TBank: profit up 57.7%, but loan-loss provisions are growing faster than the business

On 10 November TBank reported third-quarter 2026 results: net interest income reached RUB 170.5 bn, net profit – RUB 63.4 bn. Year on year, net interest income grew 28.7% and profit 57.7%, while profit as a share of net interest income rose to 37.2% from 30.3% a year earlier. Growth decelerated: revenue added 28.7% versus 31.2% a quarter earlier. Our verdict: rather attractive – on the portal's model the share trades at a +38% discount to fair value, and that cushion outweighs the credit-cycle risk. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +38%.

Our view: is there upside

Our view in numbers

Key takeaways

— Net interest income grew 28.7% on cheaper funding

— Profit added 57.7%, but loan-loss provisions are growing faster than the business

— Revenue growth decelerated from 31.2% to 28.7% – the ecosystem grows, but more slowly

— The 2026 dividend is RUB 17.4 per share, a 6.3% yield against a 14% key rate

— P/E of 3.5 and ROE of 31.6% – the market values the bank below its own return

— On the portal's model the share sits 38% below fair value

Key figures, RUB bn

Net interest income grew 28.7% on cheaper funding

Net interest income for the third quarter reached RUB 170.5 bn, 28.7% more than a year earlier. Interest income rose to RUB 289.8 bn, while interest expense fell to RUB 119.3 bn from RUB 143.8 bn a year earlier – the bank pays less for client funds.

The drop in funding costs is a direct consequence of monetary easing: the CBR key rate fell from 16% at end-2025 to 14% in July 2026. The bank reprices deposits in line with the rate, while the loan book holds higher yields for longer.

The loan portfolio grew to RUB 3,759.0 bn from RUB 3,170.7 bn at end-2025. That is the source of net interest income growth: the bank is expanding lending faster than funding costs rise.

Profit added 57.7%, but loan-loss provisions are growing faster than the business

Net profit for the third quarter reached RUB 63.4 bn versus RUB 40.2 bn a year earlier. Earnings per share were RUB 24.02 versus RUB 15.60. Profit as a share of net interest income rose to 37.2% from 30.3%.

Expected credit loss provisions rose to RUB 46.1 bn from RUB 46.1 bn a year earlier – seemingly flat, but over nine months they reached RUB 133.1 bn versus RUB 125.8 bn a year earlier. A growing loan book requires ever more provisioning: provisions grow with volume, not only with quality.

Profit before tax rose to RUB 83.1 bn from RUB 52.9 bn – up 57.1%. The tax burden stayed proportional: RUB 19.7 bn versus RUB 12.7 bn a year earlier. The gap between profit growth and net interest income growth is explained by provisions and operating costs rising more slowly than income.

Revenue growth decelerated from 31.2% to 28.7% – the ecosystem grows, but more slowly

Group revenue for the third quarter reached RUB 418.8 bn versus RUB 391.0 bn a year earlier. Year-on-year growth decelerated: 28.7% in the third quarter versus 31.2% in the second. This is not a reversal, but the pace has slowed for a second consecutive quarter.

Service revenue rose to RUB 104.8 bn from RUB 92.6 bn – up 13.2%. Insurance revenue added to RUB 24.2 bn from RUB 22.1 bn – up 9.5%. Both lines grow more slowly than net interest income, so their share of revenue is declining.

Technology and product development costs rose to RUB 29.4 bn from RUB 24.2 bn – up 21.5%. Marketing and client acquisition – RUB 29.4 bn versus RUB 27.3 bn. The bank continues to invest in the ecosystem, and that weighs on operating leverage.

The 2026 dividend is RUB 17.4 per share, a 6.3% yield against a 14% key rate

Over the last 12 months TBank paid RUB 17.4 per share – the 2026 dividend, paid at an ex-date price of RUB 271.68 for a 6.4% yield. A year earlier the payout was RUB 10.0 per share, and in 2024 – RUB 9.25. The near-doubling of the payout reflects profit growth.

Our estimate for the current year's dividend is the same RUB 17.4 per share, or 6.3% at the RUB 274.88 price. The model assumes a 24% payout on a profit base of RUB 192.4 bn. The estimate is not tied to a specific financial year: the board decides on the facts.

A 6.3% yield against a 14% key rate is a discount to the risk-free rate. The fair yield for this name, in our estimate, is 10.5%. To close that gap, either the dividend must rise or the price must fall. For now the market values the bank below its ability to pay.

The payout could be smaller if loan-loss provisions keep growing faster than profit: over nine months they already reached RUB 133.1 bn versus RUB 125.8 bn a year earlier. The more the bank sets aside to cover credit risk, the less remains for dividends.

P/E of 3.5 and ROE of 31.6% – the market values the bank below its own return

TBank's market capitalisation is RUB 737.4 bn, and trailing twelve-month profit is RUB 209.9 bn. That gives a P/E of 3.5. With a return on equity of 31.6%, the market pays less for a ruble of profit than the bank earns on a ruble of capital.

On the portal's model, which sets ROE against P/B, the share's fair value is 38% above the current price. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus. It rests on the bank's ability to sustain high profitability at the current price.

A 6.3% dividend yield and a P/E of 3.5 together paint a picture of an undervalued bank. But the market is pricing in risk: provisions are rising and revenue growth is slowing. If profit holds at RUB 209.9 bn over 12 months, the current price offers a cushion.

On the portal's model the share sits 38% below fair value

The portal's model puts fair value 38% above the current price of RUB 274.88. This is our own calculation, based on comparing ROE of 31.6% with a P/E of 3.5. It is not a target price and does not account for one-off items.

The estimate rests on trailing twelve-month profit of RUB 209.9 bn. If third-quarter profit of RUB 63.4 bn repeats, annual profit will exceed the model's base and the cushion will widen. If provisions eat into profit, the cushion will shrink.

The share is held in the portal's live model strategies – RU Banks & financials (potential). That is a fact of membership by the strategy's screen, not an argument for the verdict.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

What was strong in the report was everything tied to funding: net interest income grew 28.7% while client funding costs fell, delivering RUB 63.4 bn of profit. What was weak was provisions: over nine months they rose to RUB 133.1 bn, and a growing loan book requires ever more charges. The RUB 17.4 per share dividend yields 6.3% – below the key rate, but above what the bank paid a year earlier. On the portal's model the share sits 38% below fair value, and that cushion outweighs the credit-cycle risk. Our verdict: rather attractive – a +38% cushion on the portal's model. Our view: the share is rather attractive at the current price; upside on the portal model +38%.