Aeroflot: Q1 2026 loss amid falling EBITDA and rising debt

In Q1 2026, Aeroflot posted a net loss of RUB 11.9 billion versus a profit a year earlier, with revenue up 5.7% and EBITDA down 39.6%. EBITDA margin fell from 25.8% to 14.7%, and net margin turned negative. Debt remains high, and operating cash flow barely covers capex.

Key figures, RUB bn

What the report showed and what's behind it

In Q1 2026, Aeroflot's revenue grew 5.7% year-on-year to RUB 201.1 billion. However, EBITDA fell 39.6% to RUB 29.6 billion, and the net loss was RUB 11.9 billion versus a profit of RUB 26.9 billion in Q1 2025. Operating profit shrank to RUB 1.7 billion from RUB 19.1 billion a year earlier. The main driver of the loss was a sharp decline in operating efficiency, not weak demand: revenue growth slowed but remained positive.

Quarterly dynamics: revenue, % YoY

Margins and costs

EBITDA margin in Q1 2026 was 14.7% versus 25.8% a year earlier, and net margin fell from 14.1% to minus 5.9%. This indicates costs growing faster than revenue. Over the trailing twelve months (LTM), EBITDA was RUB 238.4 billion, reflecting sustained margin pressure throughout the year.

Debt, cash flow, capex

Net debt at the end of Q1 2026 stood at RUB 557.9 billion, up RUB 6.8 billion from the previous reporting date and RUB 29.8 billion over the last 12 months. Operating cash flow in Q1 was RUB 24.6 billion, and capex was RUB 14.3 billion, leaving positive but modest free cash flow. Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 2.39, indicating moderate leverage.

Valuation and what to watch next quarter

Shares trade at an EV/EBITDA of 2.91 for the trailing twelve months, below the three-year average of 3.41. P/E for the trailing twelve months is 1.84, and dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is 10.91%. In the next report, the key will be margin recovery: if EBITDA margin does not return to above 20%, losses may continue. Also important is the trend in net debt and operating cash flow.

Valuation on the latest reported figures