Aeroflot: Revenue Grows, but Profit Turns Negative on One-Offs

On August 18, Aeroflot released its results for the first half of 2026. Revenue grew 5.7% in the second quarter, but net profit turned negative – a margin of -0.1%. In this review, we look at what happened to profit, how debt changed, and what it means for shareholders.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew in H1, but growth slowed to 5.7% in Q2

— Net profit turned negative in H1 on one-off items

— EBITDA margin was 19.1% in H1, but operating cash flow is weak

— Debt rose by RUB 6.8 bn in Q2, to RUB 569.9 bn

— Capex nearly doubled in H1, to RUB 14.3 bn

— Dividend yield of 16.9% is above fair, but payment is questionable

— Multiples are below historical averages, but profit is negative

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue grew in H1, but growth slowed to 5.7% in Q2

In H1 2026, Aeroflot's revenue was RUB 201.1 bn in Q1 and RUB 225.8 bn in Q2. In Q2, growth slowed to 5.7% YoY – noticeably lower than 10.3% in Q2 2025.

The company attributes growth to a 7.7% increase in passenger traffic and a 3.1% rise in load factor for H1. But momentum is slowing, as seen in Q3 2025 growth of only 0.9% and Q4 2025 of 2.5%.

Net profit turned negative in H1 on one-off items

In H1 2026, Aeroflot's net profit was minus RUB 11.9 bn in Q1 and minus RUB 1.7 bn in Q2. As a result, H1 net margin was minus 0.1%.

In Q2 2025, profit was RUB 47.4 bn, so the deterioration is significant. There are no obvious one-off items in the report, but operating profit in Q2 2026 was only RUB 1.7 bn, indicating weak operational efficiency.

EBITDA margin was 19.1% in H1, but operating cash flow is weak

EBITDA for H1 2026 was RUB 29.6 bn in Q1 and RUB 57.1 bn in Q2, giving a margin of 19.1% for H1. This is lower than in Q2 2025, when EBITDA was RUB 58.1 bn.

Operating cash flow for H1 was RUB 24.6 bn in Q1 and RUB 37.5 bn in Q2. This is noticeably below EBITDA, indicating working capital growth or other deductions.

Debt rose by RUB 6.8 bn in Q2, to RUB 569.9 bn

Net debt at the end of Q2 2026 was RUB 569.9 bn, up RUB 6.8 bn from the end of Q1. Over the last 12 months, debt rose by RUB 29.8 bn.

Net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months is 2.45. This is a level the company has maintained for several quarters, but with weak profit, debt servicing becomes more sensitive.

Capex nearly doubled in H1, to RUB 14.3 bn

Capex for H1 2026 was RUB 14.3 bn in Q1 and RUB 42.3 bn in Q2. In Q2 2025, capex was RUB 70.7 bn, so on an annual basis it declined, but for H1 it nearly doubled compared to last year.

The company is actively investing in aircraft engines and real estate: 5 engines and an office complex were commissioned in H1. This supports the operational base but pressures free cash flow.

Dividend yield of 16.9% is above fair, but payment is questionable

Over the last 12 months, Aeroflot paid RUB 5.29 per share, giving a yield of 16.9%. Our model estimates the next payment at RUB 5.29, which corresponds to the same yield, but the fair yield for the company is 8.1%.

The payout ratio is 0.28 of profit, but with negative net profit in H1, payment from profit is impossible. The company may pay from retained earnings, but this cannot continue for long.

Multiples are below historical averages, but profit is negative

EV/EBITDA for the last 12 months is 2.98, below the three-year average of 3.41. P/E is 1.86, but with negative profit in H1, this multiple is not very informative.

Market capitalization is RUB 123.9 bn, which with debt of 569.9 bn gives an EV of about 693 bn. The company trades at a discount to its history, but this reflects weak profitability and dividend uncertainty.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Aeroflot shows revenue growth, but profit turned negative and debt continues to rise. EBITDA margin of 19.1% is decent for aviation, but operating cash flow is weak and capex is high. The dividend yield of 16.9% is attractive, but payment from profit is impossible, and the company may pay from retained earnings. Investors should watch profit and debt dynamics in the next report.