MOEX: fee income grows, but Q2 net profit growth slows to +4.7%

26 августа Мосбиржа раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 5,9% год к году до 32 449,9 млн руб., чистая прибыль – на 4,7% до 15 766,2 млн руб. Рост обеспечили комиссионные доходы, которые прибавили 24,8% год к году, тогда как чистый процентный доход почти не изменился. В обзоре разбираем, что стоит за замедлением прибыли и почему операционный денежный поток не показатель для биржи.

Key takeaways

— Fee and commission income rose 24.8% YoY to RUB 22,271.7 mn in Q2, offsetting flat net interest income

— Q2 net profit grew only 4.7% to RUB 15,766.2 mn, with net margin easing from 49.1% to 48.6%

— H1 net profit rose 17.8% to RUB 32,929.0 mn, but Q2 growth halved

— Operating cash flow turned negative at RUB -249,183.5 mn for H1 – reflecting client balances and CCP positions, not business deterioration

— Equity fell RUB 11,003.8 mn in H1 due to dividends, yet ROE stays high at 24.4%

— Shares trade at 5.4x P/E and 12.8% dividend yield – below its own history, but with sanction risks

Key figures, RUB bn

Fee and commission income rose 24.8% YoY to RUB 22,271.7 mn in Q2, offsetting flat net interest income

In Q2 2026, MOEX's fee and commission income reached RUB 22,271.7 mn, up 24.8% YoY. Key contributors were the money market (RUB 5,871.8 mn for the quarter), equity market (RUB 4,693.6 mn), and derivatives market (RUB 4,144.1 mn). The fee growth reflects recovering trading activity after the 2024 sanctions shock.

Net interest income was nearly flat at RUB 13,288.7 mn versus RUB 13,008.5 mn a year earlier. This is expected: the key rate has stabilised, and interest income from client funds is no longer a growth driver. As a result, Q2 revenue growth (+5.9% YoY) was entirely driven by fees.

Q2 net profit grew only 4.7% to RUB 15,766.2 mn, with net margin easing from 49.1% to 48.6%

MOEX's Q2 2026 net profit was RUB 15,766.2 mn, up 4.7% YoY. Net margin eased from 49.1% to 48.6% – still high, but no longer expanding.

The profit slowdown despite faster fee growth reflects higher operating expenses, including commission and direct costs now shown as a separate line. The group also recorded a loss on revaluation of financial instruments in Q2, partly offsetting revenue growth.

H1 net profit rose 17.8% to RUB 32,929.0 mn, but Q2 growth halved

For H1 2026, MOEX's net profit was RUB 32,929.0 mn, up 17.8% YoY from RUB 27,947.1 mn. Quarterly dynamics are uneven: Q1 profit grew 32.2% YoY, Q2 only 4.7%.

The Q2 slowdown reflects a high base: Q2 2025 was strong due to market volatility. Also, in Q2 2026 the group recorded a loss on financial instruments at fair value, versus a gain a year earlier.

Operating cash flow turned negative at RUB -249,183.5 mn for H1 – reflecting client balances and CCP positions, not business deterioration

For H1 2026, MOEX's operating cash flow was minus RUB 249,183.5 mn versus plus RUB 52,415.9 mn a year earlier. This is not a result but a consequence of the exchange model: client balances fell by RUB 243,157.6 mn, while central counterparty positions rose by RUB 217,600.1 mn.

For an exchange, operating cash flow does not reflect business efficiency – it swings with client account balances and clearing volumes. Therefore, we do not use it to assess results. Profit before tax for H1 rose to RUB 43,873.9 mn from RUB 37,602.9 mn a year earlier.

Equity fell RUB 11,003.8 mn in H1 due to dividends, yet ROE stays high at 24.4%

MOEX's equity stood at RUB 258,565.4 mn as of June 30, 2026, versus RUB 269,569.2 mn at the start of the year. The RUB 11,003.8 mn decline is due to 2025 dividend payments – declared dividends for H1 were RUB 44,549.2 mn, partly paid in Q1.

Despite the equity reduction, return on equity (ROE) for the last 12 months is 24.4% – a high level supporting dividend yield. Retained earnings fell to RUB 225,289.7 mn from RUB 236,200.8 mn at the start of the year.

Shares trade at 5.4x P/E and 12.8% dividend yield – below its own history, but with sanction risks

MOEX's market capitalisation is RUB 346,468.3 mn, implying a P/E of 5.4x for the last 12 months. This is well below the three-year average of roughly 7–8x, reflecting persistent sanction risks and uncertainty about access to international capital markets.

Trailing dividend yield is 12.8% with a payout of RUB 19.57 per share. Our model forecasts the same RUB 19.57 next period, giving a forward yield of 12.8% versus our fair yield of 10.5%. The payout ratio is 0.75 of profit – comfortable, but dependent on the group's ability to generate earnings under restrictions.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

MOEX reported moderate Q2 profit growth: fee income is growing double-digit, but net interest income is stagnant and margins slightly declined. H1 profit rose 17.8%, confirming the resilience of the business model, though Q2 dynamics slowed. Valuation remains attractive – 5.4x P/E and 12.8% dividend yield – but sanction risks and key-rate dependence warrant caution. The key question for shareholders is whether the group can sustain fee growth under restrictions and avoid cutting dividends.