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Inter RAO (IRAO) USD

Inter RAO is a Russian power holding with thermal generation, electricity retail supply companies, power engineering and equipment businesses, and the country's electricity export-import operator.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+14% y/y, Q2 2026)✓Net cash balance sheet✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 0.2 vs avg 0.5)✗Profit falling (-38% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Margins compressing (10%→7%, Q2 2026)

Sector: Utilities

RU_IRAO

Price chart

2.706 RUBDay -1.47%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
2.706 RUB · -1.47%
Market cap
2.3 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
22.1%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-20.6%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
1.5x
3y avg: 1.9x
P/B (FY)
0.2x
P/E (ann.)
2.0x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
0.2x
3y avg: 0.5x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
0.2x

Cash return

Dividend yield
11.9%
FCF yield (LTM)
-16.3%

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
1.7 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK5.7
y/y 22.1%
0.2
y/y -33.0%
0.1
y/y 12.9%
0.4
y/y -20.6%
0.3
y/y -33.7%
0.1-0.720.1
y/y 7.0%
15.2
y/y 9.8%
7.8%-2.0Report (PDF)
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK6.6
y/y 38.3%
0.5
y/y 21.6%
0.1
y/y 33.1%
0.7
y/y 23.8%
0.6
y/y 14.9%
0.1-0.619.5
y/y 10.9%
14.6
y/y 13.3%
16.1%-4.0Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK6.5
y/y 41.2%
0.2
y/y -21.4%
0.1
y/y 45.8%
0.3
y/y -1.4%
0.2
y/y -30.3%
1.2-1.120.2
y/y 40.3%
14.6
y/y 42.4%
11.4%-2.3Report (PDF)
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK5.3
y/y 29.6%
0.3
y/y 21.4%
0.1
y/y 11.7%
0.4
y/y 18.3%
0.4
y/y 9.0%
0.1-0.418.2
y/y 23.2%
13.5
y/y 25.5%
3.7%-1.8Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK4.6
y/y 24.9%
0.3
y/y 47.5%
0.1
y/y 26.0%
0.5
y/y 40.6%
0.4
y/y 26.0%
0.2-0.418.8
y/y 23.6%
13.9
y/y 23.2%
13.2%-2.8Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK4.8
y/y 10.6%
0.4
y/y -3.2%
0.1
y/y 15.8%
0.5
y/y -0.1%
0.5
y/y -3.3%
-0.1-0.417.6
y/y 23.6%
12.9
y/y 22.5%
17.7%-1.8Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK4.6
y/y 5.8%
0.3
y/y -19.6%
0.1
y/y 15.1%
0.3
y/y -11.8%
0.4
y/y -12.4%
0.7-0.514.4
y/y -0.8%
10.2
y/y -1.4%
15.1%-2.1Report (PDF)
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK4.1
y/y 22.8%
0.2
y/y -24.0%
0.1
y/y 31.0%
0.4
y/y -12.9%
0.4
y/y 12.4%
0.3-0.314.8
y/y —
10.8
y/y —
4.2%-0.8Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK3.7
y/y 0.4%
0.2
y/y -21.8%
0.1
y/y 12.5%
0.3
y/y -14.4%
0.3
y/y 5.2%
0.1-0.315.2
y/y 15.3%
11.3
y/y 13.8%
12.8%-1.4Report (PDF)
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK4.3
y/y -11.8%
0.4
y/y -21.2%
0.1
y/y -14.6%
0.5
y/y -20.2%
0.5
y/y -5.7%
0.2-0.214.2
y/y -15.7%
10.5
y/y -12.7%
20.3%-2.8Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK4.2
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.1
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
1.0-0.414.5
y/y —
10.4
y/y —
—-3.3Report (PDF)
2023-09-30Q3 2023 (3M)PARTIAL3.3
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.1
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.2-0.1—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—-2.9Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK3.7
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.1
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.1-0.113.2
y/y —
9.9
y/y —
12.1%-3.3Report (PDF)
2023-03-31Q1 2023 (3M)OK4.9
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
0.1
y/y —
0.7
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
0.0-0.116.9
y/y —
12.1
y/y —
—-3.7Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)276
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)843
− Cash & equivalents3 117
Net debt-1 999

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -1.1x

Conversion to USD. Balance sheet: rate effective on 2026-06-30, fixing date 2026-06-30. Flows: sampled average at each calculation period's bounds and monthly 15ths. Latest source row: 2026-04-01 — 2026-06-30. Source: Bank of Russia R01235. Rates

