $3,661m that is already comparable to a quarter of income.

There are one-off items in profit, but they work against the reported result: the company's adjusted net loss is $529m versus a GAAP loss of $709m, so the adjustments reduce the loss rather than create it. Profit is held back by interest and depreciation, not by one-off charges.

Capex of $9,441m was triple operating cash flow of $1,975m

Operating cash flow in the quarter was $1,975m, capex $9,441m. The $7.5bn gap is funded by debt and customer prepayments, not by internally generated cash.

The company raised 2026 capex guidance to $37–39bn from $35–39bn, citing earlier delivery of infrastructure. This is not a one-off spike but the planned level for the year.

Operating cash flow is supported by prepayments: the company expects about $9bn of customer prepayments and deposits in the next three months. That funds growth, but it also means the flow depends on incoming customer cash, not only on services rendered.

Net debt rose from $18.5bn at 31 December 2025 to $43.3bn at 30 September 2026

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was $43.3bn against $18.5bn at 31 December 2025, an increase of $24.9bn. The calculation includes $46.9bn of borrowings and $0.6bn of finance leases less $4.1bn of cash and $0.1bn of short-term investments; $18.7bn of operating lease liabilities is excluded.

Debt is growing faster than revenue: nine-month revenue was $8,314m while net debt added $24.9bn. The company raised about $4.2bn through convertible notes and closed a $2.6bn facility for shorter contracts – funding is diversifying, but the overall burden is rising.

Interest expense of $846m in the quarter is the direct consequence. While capex exceeds operating cash flow, debt will keep growing, and interest with it.

A $132.5bn revenue backlog and 2026 revenue guidance of $13.0–13.3bn set the scale of growth

The company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3bn and adjusted operating income guidance to $1.275–1.375bn, 26% above the midpoint of the prior range. Annualised run-rate revenue guidance to exit 2026 is $20–21bn.

The $132.5bn backlog is a multiple of annual revenue. It confirms demand, but execution depends on capacity coming online: the company expects more than 1.85 GW of active power by year-end.

The customer base is broadening – the release names Canva, Substack, Wayve, OpenAI and Perplexity. Concentration among large AI customers remains, but the list is getting wider.

On the portal model the share sits 6% below fair value – almost no cushion

On the portal model fair value is 6% above the current price. This is our own calculation, not a market consensus or a target price.

Market capitalisation is about $26.9bn against net debt of $43.3bn. The debt burden is comparable to the equity value, so the share is sensitive to the cost of funding: interest expense rising to $1.05–1.15bn in the fourth quarter directly reduces what is left for shareholders.

The market reaction to the report was neutral: the share lost 0.4% on the release day and 0.4% from the release to 10 November. Investors already price in both revenue growth and debt growth.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strength of the report is revenue: growth accelerated to 168.3%, EBITDA margin rose to 57.3% and a $132.5bn backlog confirms demand. The weakness is cash: capex of $9,441m was triple operating cash flow of $1,975m, net debt rose from $18.5bn to $43.3bn, and interest expense of $846m turned $207m of operating profit into a $709m net loss. Growth is funded by debt and prepayments, and the question for a holder now is when operating cash flow will start covering investment. Our conclusion: fairly valued – the portal model puts upside at just +6%. Our view: the share is fairly valued; upside on the portal model +6%.