Rosseti Moscow Region: Q2 profit up 69% on tariffs and connections, but cash flow fell

28 августа ПАО «Россети Московский регион» раскрыло результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 22,6% год к году, до 74,8 млрд руб., EBITDA – на 28,2%, до 24,1 млрд руб., чистая прибыль – на 69,0%, до 10,0 млрд руб. В обзоре разберём, что обеспечило такой рост, почему операционный денежный поток снизился, и как это влияет на оценку компании.

Key takeaways

— Выручка +22,6% год к году: тарифы и технологическое присоединение

— EBITDA-маржа выросла до 32,2% с 30,8%

— Чистая прибыль +69%: эффект низкой базы и операционного рычага

— Операционный денежный поток упал на 17% из-за роста дебиторки и авансов

— Долг вырос на 9,8 млрд руб. за квартал, но мультипликатор остаётся низким

— Капзатраты снизились, но свободный денежный поток остаётся отрицательным

— Дивидендная доходность 12% – выше справедливой, но выплата под вопросом

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue +22.6% YoY: tariffs and grid connections

In Q2 2026, revenue of Rosseti Moscow Region reached RUB 74.8 bn, up 22.6% YoY. The main driver was electricity transmission – RUB 65.4 bn, up 20% YoY. Grid connection services grew 43% to RUB 6.9 bn, reflecting developer activity in Moscow and the region.

Other revenue (installation, maintenance, leases) was RUB 2.6 bn, up 45%. Tariff growth for electricity transmission and a high base of connections have driven double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters: from +7.0% in Q1 2025 to +22.6% in Q2 2026.

EBITDA margin expanded to 32.2% from 30.8%

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 28.2% YoY to RUB 24.1 bn, with EBITDA margin expanding from 30.8% to 32.2%. The margin improvement came from revenue outpacing operating costs: cost of sales rose 13% while revenue grew 22.6%.

Key cost items – electricity transmission services (RUB 26.1 bn, +9.5%) and personnel costs (RUB 10.8 bn, +9.2%) – grew slower than revenue. This is classic operating leverage: with tariff growth, the fixed cost base is spread over a larger volume.

Net profit +69%: low base and operating leverage

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached RUB 10.0 bn, up 69% YoY. Growth accelerated from previous quarters: in Q1 2026 profit rose 34% YoY, while in Q2 2025 it was only up 12%.

Besides operating leverage, the dynamics reflect a low base: a year ago net profit was RUB 5.9 bn – the lowest in the last four quarters. The current quarter had no major one-off write-downs, unlike Q4 2025, which posted a loss of RUB 8.8 bn. Net margin expanded from 9.7% to 13.3%.

Operating cash flow fell 17% on receivables and advances

Operating cash flow (OCF) in Q2 2026 was RUB 18.5 bn, down 17% YoY from RUB 22.4 bn. The decline came despite profit growth: the company increased receivables and advances issued, and built up inventories.

For H1, OCF was RUB 53.6 bn versus RUB 45.0 bn a year earlier, but Q2 dynamics deteriorated. This matters: profit is growing, but its quality is declining – part of the profit remains in working capital rather than turning into cash.

Debt rose by RUB 9.8 bn in the quarter, but leverage remains low

Net debt at the end of Q2 2026 stood at RUB 67.3 bn, up RUB 9.8 bn from the previous quarter. Over the last 12 months, debt increased by RUB 4.4 bn. The rise is linked to financing capital expenditures and working capital needs.

However, net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months is 0.63 – a low level that leaves significant headroom for borrowing. The company drew and repaid loans during H1: RUB 50.9 bn raised and RUB 50.9 bn repaid, indicating refinancing rather than debt accumulation.

Capex declined, but free cash flow remains negative

Capital expenditures in Q2 2026 were RUB 23.6 bn (RUB 52.7 bn for H1), down from Q1 (RUB 28.3 bn) and well below the peak of 2024 (RUB 53.2 bn per quarter). The company is gradually trimming its investment program.

Nevertheless, free cash flow (OCF minus capex) remains negative: over the last 12 months, OCF was RUB 98.1 bn, while capex was around RUB 100 bn (sum of quarterly values for the last four quarters). This means the company spends more on investments than it generates from operations, covering the gap with debt.

Dividend yield of 12% is above fair, but payout is uncertain

Over the last 12 months, the company paid dividends of RUB 0.1865 per share, implying a yield of 12.0% at the current market cap of RUB 80.6 bn. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 0.19 per share, also a 12.0% yield – above the fair yield of 10.5% for this name.

The payout ratio is 0.4 of profit, in line with dividend policy. However, with negative free cash flow, dividend payments are funded by debt. In H1 2026, the company declared dividends of RUB 9.1 bn, comparable to quarterly net profit.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report shows strong operational growth: revenue and EBITDA are growing at double-digit rates, margins are expanding, and net profit rose 69% YoY. However, this growth is driven by operating leverage and a low base, not by improved cash flow – OCF fell 17% in the quarter, and free cash flow remains negative. Debt is low (0.63 EBITDA), but rising, and if current dynamics persist, the company will fund investments and dividends with borrowings. For shareholders, the key question is whether the company can convert profit into cash without increasing debt, and maintain dividends at a 12% yield.