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

02 0004 0006 0008 0002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)

-2 000-1 00001 0002 0002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

-4 000-3 000-2 000-1 00002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit is broadly cash-backed
In a typical year of 2020–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.90x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.41x.
year20202022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.35x1.11x0.90x0.78x0.74x
accruals, % of assets-3.5%-1.1%1.0%2.2%2.2%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 0.96x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA -1.1x · EBIT covers interest 6.7x · capex 3.2x of depreciation · dividends 2% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth steady →
Last-year revenue growth +14% vs +14% the year before — a -0.2 pp move. 3-year CAGR +12%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +7% · 2024 +14% · 2025 +14%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 0.3x · 3-year 75th pct 0.7x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Utilities. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
IDGC Center & VolgaRussia0.81.2x1.2x
Rosseti Moscow RegionRussia1.11.5x1.5x
FGC UESRussia1.61.7x1.7x
LenenergoRussia1.91.9x1.9x
CPFL EnergiaBrazil11.46.3x3.1x
NEXTERA ENERGY INCUS163.117.5x3.2x
RushydroRussia2.43.6x3.6x
DEWA (Dubai Electricity & Water)UAE36.29.9x3.7x
Equatorial EnergiaBrazil12.210.9x5.4x
En+ GroupRussia2.56.4x6.4x
Manila Electric (Meralco)Philippines7.812.5x8.1x
EnergisaBrazil33.023.1x11.6x
Group median6.3x3.4x
Group average8.0x4.3x
This companyRussia2.30.2x0.2x

Group median 6.3x as traded, 3.4x adjusted; this company 0.2x — a 95% discount.

Group average 8.0x as traded, 4.3x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 96% discount. The average sits 26% above the median: Energisa (11.6x) skews the group.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +23% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.3x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: +19%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)134 bn RUB
Payout ratio25%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage -1.1x)-91 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)0.32 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.32 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-7.7 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price2.71 ₽
Forecast dividend yield11.9%
Fair price (dividend-based)3.22 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Three-year model and IRR withheld

The number is withheld — here is why

Holding prices flat with current cost inflation wipes out modelled equity — read it as a risk signal, not a valuation

The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.

base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue1.90 trn2.11 trn2.30 trn2.48 trn
Revenue growth—+11%+9%+8%
EBITDA141.7 bn144.1 bn160.4 bn176.6 bn
EBITDA margin7.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%
less D&A43.7 bn46.5 bn49.0 bn51.3 bn
EBIT98.0 bn97.5 bn111.4 bn125.3 bn
less net interest-56.7 bn-14.4 bn5.9 bn20.8 bn
less tax42.6 bn28.0 bn26.4 bn26.1 bn
Net profit119.6 bn83.9 bn79.1 bn78.4 bn
Capex222.4 bn203.9 bn222.3 bn239.8 bn
Capex to revenue11.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%
Free cash flow-108.1 bn
operating cash flow less capex
-73.5 bn-94.2 bn-110.1 bn
Net debt-137.9 bn13.7 bn207.4 bn423.2 bn
Net debt / EBITDA-1.0x0.1x1.3x2.4x
Dividend per share0.320 ₽0.320 ₽0.280 ₽0.280 ₽
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY +16%; acceleration +1.2pp
LTM г/г по отчётности		48%+12% · +9% · +8%
Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 4)
Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена		52%+10% · +9% · +8%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 1.50x (1.00x…2.19x)
The 1.5x exit is the model's FLOOR, not today's valuation: the current multiple is 0.37x, so a 4.3x multiple normalisation is assumed. Enterprise value is near zero — the cash on the balance sheet matches what the shares cost — so the upside comes from re-rating, not the business
Second valuation: discounted cash flow0.000 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
80% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy25% of net profit
EBITDA calibration×0.90
Year-3 EBITDA margin target8.0%
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governanceno flags: the dividend has not faded against profit, payouts were not suspended, no audit qualification and no manual penalty — quality multiplier 1.00
Model versus analyst forecasts
Linemodelanalystsgap
2027 Консенсус, houses: 4.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027
Revenue2.11 trn2.09 trn1.01x
EBITDA144.1 bn178.8 bn0.81x
Net profit83.9 bn116.2 bn0.72x
2028 Консенсус, houses: 2.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028
Revenue2.30 trn2.34 trn0.98x
EBITDA160.4 bn202.8 bn0.79x
Net profit79.1 bn117.8 bn0.67x

The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.

Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue92%0.98x100%
EBITDA916%1.12x56%
Net profit919%0.81x56%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: Frontier див-модель — 3.22 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 2.88 ₽. Dropped as broken: eninvs DividendPrediction (2.83e-09)

Checks and caveats
  • ✗ Holding prices flat with current cost inflation wipes out modelled equity — read it as a risk signal, not a valuation
  • ⚠ Year-3 margin 7% is below the worst year on record (7%), though inside tolerance
  • ⚠ The growth is bought, not earned: for every rouble of EBITDA added over three years, net debt grew by 3.3 roubles. The model carries the historical EBITDA pace forward but only funds maintenance capex — acquisitions are not in the outflows. If growth keeps costing the same, free cash flow and dividends here are overstated
  • ⚠ Net debt grows for reasons beyond a cash shortfall: over 5 years it added 3.5% of revenue a year on top of cash flow and dividends (range -4.6…+7.5%) — new leases, acquisitions, revaluation. That addition is carried in the forecast; without it the model would show deleveraging where debt keeps rising
  • ⚠ Less reaches actual cash than the formula implies: over 3 reported years free cash flow came to 0.75 of 'EBITDA less capex, interest and tax'. The gap is lease principal (IFRS 16 keeps it out of EBITDA but it still has to be paid) and working capital. The forecast cash flow is scaled by this factor — otherwise debt repayment and dividends come out of cash the company never has
  • ✓ Growth sources: consensus, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR +9%
  • ✓ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA 2.4x
  • ✓ Three-year dividends — 32% of the current price
  • ✓ IRR -41%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ Historical check (9 observations): median EBITDA miss 1.5 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 100% of cases, relative error 16% at bias 1.12x, revenue 2%
  • ✓ Versus the analyst forecast for 2027 (4 houses): revenue 1.01x, EBITDA 0.81x, profit 0.72x
  • ✓ One-year value agrees with an independent estimate: Frontier див-модель (0.89x). Compared with: Frontier див-модель
  • The model historically overstated this name's EBITDA by 1.12x (9 observations), so the path is trimmed by 10%.

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 0.32 RUB/sh · 11.9%

Pay yearDividend /sh
20260.32 ₽
20250.35 ₽
20240.33 ₽
20230.28 ₽
20220.24 ₽
20210.18 ₽
20200.20 ₽
20190.17 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2026 q22026-06-080.32 ₽
2025 q22025-06-060.35 ₽
2024 q22024-05-310.33 ₽
2023 q22023-05-260.28 ₽
2022 q22022-06-080.24 ₽
2021 q22021-06-030.18 ₽
2020 q22020-05-280.20 ₽
2019 q22019-05-290.17 ₽
2018 q22018-05-300.13 ₽
2017 q22017-06-160.15 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 0 across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 6 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

02.09.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
ПАО «Интер РАО ЕЭС» получило кредитный рейтинг на уровне AAA(ru) от Аналитического Кредитного Рейтингового Агентства. Рейтинг был присвоен 02.09.2026, что может позитивно отразиться на инвестиционной привлекательности компании.
30.06.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
30 июня 2026 года состоялось заседание совета директоров ПАО «Интер РАО ЕЭС», на котором был утвержден новый порядок представления информации акционерам. Все 11 членов совета проголосовали за решение без против и воздержавшихся.
29.05.26AGM / BoardРешения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
29 мая 2026 года состоится годовое собрание акционеров ПАО «Интер РАО», на котором будет утвержден годовой отчет и бухгалтерская отчетность за 2025 год, а также предложено распределение прибыли, включая дивиденды в размере 0,3214 руб. на акцию. Кворум для принятия решений по всем вопросам повестки дня был достигнут.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 2 of 17 funds, ≈78 млн ₽ combined.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акцийДОХОДЪ6.47%66 млн ₽—31.08.2026
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ6.36%12 млн ₽—31.08.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Inter RAO (IRAO) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s P/E ratio?
Inter RAO (IRAO) trades at a P/E of 1.5x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s EV/EBITDA?
Inter RAO (IRAO) trades at 0.2x EV/EBITDA.
What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s P/B ratio?
Inter RAO (IRAO) trades at a P/B of 0.2x.
What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s dividend yield?
Inter RAO (IRAO)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 11.9%.
What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Inter RAO (IRAO)'s ROE is 7.8%.
What is Inter RAO (IRAO)'s market capitalization?
Inter RAO (IRAO)'s market cap is 2.3 bn USD.

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