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ZA Commodity-Upside

Live paper-track since 6 Jul 2026
Today+0.1%
CAGR (backtest)+7.8%
Sharpe0.41
maxDD-45.1%
vol25.9%
edge vs JSE All Share-2.4%
Backtest vs JSE All Share
By calendar year vs JSE
YearStratJSEΔ
2026*-7.0%-6.4%-0.6%
2025+100.4%+37.7%+62.6%
2024-7.2%+10.2%-17.4%
2023-18.5%+4.0%-22.5%
2022+17.5%-0.4%+17.9%
2021+7.1%+24.1%-17.0%
2020+0.0%+4.1%-4.1%
2019*+0.0%+11.3%-11.3%
* partial year
⚠ point-in-time (survivorship-immune): monthly hold the 6 cheapest miners by as-of-date EV/EBITDA

Performance vs index

PeriodStrategyJSE All Sharevs index
Day+0.1%-0.2%+0.3%
Week+1.1%-2.4%+3.5%
Month-13.7%-7.3%-6.4%

Portfolio (14 Sep 2026)

#HoldingWeightDayscore
1GFI
modelled potential -18%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+0.2%-18%
2AU
modelled potential -32%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.5%-32%
3HAR
modelled potential -43%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+0.7%-43%
4EXX
modelled potential -46%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+0.3%-46%
5VAL
modelled potential -51%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+0.1%-51%
6KIO
modelled potential -56%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.1%-56%

Signal feed / trades

RebalanceSignalHoldingPrice (ZAR)WeightResult
14 Sep 2026BuyKIO
Kumba Iron Ore
modelled potential -56%; equal weight 16.7%.
23 72016.7%—
SellAGL
Anglo American
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -41%)
84 722—-9.0%
8 Sep 2026BuyEXX
Exxaro Resources
modelled potential -47%; equal weight 16.7%.
20 72716.7%—
BuyVAL
Valterra Platinum
modelled potential -48%; equal weight 16.7%.
143 26916.7%—
SellSSW
Sibanye-Stillwater
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -3%)
5 282—+21.7%
SellNPH
Northam Platinum
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -30%)
32 495—+20.7%
28 Aug 2026BuyAGL
Anglo American
modelled potential -41%; equal weight 16.7%.
93 15016.7%—
SellEXX
Exxaro Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -29%)
18 693—-5.8%
7 Aug 2026BuySSW
Sibanye-Stillwater
modelled potential -17%; equal weight 16.7%.
4 34116.7%—
BuyNPH
Northam Platinum
modelled potential -38%; equal weight 16.7%.
26 92316.7%—
SellKIO
Kumba Iron Ore
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -36%)
25 937—-8.5%
SellAGL
Anglo American
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -85%)
88 100—+16.6%
17 Jul 2026BuyAGL
Anglo American
modelled potential -85%; equal weight 16.7%.
75 53716.7%—
SellIMP
Impala Platinum
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -84%)
17 668—-6.5%
14 Jul 2026BuyEXX
Exxaro Resources
modelled potential +3%; equal weight 16.7%.
19 84616.7%—
BuyKIO
Kumba Iron Ore
modelled potential -22%; equal weight 16.7%.
28 33216.7%—
BuyIMP
Impala Platinum
modelled potential -84%; equal weight 16.7%.
18 89516.7%—
6 Jul 2026
initial book
BuyGFI
Gold Fields
modelled potential -22%; equal weight 33.3%.
33.8433.3%—
BuyAU
AngloGold Ashanti
modelled potential -24%; equal weight 33.3%.
83.5233.3%—
BuyHAR
Harmony Gold
modelled potential -57%; equal weight 33.3%.
26 36333.3%—

Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.