Lukoil: H1 profit up 4.9x, but almost all from discontinued operations

28 августа Лукойл раскрыл сокращённую промежуточную отчётность за первое полугодие 2026 года. Чистая прибыль от продолжающейся деятельности выросла на 387,3% год к году, до 440,1 млрд руб., EBITDA — на 61,3%, до 815,6 млрд руб., при выручке 2 059,3 млрд руб. (+8,0%). В обзоре разберём, что стоит за этими цифрами, как на них повлияла деконсолидация зарубежных активов и что это значит для акционеров.

Key takeaways

— Net profit for the half-year rose 4.9x, but in 2025 it included profit from discontinued operations, and in 2026 it did not

— EBITDA margin for the half-year was 39.6% versus 26.5% a year earlier – helped by a 3.2x reduction in commercial, general and administrative expenses

— Operating cash flow for the half-year rose 11.0% to RUB 790.0 bn, but capital expenditures fell 38.1%

— Net debt at the end of the half-year was minus RUB 10.2 bn, i.e. cash exceeds debt

— Dividends over the last 12 months – RUB 675 per share, yield 15.6%, above our fair level of 11.4%

— EV/EBITDA for the last 12 months – 2.78, close to the three-year average (2.73)

— Return on equity – 23.5%, supporting a high dividend yield

Key figures, RUB bn

Net profit for the half-year rose 4.9x, but in 2025 it included profit from discontinued operations, and in 2026 it did not

For H1 2026, Lukoil's net profit was RUB 440.1 bn versus RUB 288.6 bn a year earlier. The 387.3% growth versus 2025 looks impressive, but the comparison is not direct: in 2025, net profit included profit from discontinued operations of RUB 198.3 bn, while in 2026 there is none.

Profit from continuing operations for H1 2026 was RUB 430.9 bn, 4.9x higher than RUB 87.5 bn for the same period in 2025. The growth was driven by operating results and cost reductions, as discussed below.

EBITDA margin for the half-year was 39.6% versus 26.5% a year earlier – helped by a 3.2x reduction in commercial, general and administrative expenses

EBITDA for H1 2026 rose 61.3% YoY to RUB 815.6 bn, on revenue of RUB 2,059.3 bn (+8.0%). EBITDA margin expanded from 26.5% to 39.6%.

The key contribution came from a reduction in commercial, general and administrative expenses: for the half-year they were RUB 76.7 bn versus RUB 242.2 bn a year earlier – a 3.2x decrease. This is a consequence of the deconsolidation of foreign assets, which were previously included in these items.

Operating cash flow for the half-year rose 11.0% to RUB 790.0 bn, but capital expenditures fell 38.1%

Operating cash flow for H1 2026 was RUB 790.0 bn versus RUB 711.6 bn a year earlier (+11.0%). The growth is more modest than profit due to changes in working capital and tax payments.

Capital expenditures for the half-year fell 38.1% to RUB 239.1 bn from RUB 386.6 bn a year earlier. This reflects both lower investment activity after deconsolidation and general caution amid sanctions.

Net debt at the end of the half-year was minus RUB 10.2 bn, i.e. cash exceeds debt

As of June 30, 2026, Lukoil's net debt was minus RUB 10.2 bn, i.e. cash and equivalents (RUB 661.4 bn) exceed total debt (RUB 318.7 bn of short-term and long-term). Over the last 12 months, net debt decreased by RUB 134.0 bn.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the last 12 months is minus 0.01, indicating virtually zero leverage. This provides financial flexibility, but also raises the question of how the free funds will be used.

Dividends over the last 12 months – RUB 675 per share, yield 15.6%, above our fair level of 11.4%

Over the last 12 months, Lukoil paid RUB 675 per share, providing a dividend yield of 15.6% at the current price. Our model estimates the next payment also at RUB 675 per share, implying a forward yield of 15.6%.

This is above the 11.4% level we consider fair for this name. The payout ratio is 0.79 of profit, consistent with the company's dividend policy.

EV/EBITDA for the last 12 months – 2.78, close to the three-year average (2.73)

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 2.78 versus the three-year average of 2.73. The shares are trading almost exactly in line with their historical valuation, suggesting a neutral re-rating relative to its own history.

P/E for the last 12 months is 31.5, higher than many oil companies, but this reflects lower profit due to deconsolidation and one-off write-offs. Return on equity is 23.5%, supporting a high dividend yield.

Return on equity – 23.5%, supporting a high dividend yield

Return on equity for the last 12 months was 23.5%. This is a high level that allows the company to generate sufficient profit to pay dividends with a payout ratio of 0.79.

With such profitability and virtually zero debt, the company can sustain a dividend yield of 15.6% without compromising its investment program. However, amid sanctions and uncertainty over foreign assets, the question of capital allocation remains open.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is a 4.9x increase in profit from continuing operations, EBITDA margin expansion to 39.6%, and virtually zero net debt. However, much of the improvement is related to the deconsolidation of foreign assets, which reduced costs but also deprived the company of part of its business. The dividend yield of 15.6% looks attractive, but its sustainability depends on the ability to generate profit in the new environment. The key question for shareholders is how the company will use its accumulated cash and whether it can maintain payments at the current level.