OGK-2: revenue fell 15% and the quarter closed at a loss again

On 11 November OGK-2 reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue fell 15.0% year on year to RUB 38,776 mn, EBITDA came in at RUB 2,075 mn at a 5.4% margin, and net profit was negative again at minus RUB 2,081 mn versus minus RUB 2,123 mn a year earlier. Our conclusion: rather unattractive – the EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.9 is 53% above its own three-year average of 3.2, and the dividend yield is zero. Our view: the share is rather unattractive at the current price; no portal model for this share; EV/EBITDA 4.9 against a 3-year average of 3.2, a 53% premium to its history.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Revenue contracted 15.0% in the third quarter after growing 15.6% in the second – a sharp deceleration with no explanation in the numbers

— EBITDA of RUB 2,075 mn at a 5.4% margin is a level where operating costs almost consume the entire result

— An operating loss of RUB 977 mn alongside positive EBITDA shows that depreciation and other operating items weigh more than EBITDA suggests

— A net loss of RUB 2,081 mn for the second quarter in a row – there has been no profit for two reporting periods

— Net debt fell to RUB 32.8 bn from RUB 45.9 bn on 30 June, but rose by RUB 3.0 bn versus 30 September 2025

— No dividends were paid over the last 12 months, and our estimate of the annual dividend is RUB 0.0 per share

— EV/EBITDA of 4.9 versus its own three-year average of 3.2 – a 53% premium, the stock is more expensive than its history

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue contracted 15.0% in the third quarter after growing 15.6% in the second – a sharp deceleration with no explanation in the numbers

Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was RUB 38,776 mn, 15.0% less than a year earlier. In the second quarter of the same year the indicator grew 15.6%, meaning the dynamic reversed from growth to decline within one quarter. In absolute terms third-quarter revenue was only slightly below the second quarter (RUB 38,416 mn), but the year-on-year difference is fundamental.

The reasons for the reversal are not disclosed in the numbers. The data show only that quarter-on-quarter revenue barely moved while year-on-year it fell – meaning the weakness comes from last year's comparison base, not from sequential deterioration. For a power generator this could relate to supply volumes or prices, but the specific factor is not named in the report.

EBITDA of RUB 2,075 mn at a 5.4% margin is a level where operating costs almost consume the entire result

EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was RUB 2,075 mn at a 5.4% margin. A year earlier the indicator was practically zero (RUB 8 mn), so the year-on-year growth looks manifold but comes off a low base. A 5.4% margin means about five kopecks of operating profit before depreciation remain per rouble of revenue – a thin layer.

For a company with quarterly revenue near RUB 39 bn, such a margin leaves little room for manoeuvre. Any movement in costs – fuel, repairs, personnel – can push EBITDA into negative territory, as already happened in the fourth quarter of 2024. The resilience of the result is low.

An operating loss of RUB 977 mn alongside positive EBITDA shows that depreciation and other operating items weigh more than EBITDA suggests

The operating result for the third quarter of 2026 was negative at minus RUB 977 mn. EBITDA was positive (RUB 2,075 mn), so the gap between them – depreciation and other operating items – exceeds RUB 3 bn for the quarter. This means that even with positive EBITDA the company is loss-making at the operating level.

Such a structure is typical for capital-intensive generation: depreciation is large relative to revenue. But when an operating loss repeats, it signals that asset wear and related charges consume the result faster than new profit is generated. For a shareholder this matters because operating profit is the base for net profit and therefore for dividends.

A net loss of RUB 2,081 mn for the second quarter in a row – there has been no profit for two reporting periods

The net loss for the third quarter of 2026 was RUB 2,081 mn versus a loss of RUB 2,123 mn a year earlier. The second quarter of 2026 was also a loss at RUB 357 mn. Thus the company has remained in the red for two consecutive quarters, and the third quarter was worse than the second in absolute terms.

The net margin in the third quarter was minus 5.4% versus minus 4.7% a year earlier – loss-making deepened slightly. With revenue of RUB 38,776 mn and negative operating profit, the net loss is formed mainly by interest and other items below the operating line. There is no profit from which dividends could be paid for the quarter.

Net debt fell to RUB 32.8 bn from RUB 45.9 bn on 30 June, but rose by RUB 3.0 bn versus 30 September 2025

Net debt as of 30 September 2026 was RUB 32.8 bn versus RUB 45.9 bn on 30 June 2026 – a decrease of RUB 13.1 bn over the quarter. However, year on year debt rose: on 30 September 2025 it was RUB 29.7 bn, meaning RUB 3.0 bn was added over 12 months. The quarterly reduction partly reversed the increase accumulated in the first half.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the last 12 months is 2.38. This is neither low nor critical, but with current quarterly EBITDA of RUB 2,075 mn, debt servicing requires a significant share of operating profit. Interest expenses already contribute to the net loss.

No dividends were paid over the last 12 months, and our estimate of the annual dividend is RUB 0.0 per share

No dividends were paid over the last 12 months, and our estimate of the annual dividend is RUB 0.0 per share. This is a direct consequence of losses: with negative net profit there is no base for payment. The last payment in history was RUB 0.0598 per share for calendar 2025 with a 13.7% yield at the ex-date, but it relates to a past period and does not repeat automatically.

Our estimate is built on the dividend-potential model with a 0.54 payout ratio, but the profit base is negative at minus RUB 1,783 mn. The calculated dividend therefore zeroes out. At the current price of RUB 0.2315 and a key rate of 14.0%, the fair yield we consider for this name is 15.5%, and the current payout does not reach it. For a dividend to appear, the company needs to return to net profit, not to a one-off EBITDA improvement.

EV/EBITDA of 4.9 versus its own three-year average of 3.2 – a 53% premium, the stock is more expensive than its history

On the EV/EBITDA multiple for the last 12 months the stock trades at 4.9 versus its own three-year average of 3.2. That is a 53% premium to history – the market values the company more expensively than it has been worth itself over the past three years. At the same time profit is negative, and EBITDA for the last 12 months is RUB 13,776.9 mn.

Market capitalisation is RUB 31.5 bn and net debt is RUB 32.8 bn. Enterprise value is therefore roughly twice capitalisation, and leverage noticeably affects the valuation. A premium to its own history amid losses and a zero dividend looks undeserved: there is no reason to pay above the three-year average given the current dynamic.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The only strong item in the report was the quarterly reduction in net debt – from RUB 45.9 bn to RUB 32.8 bn on 30 September. Everything else points the other way: revenue fell 15.0%, EBITDA at a 5.4% margin is thin, operating and net losses have repeated for a second quarter, and there are no dividends. The question for a holder now is not when profit will recover, but why the stock trades 53% above its three-year history with a zero payout. Our conclusion: rather unattractive – EV/EBITDA of 4.9 versus the 3.2 average, a 53% premium. Our view: the share is rather unattractive at the current price; no portal model for this share; EV/EBITDA 4.9 against a 3-year average of 3.2, a 53% premium to its history.