Fertilizer and gold miners lead a split season; gas processing stumbles

This season's earnings delivered a stark split: while fertilizer and rare-earth producers posted triple-digit revenue surges, gas processors and coal miners saw double-digit declines. The median revenue growth across industries ranged from +91.9% for fertilizers to -33.2% for gas processing, a 125-percentage-point spread that underscores the commodity cycle's uneven hand. Gold miners, riding a 37.5% median revenue gain, and platinum producers, up 43.7%, turned in standout performances, while energy and utility names lagged, with oil and gas down 8.4% and coal off 17.7%.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Fertilizers and gold miners are the clear winners, with triple-digit growth and soaring profits

Fertiglobe, the only fertilizer name in the dataset, saw revenue surge 91.9% year over year, with net profit exploding 466.8% — the largest profit swing in the entire season. Gold miners were equally impressive: Gold Fields reported revenue up 68.2% and net profit up 186.5%, while Genesis Minerals posted a 142.2% revenue jump and a 298.1% net profit leap. Even mid-tier gold names like Regis Resources delivered 40% revenue growth and 264.9% net profit growth, confirming that the yellow metal's rally is lifting all boats.

Gas processing and coal are the laggards, with steep declines and margin compression

ADNOC Gas was the season's biggest loser, with revenue down 33.2% and net profit slashed 52.0%, a stark reversal for a company that had been a reliable grower. Coal miners were uniformly weak: Whitehaven Coal saw revenue fall 27.7% and EBITDA drop 55.9%, while Yancoal Australia's net profit tumbled 63.8%. Even New Hope, which had a smaller revenue decline of 20.1%, saw EBITDA collapse 53.8%, highlighting the sector's operating leverage to the downside.

The plot twist: platinum miners and lithium players made a stunning comeback

The biggest surprise was the resurgence of platinum and lithium miners, which had been written off in previous cycles. Impala Platinum's revenue grew 43.7% and net profit soared 399.0%, while Northam Platinum accelerated from a prior revenue decline to +60.0% growth, with EBITDA up 275.3%. In lithium, Pilbara Minerals reversed a prior decline to post 46.6% revenue growth and a 350.4% EBITDA surge, while IGO, despite a 31.7% revenue drop, managed a 119.1% EBITDA gain — a clear sign that cost cuts, not revenue, are driving the recovery.

Valuation sweet spots: Emaar Development and KZTK offer growth at single-digit multiples

For value investors, Emaar Development stands out: revenue grew 32.1% and net profit rose 43.6%, yet it trades at just 4.0x earnings and 0.8x EV/EBITDA — a rare combination of high growth and deep value. Similarly, Kazakhstan's KZTK grew revenue 21.6% and net profit 98.1%, yet trades at 4.6x earnings and 4.6x EV/EBITDA. On the expensive end, Talabat's 65.5x P/E and 51.5x EV/EBITDA look rich for a company whose net profit fell 17.9%, while Lynas Rare Earths, despite 62.7% revenue growth, trades at 185.8x earnings — a premium that leaves no room for error.

Income investors can find shelter in Kazakhstan's high-yield names

For yield hunters, KZTO offers a 9.7% dividend yield (DPS 118.0₸ on a price of 1211.24₸), while ASBN yields 7.8% and AIRA 7.7%. These are not just high yields; they come with reasonable valuations — KZTO trades at 8.9x earnings and 3.5x EV/EBITDA, and ASBN at 14.2x earnings. Even KEGC, with a 5.6% yield, trades at 6.5x earnings and 4.2x EV/EBITDA, making it a solid income-plus-value play.

The long view: Old Mutual and Halyk show compounding power, but watch for cyclical turns

Looking at three-year revenue CAGRs, Old Mutual leads with 61.2%, followed by Halyk at 59.0% and CCBN at 52.2% — all financials that have compounded impressively. However, the cyclicality is stark: Fertiglobe's three-year CAGR is -17.5% despite this year's 91.9% surge, and Lynas Rare Earths has a -15.3% CAGR despite 62.7% growth. This suggests that today's winners may be tomorrow's laggards, so investors should watch for sustainability of commodity prices and the pace of rate cuts in emerging markets.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)