NOVA LTD.: revenue accelerated to +28.2%, but the cushion to its own history has almost gone

NOVA LTD. reported third-quarter 2026 results in late September: revenue of $287.8m, EBITDA of $98.8m and net profit of $90.0m. Year on year revenue grew 28.2% against 15.9% a quarter earlier – growth accelerated – and the EBITDA margin rose to 34.3% from 31.0% a year earlier. Yet EV/EBITDA on the last twelve months of 33.6x sits exactly at its own three-year average of 33.7x, meaning the market already pays full price for this growth. Our conclusion: rather attractive – on the portal's model the upside to fair value is +16%. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +16%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 28.2% year on year – an acceleration from 15.9% a quarter earlier

— EBITDA rose 42.1%, outpacing revenue, and the margin climbed to 34.3%

— Net profit grew 46.5%, but its level barely diverged from EBITDA

— Operating cash flow of $138.1m was more than double the quarter's EBITDA

— Leverage of 1.68x EBITDA LTM is moderate on net debt of $546.4m

— EV/EBITDA of 33.6x sits exactly at the three-year average of 33.7x – no premium for the acceleration

— On the portal's model the share trades 16% below fair value

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 28.2% year on year – an acceleration from 15.9% a quarter earlier

In the third quarter of 2026 revenue came to $287.8m against $224.6m a year earlier. Growth of 28.2% is markedly faster than the 15.9% posted in the second quarter, and it is the first quarter since early 2025 when the pace not only held but accelerated.

The acceleration runs off a low base: in the third quarter of 2025 revenue grew only 25.5%, and in the fourth just 14.3%. Comparison with such a quarter flatters the current rate, so the durability of 28.2% will only be tested by the next report.

Revenue over the last twelve months stands at $1,000.0m. That is not a growth rate but the sum of four quarters, and it shows the scale of the business the valuation rests on.

EBITDA rose 42.1%, outpacing revenue, and the margin climbed to 34.3%

EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $98.8m against $69.5m a year earlier, up 42.1%. Revenue over the same period grew 28.2%, so costs rose more slowly than income.

The EBITDA margin climbed to 34.3% from 31.0% a year earlier. Operating profit was $92.8m, and the gap between it and EBITDA is small – depreciation in the quarter was modest relative to profit.

The 3.3 percentage point margin improvement is the main source of the EBITDA outperformance. Whether it holds depends on the revenue mix rather than one-off items: the facts single out none.

Net profit grew 46.5%, but its level barely diverged from EBITDA

Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was $90.0m against $61.4m a year earlier, up 46.5%. That is faster than both revenue and EBITDA, but the gap to EBITDA is small: $90.0m against $98.8m.

The net margin rose to 31.3% from 27.3% a year earlier. Profit carries little interest and tax relative to the operating result, so its dynamics repeat those of EBITDA.

Over the last twelve months net profit was $298.9m. That is a level, not a rate: the 46.5% growth belongs to the third quarter and cannot be carried over to the annual sum.

Operating cash flow of $138.1m was more than double the quarter's EBITDA

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was $138.1m against EBITDA of $98.8m. The flow exceeds profit, so the quarter brought in more cash than it booked on an accrual basis.

Capital expenditure was small at $6.4m. With capex at that level almost the whole operating flow stays free, and this is the main argument for the quality of the profit.

Over the last twelve months operating cash flow was $279.2m – less than profit for the same period ($298.9m). The quarterly surge has not yet become an annual norm, and the next report will show whether it was one-off.

Leverage of 1.68x EBITDA LTM is moderate on net debt of $546.4m

Net debt at 30 September 2026 was $546.4m. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is 1.68x, a level that leaves room before typical covenant thresholds.

The ratio cannot be compared with an earlier period: no earlier value is in the facts. This is a level only, not a direction – whether debt rose or fell does not follow from these data.

With EBITDA of $325.8m over the last twelve months, debt service does not look burdensome. The main risk here is not size but that, if growth slows, the ratio is recalculated from a smaller base.

EV/EBITDA of 33.6x sits exactly at the three-year average of 33.7x – no premium for the acceleration

EV/EBITDA on the last twelve months is 33.6x against its own three-year average of 33.7x. The multiple sits exactly at its history, a deviation of minus 1%, so the market neither overpays nor offers a discount.

P/E on the last twelve months is 34.6x on a market capitalisation of $10,350.8m. Return on equity is 24.2%, which supports a high multiple but leaves no room for error.

On the portal's model the upside to fair value is +16%. That is our own estimate, not a market consensus: it rests on EBITDA growth and a target multiple.

On the portal's model the share trades 16% below fair value

Our model sets EBITDA growth times a target multiple against the current market capitalisation. With a market cap of $10,350.8m and EBITDA of $325.8m over the last twelve months, the calculation gives +16% upside.

The multiple does not confirm this: EV/EBITDA of 33.6x against an average of 33.7x says the cushion is almost nil. The two yardsticks diverge, and for this share the model decides – it captures growth that the multiple's history has already absorbed.

Caution is warranted: if the revenue acceleration proves one-off and growth returns to 10–15%, the model recalculates lower. If 28.2% holds, the current price will look conservative.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

What was strong in the report is everything tied to cash: revenue accelerated to 28.2%, EBITDA rose 42.1%, and operating cash flow of $138.1m was more than double the quarter's EBITDA on capex of just $6.4m. Part of this is last year's low base, and the quarterly pace cannot be carried over to the year. The real question for a holder is different: the 33.6x multiple sits exactly at the three-year average of 33.7x, so the market has already paid for the growth, and the only cushion comes from the portal's model with +16% upside. Our conclusion: rather attractive – on the portal's model the upside to fair value is +16%. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +16%.