Gold and lithium torch the coal face as Australia's miners split in two

This earnings season, Australian resources didn't just diverge: they split into two different economies. Gold and lithium miners posted revenue growth of 66% and 73% year over year, while coal and diversified miners barely moved the needle at +0.9% and +0.6%. The gap between the best and worst median industry revenue growth was a staggering 90 percentage points. That's not a rotation; that's a rout.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Gold miners delivered the goods, but the real fire came from lithium and rare earths

Gold mining led the pack with median revenue growth of +66.1% year over year. Genesis Minerals was the standout, with revenue up 89.4%, EBITDA up 104.0%, and net profit up 172.1%. Evolution Mining also impressed: revenue +27.7%, EBITDA +76.2%, net profit +59.3%. These aren't just good numbers; they're a testament to operational leverage in a rising gold price environment.

But the real shock came from lithium and rare earths. Pilbara Minerals saw revenue surge 73.0% and net profit explode by 368.6%. Lynas Rare Earths posted revenue growth of 80.2% and EBITDA up 184.7%. These are hyper-growth numbers from sectors that were left for dead just a year ago. The battery materials boom is back, and it's bigger than ever.

Coal and oil are the walking wounded, with profits collapsing even as revenue holds up

The laggards are ugly. New Hope's revenue inched up 0.9%, but EBITDA fell 32.4% and net profit plunged 63.4%. Yancoal Australia saw revenue rise 11.8%, yet net profit collapsed by 89.6%. Even Santos, the oil and gas major, posted revenue growth of just 1.6% while net profit fell 19.1%. These are clear signs of margin compression and weakening commodity prices. The market is punishing anyone who can't grow profits, not just revenue.

The plot twist: IGO's revenue fell but profits skyrocketed, and South32's net profit jumped 410% on flat revenue

The biggest surprise is IGO Ltd. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year, yet EBITDA surged 143.9% and net profit more than doubled (+115.2%). That's a massive margin expansion story, likely from cost cuts or one-off gains. Meanwhile, South32's revenue was essentially flat (+0.6%), but net profit exploded by 410.3%. These anomalies show that in this market, profit growth can come from anywhere—even when the top line is under pressure.

Cheap for a reason: Regis Resources trades at 7.9x earnings while Lynas commands 62.3x

Valuation dispersion is extreme. Regis Resources, growing revenue at 42.8% and net profit at 181.1%, trades at just 7.9x earnings and 3.4x EV/EBITDA. That's deep value for a gold miner with explosive profit growth. On the other end, Lynas Rare Earths trades at 62.3x earnings and 46.3x EV/EBITDA, pricing in years of perfect execution. IGO is even more expensive at 33.4x earnings and a nosebleed 62.0x EV/EBITDA. For value hunters, the gold sector—especially Regis—offers the best risk/reward.

Income investors find little to love, but Whitehaven's 2.5x EV/EBITDA hints at hidden yield

Dividend yields are not provided in the data, but valuation multiples offer clues. Whitehaven Coal trades at just 2.5x EV/EBITDA and 15.6x earnings, despite a 40.7% drop in net profit. That low multiple could signal a high dividend yield if the company maintains payouts. Similarly, Regis Resources at 3.4x EV/EBITDA and 7.9x earnings could be a dividend play if gold prices hold. But without explicit yields, income seekers should dig deeper into payout ratios.

Looking at the long game, Northern Star Resources has grown revenue at a 360.7% CAGR over three years, and Genesis Minerals at 182.9%. These are the compounders that have built serious scale. But watch the lithium names: Pilbara's 3-year revenue CAGR is -29.1%, a reminder that today's hyper-growth can follow a brutal downturn. The next catalyst will be whether gold and lithium prices sustain their rallies, and if coal and oil can find a floor. For now, the market is rewarding profit growth over revenue growth—and punishing those who can't deliver.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)