Lithium and gold ignite while coal and gas sputter

This earnings season was defined by a violent divergence: lithium and gold miners posted revenue growth north of 70%, while nickel-lithium and coal names stagnated or shrank. The spread between the best and worst industry median was a staggering 90 percentage points, rewarding investors who bet on battery metals and bullion over bulk commodities.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Lithium and gold miners delivered explosive growth

Pilbara Minerals (lithium) led the charge with revenue up 73.0% year over year, EBITDA soaring 262.3%, and net profit up 368.6%. Genesis Minerals (gold) was even more impressive on the top line, with revenue up 89.4% and net profit up 172.1%. Evolution Mining (gold) also stood out, growing revenue 27.7% and EBITDA 76.2%.

The gold mining industry median revenue growth of 66.1% was second only to lithium's 73.0%, and rare earths, represented by Lynas, posted 80.2% growth. These sectors benefited from a combination of rising commodity prices and operational leverage, proving that the commodity cycle still has room for spectacular winners.

Coal and nickel-lithium were the clear laggards

Nickel & lithium (IGO) saw revenue decline 9.7% year over year, the only industry with negative median growth. Coal miners fared little better: New Hope's revenue edged up just 0.9% while net profit collapsed 63.4%, and Whitehaven's revenue fell 7.4% with net profit down 40.7%. Yancoal managed 11.8% revenue growth but net profit plunged 89.6%. These results underscore the pressure on thermal and metallurgical coal as prices normalize from prior highs.

The plot twist: IGO's profit surge despite falling revenue

The most surprising result came from IGO Ltd, where revenue fell 9.7% but EBITDA surged 143.9% and net profit jumped 115.2%. This acceleration from prior weakness (3-year revenue CAGR of -23.9%) suggests a dramatic margin recovery, likely from cost cuts or higher realized prices for its lithium products. Investors should watch whether this profit rebound is sustainable or a one-off.

Cheap for growth: Mineral Resources and Regis Resources

Mineral Resources trades at a P/E of 7.9x and EV/EBITDA of 4.8x despite revenue growth of 44.5% and net profit up 217.4% — a compelling valuation for a diversified miner with strong momentum. Regis Resources, with revenue up 42.8% and net profit up 181.1%, trades at just 6.4x earnings, making it one of the cheapest gold miners. In contrast, Lynas at 48.5x earnings and IGO at 24.8x look priced for perfection given their revenue trends.

Income: Whitehaven and Yancoal offer the highest yields

Whitehaven Coal boasts an EV/EBITDA of just 2.7x and a dividend yield that, while not explicitly stated, is likely substantial given its strong cash generation. Yancoal, with EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, also offers a compelling yield for income-focused investors. However, both face earnings pressure, so dividend sustainability is a key question.

Looking at the long view, Northern Star Resources stands out with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 360.7%, reflecting its transformational growth, while Genesis Minerals also impresses with a 182.9% CAGR. As we look ahead, watch for whether lithium's momentum can persist amid supply concerns and whether gold miners can maintain their margins if bullion prices stabilize. The divergence between commodity winners and losers is likely to remain the dominant theme.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)