Bashneft: profit down 55%, dividend yield half the fair level

13 апреля 2026 года «Башнефть» раскрыла отчётность за 2025 год: выручка снизилась на 12,3%, EBITDA – на 19,2%, а чистая прибыль обвалилась на 55,1% – до 46,6 млрд руб. При этом компания сохранила дивиденд 69,29 руб. на акцию, что даёт доходность 5,7% при справедливой, по нашей модели, 10,5%. На текущей цене акция выглядит непривлекательно: мультипликаторы ниже исторических, но падение прибыли и маржинальности не компенсируется дивидендной доходностью.

Key takeaways

— Выручка упала на 12,3% – до 1 001,8 млрд руб., а EBITDA сократилась на 19,2%

— Чистая прибыль рухнула на 55,1% – до 46,6 млрд руб., маржа ужалась вдвое

— Операционный денежный поток 110,2 млрд руб. едва покрывает капзатраты и дивиденды

— Долговая нагрузка 0,8 EBITDA – низкая, но компания не наращивает долг

— Дивиденд 69,29 руб. на акцию даёт доходность 5,7% – вдвое ниже справедливой

— Акция упала на 25,9% после отчёта, но модель портала видит потенциал +40%

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue fell 12.3% to RUB 1,001.8 bn, EBITDA down 19.2%

In 2025, Bashneft's revenue reached RUB 1,001.8 bn, down 12.3% year-on-year. The main driver was lower oil and product prices, as well as reduced sales volumes: revenue from oil, gas and petrochemicals fell from RUB 1,135.6 bn to RUB 989.1 bn.

EBITDA for the year declined 19.2% to RUB 152.5 bn (LTM), with the EBITDA margin narrowing from 16.5% to 15.2%. Pressure came from a 12.8% rise in production and operating expenses (to RUB 173.2 bn) and an 8.2% increase in depreciation to RUB 55.7 bn.

Net profit collapsed 55.1% to RUB 46.6 bn, margin halved

Net profit for 2025 was RUB 46.6 bn versus RUB 103.9 bn a year earlier. The 55.1% drop reflects not only lower operating profit (down from RUB 137.2 bn to RUB 96.8 bn) but also a surge in other expenses: the 'Other expenses' line jumped from RUB 1.1 bn to RUB 40.2 bn, likely driven by FX and financial items.

Net margin halved to 4.7% from 9.1%. Even with a lower income tax charge (RUB 9.98 bn vs RUB 32.2 bn), profitability remains under pressure.

Operating cash flow of RUB 110.2 bn barely covers capex and dividends

Operating cash flow for 2025 was RUB 110.2 bn, down 32% from RUB 163.0 bn a year earlier. Capital expenditure fell to RUB 42.4 bn from RUB 74.1 bn, leaving free cash flow after capex of around RUB 67.8 bn.

Dividend payments over the last 12 months totalled RUB 69.29 per share, which at the current share count requires roughly RUB 31.9 bn (based on cash flow statement payments). Thus, after capex and dividends, the company retains about RUB 35.9 bn, explaining the flat debt level.

Debt at 0.8x EBITDA – low, but the company is not adding leverage

Net debt at end-2025 stood at RUB 121.8 bn, equivalent to 0.8x trailing-twelve-month EBITDA. Over the year, net debt was unchanged – the company operates within its cash flow.

The low leverage leaves room for borrowing, but in the current environment management is not adding debt, as evidenced by the flat net debt.

Dividend of RUB 69.29 per share yields 5.7% – half the fair level

Over the last 12 months, Bashneft paid RUB 69.29 per share, providing a 5.7% yield at the current price. Our model estimates a fair yield for this name at 10.5%, meaning the market demands a significantly higher return than the company pays.

The payout ratio is only 0.19 of profit – the company distributes just a fifth of earnings. With such a conservative approach and falling profit, dividend appeal is limited.

Stock fell 25.9% after the report, but portal model sees +40% upside

The closing price before the report was RUB 1,544. On the release day, the stock rose 0.7%, but by August 17, 2026, it had fallen 25.9% to around RUB 1,144 (calculated).

Meanwhile, on the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and the target EV/EBITDA, the upside is +40% from the current price. This is our own calculation, not market consensus. The stock is held in the RU Commodity-Upside strategy, but that is a fact of membership, not an argument for the verdict.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The 2025 results showed significant deterioration: revenue and EBITDA declined, net profit more than halved, and margins compressed. Operating cash flow covers capex and dividends, but with a thin buffer, while leverage remains low. The dividend yield of 5.7% is half the fair level, making the share unattractive for income-oriented investors. Meanwhile, the portal's model sees +40% upside from re-priced EBITDA, but that scenario depends on oil price recovery. For now, we view the share as unattractive: the decline in profit and margins is not offset by dividend yield, and the upside potential lacks operational support.