MOEX: Q2 2026 revenue doubled, but net profit margin halved

26 августа Мосбиржа раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 110,3% год к году, до 32,4 млрд руб., чистая прибыль – на 5,3%, до 15,8 млрд руб. Рентабельность по чистой прибыли упала с 97,0% до 48,6% из-за роста процентных расходов и комиссионных затрат. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: P/E LTM 5,4, дивидендная доходность 12,6% против справедливых для нас 10,5%, а модель портала показывает апсайд +19%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue doubled on fee and commission income and net interest income

— Net profit rose only 5.3% as profitability fell

— EBITDA margin dropped from 97.6% to 52.9% on higher operating expenses

— Operating cash flow negative due to client fund outflows

— Dividend yield above fair, portal model implies 19% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue doubled on fee and commission income and net interest income

In Q2 2026, MOEX revenue reached RUB 32.4bn, up 110.3% year-on-year. The main contributors were fee and commission income, which rose to RUB 22.3bn, and net interest income of RUB 13.3bn. The increase in fees was driven by higher trading volumes on the money and derivatives markets, as well as by the expansion of depositary services.

Net interest income remained at the level of the previous quarter but grew significantly compared to the same period last year, when it was minimal. This reflects the high key rate and growth in client balances. As a result, revenue for H1 2026 reached RUB 65.7bn, up 16.3% from H1 2025.

Net profit rose only 5.3% as profitability fell

Net profit in Q2 2026 was RUB 15.8bn, only 5.3% higher than a year earlier. Revenue doubled, indicating a significant decline in efficiency: net profit margin fell from 97.0% to 48.6%.

The main reason was a sharp increase in operating expenses, including commission and direct costs, as well as higher interest expenses. The statement of comprehensive income shows that net profit for H1 2026 grew 32.2% compared to H1 2025, but this growth was mainly driven by Q1, when profit jumped 32.2% YoY.

EBITDA margin dropped from 97.6% to 52.9% on higher operating expenses

EBITDA in Q2 2026 was RUB 17.2bn, up 14.0% year-on-year, but EBITDA margin fell from 97.6% to 52.9%. This is because operating expenses grew faster than revenue: commission and direct costs, as well as administrative expenses, increased significantly.

The income statement for H1 2026 shows changes in presentation: commission and other direct expenses are now shown separately, making comparison with the previous year more transparent. Higher personnel and marketing costs are likely related to business expansion and technology investments.

Operating cash flow negative due to client fund outflows

In H1 2026, operating cash flow was minus RUB 249.2bn, compared with a positive RUB 52.4bn a year earlier. This is due to client fund outflows (minus RUB 243.2bn) and changes in central counterparty positions, which is typical for an exchange business and does not indicate operational performance.

Capital expenditures for the half-year were RUB 4.0bn, similar to the previous year. Investments are mainly directed at maintaining and developing trading systems and infrastructure.

Dividend yield above fair, portal model implies 19% upside

Over the last 12 months, MOEX paid dividends of RUB 19.57 per share, providing a yield of 12.6% at the current price. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 21.27 per share, implying a forward yield of 13.7% – above our fair yield of 10.5%.

The payout ratio is 0.75 of profit, leaving room for growth. According to the portal's model, based on ROE and P/B, the share has an upside of +19% to fair value. The share is included in our strategies 'RU AI conviction', 'RU AI long-short', 'RU Banks & financials', and 'RU Dividend growers'.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, MOEX doubled its revenue, but net profit growth was modest due to a decline in profitability. Nevertheless, absolute profit remains high, and the dividend yield exceeds our fair level. With a P/E LTM of 5.4 and ROE of 24.4%, the share looks undervalued, and the portal's model confirms upside potential. The key question for holders is whether the company can maintain margins if rates decline and whether fee income will continue to grow.