NLMK: revenue declines, but margin holds — the question is how long it can last

30 июля НЛМК раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка снизилась на 9,1% год к году до 199,1 млрд руб., EBITDA — на 8,8% до 34,9 млрд руб., чистая прибыль упала на 33,0% до 15,6 млрд руб. Маржа EBITDA осталась на уровне 17,5%, но чистая маржа сократилась с 10,6% до 7,8%. В обзоре разберём, что поддержало рентабельность, почему прибыль упала сильнее выручки, и как компания выглядит на фоне своей истории.

Key takeaways

— Выручка во втором квартале сократилась на 9,1% год к году — до 199,1 млрд руб., но падение замедлилось по сравнению с первым кварталом

— EBITDA-маржа осталась на уровне 17,5% — компания удержала рентабельность, несмотря на снижение выручки

— Чистая прибыль упала на 33,0% — сильнее выручки, из-за роста финансовых расходов и убытков от курсовых разниц

— Операционный денежный поток во втором квартале составил 9,8 млрд руб. — заметно ниже прибыли, что отражает рост дебиторской задолженности

— Чистый долг отрицательный: минус 45,4 млрд руб., или -0,26 EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев

— Акции после выхода отчёта потеряли 9,5% — рынок разочарован слабой динамикой прибыли

— Мультипликатор EV/EBITDA на уровне 2,0 — значительно ниже среднего за три года (3,7)

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue in Q2 fell 9.1% YoY to RUB 199.1 bn, but the decline slowed versus Q1

In Q2 2026, NLMK's revenue was RUB 199.1 bn, down 9.1% YoY. The decline slowed from Q1's -13.9% YoY. For H1, revenue fell to RUB 387.7 bn from RUB 438.7 bn a year earlier.

The main drag was metal product sales, which dropped by RUB 50 bn in H1 versus the same period last year. Delivery services revenue declined only slightly, from RUB 16.7 bn to RUB 15.8 bn.

EBITDA margin held at 17.5% — the company maintained profitability despite lower revenue

EBITDA in Q2 was RUB 34.9 bn, down 8.8% YoY, but the margin stayed exactly at 17.5%. This suggests the company offset lower prices or volumes with lower cost of sales.

Cost of sales fell by RUB 12.2 bn YoY in the quarter, almost fully offsetting the RUB 19.9 bn drop in revenue. As a result, gross profit declined by only RUB 7.7 bn, and operating profit by RUB 4.3 bn.

Net profit fell 33.0% — more than revenue, due to higher finance costs and FX losses

Net profit in Q2 was RUB 15.6 bn versus RUB 23.3 bn a year earlier. The 33.0% drop is much steeper than revenue or EBITDA, pointing to pressure on the bottom line.

Key drivers: negative FX differences of RUB -392 mn versus a gain of RUB 5.3 bn a year earlier, and finance costs up from RUB 239 mn to RUB 748 mn. Additionally, the company recorded a loss of RUB 225 mn on financial instruments, versus nil a year ago.

Operating cash flow in Q2 was RUB 9.8 bn — well below profit, reflecting higher receivables

In Q2, operating cash flow was RUB 9.8 bn — well below net profit of RUB 15.6 bn. For H1, OCF reached RUB 19.5 bn, also below H1 profit (RUB 20.5 bn).

The main reason is a RUB 33.2 bn increase in trade and other receivables in H1. Inventories also rose slightly, and payables declined. As a result, operating cash flow trails profit, limiting room for investment and dividends.

Net debt is negative: RUB -45.4 bn, or -0.26 EBITDA for the last 12 months

At end-June, NLMK's net debt was RUB -45.4 bn — cash and financial investments exceed debt. Net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months is -0.26. Net debt rose by RUB 1.8 bn in the quarter but fell by RUB 21.9 bn over the year.

The company retains a solid financial cushion: short-term investments and cash total RUB 140.6 bn, comfortably covering total debt of RUB 39.7 bn. Interest expense for H1 was only RUB 1.1 bn, while interest income was RUB 9.3 bn.

Shares lost 9.5% after the report — the market is disappointed by weak profit dynamics

Before the report, NLMK shares traded at RUB 73.2. On the release day they fell 1.3%, and by August 17 they had lost another 9.5%. The cumulative drop over two and a half weeks is more than 10%.

The market clearly expected stronger results: a one-third drop in net profit with stable EBITDA margin suggests operating efficiency is not translating into cash flow. Investors may also have reacted to the absence of dividends: no payments in the last 12 months, and the model estimates zero for the next payout.

EV/EBITDA multiple at 2.0 — well below the three-year average of 3.7

Current EV/EBITDA for the last twelve months is 2.0 — almost half the three-year average of 3.7. P/E is also low at 7.0. This valuation reflects both falling profit and general market pessimism toward the steel sector.

On the other hand, a low multiple could indicate undervaluation: if the company can stabilize revenue and restore cash flow, the re-rating potential is significant. But for now, the market is pricing in further deterioration.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

NLMK reported Q2 with an expected revenue decline but managed to hold EBITDA margin at 17.5% — the main positive in the report. However, net profit fell by a third due to FX losses and higher finance costs, and operating cash flow came in well below profit due to receivables accumulation. The company retains negative net debt and trades at a discount to its own history, but the market is clearly disappointed by the absence of dividends and weak profit dynamics. The key question for shareholders is whether NLMK can convert operating efficiency into cash flow and resume payouts.