Rosneft: Q2 2026 revenue up 14%, but profit down 14.3% on other expenses

31 августа 2026 года Роснефть раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 14,0% год к году, до 2 257,0 млрд руб., EBITDA – на 27,4%, до 576,0 млрд руб., но чистая прибыль сократилась на 14,3%, до 120,0 млрд руб. Разбор показывает, что рост операционных показателей не транслировался в чистую прибыль из-за прочих расходов, и оценивает, что это значит для акционеров.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 14.0% in Q2 – first growth in four quarters

— EBITDA up 27.4% – margin expanded to 25.5% from 22.8%

— Net profit fell 14.3% – other expenses ate the operating growth

— Debt burden – 1.54 EBITDA: a level, not a trend

— Dividend yield 4.5% – below our fair 10.5%

— Capex and dividends: free cash flow under question

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue grew 14.0% in Q2 – first growth in four quarters

In Q2 2026, Rosneft's revenue reached RUB 2,257.0 bn, up 14.0% year-on-year. This is the first positive annual growth after four quarters of decline: Q1 2026 was down 11.0%, Q4 2025 – 23.9%, Q3 2025 – 19.5%, Q2 2025 – 23.9%. The turnaround was already visible in Q1 2026, when the decline slowed to 11.0%.

For H1 2026, revenue was RUB 4,289.0 bn per the report, only 0.6% above the RUB 4,263.0 bn a year earlier. The main driver of Q2 growth, judging by the dynamics, was oil, gas and petroleum products – their sales for the half-year were RUB 4,208.0 bn versus RUB 4,184.0 bn in H1 2025.

EBITDA up 27.4% – margin expanded to 25.5% from 22.8%

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 27.4% year-on-year to RUB 576.0 bn, with EBITDA margin expanding from 22.8% to 25.5%. This happened against a 14.0% revenue increase, meaning the company grew faster in EBITDA than in revenue.

Over the last twelve months, EBITDA was RUB 2,321.0 bn, above the full-year 2025 figure (RUB 2,057.0 bn if you sum the quarters). The margin expansion in Q2 is a positive signal, especially after a weak Q2 2025 when the margin was 22.8%.

Net profit fell 14.3% – other expenses ate the operating growth

Net profit in Q2 2026 was RUB 120.0 bn, down 14.3% year-on-year. The reason is other expenses: in H1 2026 they reached RUB 195.0 bn versus RUB 14.0 bn in H1 2025. This includes finance costs, exchange differences, and other items.

Operating profit for the half-year rose to RUB 641.0 bn from RUB 582.0 bn, but after other expenses, pre-tax profit fell to RUB 446.0 bn from RUB 568.0 bn. Income tax increased to RUB 164.0 bn from RUB 151.0 bn, further reducing the bottom line.

Over the last twelve months, net profit was RUB 409.0 bn – below the 2025 full-year figure (RUB 680.0 bn by sum of quarters), reflecting weak profitability in H2 2025.

Debt burden – 1.54 EBITDA: a level, not a trend

Net debt on the balance sheet is RUB 3,572.4 bn, corresponding to 1.54 EBITDA over the last twelve months. This is a level, not a trend: we have no prior-period data for comparison, so we cannot say whether leverage rose or fell.

Over the last twelve months, net debt was unchanged – an increase of RUB 0.0 bn. This suggests the company did not add debt, but also did not reduce it. With EBITDA of RUB 2,321.0 bn and other expenses of RUB 195.0 bn for the half-year, debt servicing remains a significant item.

Dividend yield 4.5% – below our fair 10.5%

Over the last twelve months, Rosneft paid RUB 13.83 per share, giving a dividend yield of 4.5% at the current market cap of RUB 3,315.1 bn. Our model estimates the next payout also at RUB 13.83 per share, corresponding to a forward yield of 4.5%.

We consider a fair yield of 10.5% for this name, notably above the current level. This means the market values the shares at a premium to our benchmark, and to reach the fair yield, the price would need to be lower or dividends higher. The payout ratio is 0.47 of profit, leaving room for higher dividends if profit recovers.

Capex and dividends: free cash flow under question

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow is not disclosed, but for H1 2026 it was RUB 916.0 bn (sum of Q1 and Q2, assuming Q1 2026 – RUB 365.0 bn and Q2 – RUB 551.0 bn, but this is unconfirmed). Capex for H1 – RUB 769.0 bn (382.0 + 387.0), leaving free cash flow of about RUB 147.0 bn – less than dividends for 12 months (RUB 13.83 per share, which at 9.6 bn shares gives about RUB 132.8 bn).

Over the last twelve months, capex was RUB 1,515.0 bn (sum of quarters), exceeding operating cash flow for the same period (RUB 2,294.0 bn by sum of quarters, but Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 are not disclosed, so exact calculation is impossible). This creates risk for dividend sustainability if operating flow does not recover.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, Rosneft showed strong operating growth: revenue grew 14.0% for the first time in four quarters, EBITDA rose 27.4%, and margin expanded to 25.5%. However, net profit fell 14.3% due to other expenses of RUB 195.0 bn for the half-year, offsetting the operating progress. Debt burden remains at 1.54 EBITDA, but the dividend yield of 4.5% is below our fair benchmark of 10.5%, and capex exceeds operating cash flow. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can convert operating growth into net profit and cash flow sufficient to sustain dividends.