Memory Chips and Fertilizer Outrun an Oil & Gas Wreck

This season's defining split is between a memory-chip supercycle and an oil-and-gas unwind. Semiconductor memory posted a median revenue gain of +256.8% year over year, while gas processing fell -33.2% and airlines dropped -34.2%. Even within energy, the divergence was brutal: oil and gas extraction rose +66.5% while gas processing collapsed -33.2%, and ADNOC Gas saw revenue fall -33.2% with net profit down -52.0%. The market paid up for AI-driven demand and punished anything tied to weak gas prices or travel softness.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Memory chips and fertilizer are the season's undisputed champions

SK hynix delivered the quarter's most spectacular print: revenue +256.8% year over year, EBITDA +420.9%, with net profit not meaningful. Winbond Electronics followed with revenue +184.7%. Samsung Electronics, in semiconductors and electronics, saw revenue rise +130.0%. These are not base effects alone; they reflect a genuine pricing and volume surge in memory. In fertilizer, Fertiglobe posted revenue +91.9% and net profit +466.8%, a stunning recovery from a weak prior-year base. The common thread: supply discipline meeting resilient demand.

The strength is broad within these niches. Rare earths (Lynas, +80.2% revenue) and lithium (Pilbara Minerals, +73.0% revenue, net profit +368.6%) also posted huge gains, though their 3-year revenue CAGRs are mixed. What matters for this season is the sheer magnitude of the rebound, which has pushed some valuations to eye-watering levels — Lynas trades at 64.4x earnings and 47.8x EV/EBITDA. The market is clearly pricing a durable upcycle.

Gas processing and airlines are the season's biggest losers

ADNOC Gas saw revenue fall -33.2% year over year, with EBITDA down -42.0% and net profit down -52.0%. That is a sharp deterioration for a company that many considered a stable cash generator. Airlines were even worse: AIRA posted revenue -34.2% and net profit -296.3%, while Air Arabia saw revenue slip -0.2% but net profit plunge -74.9%. The common culprit: weaker pricing and demand in their respective markets. For income-focused investors, these are clear avoid zones until fundamentals stabilize.

The plot twist: ASBN's revenue accelerated but profits collapsed

ASBN, a bank, reported revenue +45.2% year over year, accelerating from +45.0% in the prior period. Yet net profit fell -35.4%, worsening from -31.5% previously. This is a classic case of top-line growth masking bottom-line deterioration — likely due to margin compression or higher provisions. Investors should dig into the quality of that revenue. Meanwhile, KCEL in telecom saw revenue accelerate to +63.3% from +13.4%, but EBITDA collapsed -61.9%. These divergences are warnings that not all growth is created equal.

Cheap for a reason: banks trade at single-digit P/Es while growth fades

HALYK Bank trades at just 4.0x earnings with a 13.5% dividend yield, yet revenue rose only +2.6% and net profit fell -15.3%. That yield is attractive, but the earnings decline suggests caution. CCBN is even cheaper at 3.8x P/E, but net profit dropped -15.9%. In contrast, Emaar Development looks like the value sweet spot: revenue +32.1%, net profit +43.6%, yet it trades at 4.0x earnings and 0.8x EV/EBITDA. That is remarkably cheap for that growth. On the expensive side, Lynas at 64.4x P/E and Hanwha Systems at 78.7x P/E are priced for perfection — any stumble could hurt.

Income hunters: HALYK and KEGC offer double-digit yields

HALYK Bank leads with a 13.5% dividend yield (DPS 51.1₸ on a price of 377.74₸), though its earnings decline is a concern. KEGC, a power grid company, offers a 10.7% yield (DPS 161.9₸ on a price of 1517.95₸) and is growing revenue +31.1% with net profit +59.4% — a much healthier combination. KZTO, an oil transport firm, yields 9.6% (DPS 118.0₸ on a price of 1232.52₸) and trades at 9.2x earnings. For income-focused investors, KEGC stands out as the rare high-yield name with strong growth.

Looking at the long view, Northern Star Resources has a 3-year revenue CAGR of +360.7%, reflecting a massive transformation. KSPI, in fintech and e-commerce, has a 3-year revenue CAGR of +47.1% and trades at 7.5x earnings with a 3.8% dividend yield — a rare blend of growth and income. For the next season, watch whether the memory cycle sustains its blistering pace and whether gas processing can stabilize. The market is rewarding growth with real earnings power and punishing those with deteriorating fundamentals. Stay selective.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)