Indonesia's earnings season: Coal and nickel surge, banks diverge

This season's defining story is a sharp split between commodity producers, which are riding a wave of strong prices, and financials, which are struggling with margin pressure and weaker demand. The biggest divergence is between the 60%+ EBITDA growth at coal and nickel names and the 20-50% profit declines at some banks and consumer companies. Even within the same sector, the gap is stark: PTBA's net profit more than doubled while BYAN's prior-period profit fell by a quarter, highlighting that not all commodity plays are equal.

Revenue growth, biggest movers (YoY)

Commodity producers are the clear winners, with coal and nickel leading the charge

The standout is INCO, a nickel miner, with revenue up 31.9% and EBITDA soaring 140.5% year over year, turning a prior loss into a profit. Coal miners are not far behind: ADRO grew revenue 23.4% and net profit 46.8%, while ANTM's EBITDA jumped 60.1% and PTBA's net profit surged 104.8%. These are not just cyclical blips; they reflect a structural demand for energy transition metals and resilient coal prices.

Banks and consumer staples are the laggards, with BBNI's profit halving

The banking sector is a mixed bag, but BBNI is the clear loser: revenue fell 19.8% and net profit plunged 49.5% year over year, a sharp reversal from prior growth. BMRI also saw revenue decline 9.3%, though a 33.5% profit increase suggests cost cuts. Among consumer names, ICBP's net profit dropped 33.1% despite revenue growth, and INDF's profit fell 19.1%, signaling margin compression. ASII, the auto and heavy equipment giant, saw EBITDA down 24.8% and net profit down 14.0%.

GOTO's dramatic turnaround is the season's surprise, with profit swinging from losses to a 350% gain

The most unexpected result comes from GOTO, the tech platform, which reported net profit up 350.5% year over year, a massive swing from prior losses, and EBITDA up 231.6%. This is a genuine plot twist, as the company had been burning cash for years. The acceleration from prior revenue growth of 26.3% to 28.5% shows momentum, but the real story is the path to profitability.

Valuations are cheap for growers but expensive for laggards, with SMGR priced for perfection

ADRO trades at just 8.2x earnings and 5.0x EV/EBITDA despite 23% revenue growth, making it a bargain. CPIN, with net profit up 95.1%, trades at 6.8x earnings and 4.3x EV/EBITDA — a steal. On the other end, SMGR, with revenue growth of only 8.3%, trades at a staggering 46.6x earnings, though its EV/EBITDA of 2.5x suggests the market is betting on a profit recovery after an 88.7% net profit jump. BYAN, with flat revenue and a 35.1x P/E, looks priced for perfection.

Dividend yields are attractive in coal and consumer, but banks offer less

For income investors, the standout is INDF with a dividend yield of 5.9% (implied by its P/E and payout), followed by ITMG at 5.5% and ADRO at 5.2%. These coal and consumer names offer yields that beat the banking sector, where BBNI yields only 2.3% and BBCA 1.8%. The high yields are supported by strong cash flows, making them a reliable income source.

Looking ahead, the 3-year revenue CAGR is not available for most names, but the current growth rates suggest that commodity producers will continue to outperform if prices hold. Watch for any signs of a slowdown in China's demand for nickel and coal, which could reverse the trend. The banking sector's divergence — with BBRI growing 12% and BBNI contracting — will be a key test of credit quality and cost discipline in the coming quarters.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)