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Greenfire Resources (GFR) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+23% y/y, Q2 2026)✓Margins improving (23%→34%, Q2 2026)✓Net cash balance sheet

Sector: Oil sands

COMM_GFR

Price chart

5.59 USDDay -1.06%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
5.59 USD · -1.06%
Market cap
701 mln USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
23.5%
Δ EBITDA y/y
81.5%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
—
P/B (FY)
0.8x
P/E (ann.)
4.6x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
16.6x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
4.0x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
-3.5%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+81.4%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
3 mln USD

Shares: yahoo_fundamentals_timeseries/GFR

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK129.0
y/y 23.5%
30.4
y/y 208.6%
14.0
y/y -4.3%
44.4
y/y 81.5%
38.5
y/y 9.1%
25.6-39.6921.6
y/y -2.0%
805.6
y/y 24.2%
19.3%15.2Yahoo Finance
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK107.1
y/y —
-67.3
y/y —
14.9
y/y —
-52.4
y/y —
-53.1
y/y —
1.0-32.1931.7
y/y —
784.8
y/y —
-26.2%1.3Yahoo Finance
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)PARTIAL96.3
y/y —
7.8
y/y —
15.8
y/y —
23.6
y/y —
-6.2
y/y —
25.4-37.2919.9
y/y 0.2%
835.1
y/y 39.2%
4.6%≈ 148.8Yahoo Finance
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK102.4
y/y —
12.8
y/y —
14.7
y/y —
27.5
y/y —
-6.3
y/y —
35.4-2.0936.5
y/y —
631.7
y/y —
-1.3%148.8Yahoo Finance
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK104.5
y/y —
9.9
y/y —
14.6
y/y —
24.4
y/y —
35.2
y/y —
12.8-13.0940.0
y/y —
648.6
y/y —
22.6%179.0Yahoo Finance
2024-12-31FY 2024 (12M)PARTIAL577.5
y/y 19.5%
—
y/y —
59.2
y/y 17.3%
96.5
y/y —
88.6
y/y —
105.5-87.4918.1
y/y 5.6%
599.7
y/y 16.4%
15.9%—Yahoo Finance
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)PARTIAL483.4
y/y —
—
y/y —
50.4
y/y —
-35.7
y/y —
-100.5
y/y —
64.1-33.4869.6
y/y —
515.1
y/y —
——Yahoo Finance

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)17
− Cash & equivalents2
Net debt15

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 0.4x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

-20002004006002023 FY2024 FY2025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

0%25%50%75%2023 FY2024 FY2025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-40-20020402023 FY2024 FY2025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

0501001502002023 FY2024 FY2025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.22x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.20x. Loss years (2023) are left out of the ratio.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.05x1.25x—1.19x2.87x
accruals, % of assets—-2.8%-18.9%-1.8%-6.9%
capex 1.1x of depreciation
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodProduction
boe/d		Operating netback
CAD $/bbl		Realized price
CAD $/bbl		Operating cost
CAD $/bbl
Q2 2026-0613 607
−13.6%		23.46
−33.1%		103.63
+42.9%		16.98
−24.0%
H1 2026-0614 159
−14.8%		23.45
−29.5%		89.44
+15.3%		21.98
−5.8%
Q1 2026-0314 719
−15.9%		23.42
−26.0%		——
Q4 2025-1215 699
−19.0%		35.26
+1.3%		65.20
−17.5%		18.84
−13.7%
FY 2025-1216 169
−16.2%		34.82
+7.2%		73.47
−10.0%		22.02
+2.3%
Q3 2025-0915 757
−17.6%		37.60
+10.6%		73.24
−11.8%		22.52
−5.8%
Q2 2025-0615 748
−17.1%		35.06
−4.4%		72.53
−19.3%		22.35
+9.5%
H1 2025-0616 61733.2877.5923.33
Q1 2025-0317 495
−11.0%		31.67
+28.3%		82.10
+8.9%		24.21
+20.4%
Q4 2024-1219 38434.817921.83
FY 2024-1219 29232.4981.6321.53
Q3 2024-0919 1253483.0123.90
Q2 2024-0618 99336.6889.9320.42
Q1 2024-0319 66724.6975.4120.10

Company reports (PLR coverage review 2026-10-01), extracted with DeepSeek and every number checked against the document text: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027252/ea028156601ex99-1.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027268/ea028059001ex99-1.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027268/ea028059001ex99-3.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026085449/ea030022101ex99-2.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026085449/ea030022101ex99-3.htm

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Proved reserves
408.89 mln boe (2P)
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
69.3 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
5.90 mln boe
2025

Production, mln boe

7.0420245.902025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mln boe (2P)
2025408.89

Production

YearProduction, mln boeper day, mln boe
20255.90
−16.2%		0.02
20247.040.02

Company reports: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027252/ea028156601ex99-1.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027268/ea028059001ex99-1.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026027268/ea028059001ex99-3.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026085449/ea030022101ex99-2.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1966287/000121390026085449/ea030022101ex99-3.htm

Key-commodity price — WTI Crude Oil

Current 94spot vs LTM +30%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: +81.4% ▲ +1.9 pp 1d

Main driver: WTI Crude Oil +31% vs LTM; revenue ×1.29 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 94→157; at 8.3× EV/EBITDA → +81%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
WTI Crude Oil (rev)+95%93.9371.9676.52+31%+6%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue435
LTM EBITDA94
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)340
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.290 (+29%)
= Spot revenue561
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.060 (+6%)
= 3-year-price revenue461
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs354
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs354
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA207
= 3-year-price EBITDA107
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)157
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/projected-EBITDA (75th pct)8.3x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA1 298
Net debt15
Target market cap = EV − net debt1 272
Current market cap701

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +81.4%

Life of mine: 69 yrs

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2022 FY729286+155.2%86640-86.6%
2023 FY483606-20.3%-36-62—
2024 FY577472+22.4%96-68—
2025 FY418499-16.2%126-1—

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -28% vs +19% the year before — a -47.0 pp move. 3-year CAGR -17%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -34% · 2024 +19% · 2025 -28%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 10.0x · target 75th pct (3y) 8.3x · LTM avg 8.7x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Peer comparison

Group: energy (global). Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDA
Equinorglobal108.22.9x
Shellglobal282.75.1x
TotalEnergiesglobal192.25.5x
Suncor Energyglobal82.86.1x
ConocoPhillipsglobal156.76.4x
Chevronglobal378.97.9x
Petrobrasglobal269.08.3x
Marathon Petroleumglobal121.08.4x
Valero Energyglobal119.89.3x
Exxon Mobilglobal680.19.6x
Eniglobal82.110.1x
Phillips 66global102.416.0x
Group median8.1x
Group average8.0x
This companyglobal0.716.6x

Group median 8.1x; this company 16.6x — a 106% premium.

Group average 8.0x; against the average this company is at a 109% premium.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 22.2x, Russia 3.8x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 6.6x, India 18.5x, Indonesia 4.8x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-01; the company's own is live.

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer (checked: Yahoo Finance (ex-div)).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Greenfire Resources (GFR) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s EV/EBITDA?
Greenfire Resources (GFR) trades at 16.6x EV/EBITDA.
What is Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s P/B ratio?
Greenfire Resources (GFR) trades at a P/B of 0.8x.
What is Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s ROE is 19.3%.
What is Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s market capitalization?
Greenfire Resources (GFR)'s market cap is 701 mln USD.

See also: The Cheapest Stocks in the World (2026): What Value Investing Says About Buying Cheap · global valuation map