Gold and platinum outshine a wobbly banking and insurance patch

This season's defining split is between commodity producers riding a price wave and financials caught in a revenue squeeze. Gold and PGM miners posted median revenue growth of +34.3% and +64.1% respectively, while banks managed just +3.6% and insurers actually shrank by -11.8%. The gap between the best and worst industry medians is a staggering 84 percentage points — the widest divergence in recent memory.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Gold miners delivered the strongest profit leverage, not just revenue

Gold Fields led the pack with revenue up +70.7% and EBITDA surging +95.5% year over year, while net profit jumped +80.6%. Harmony Gold was even more impressive on the bottom line: revenue +34.3%, EBITDA +82.2%, and net profit more than doubled at +104.0%. These are not just price-driven numbers — they reflect disciplined cost control and operational gearing that magnifies every rand of revenue growth.

Among PGM producers, Impala Platinum stood out with revenue +58.1% and EBITDA +248.4%, while Valterra Platinum posted the highest revenue growth in the entire dataset at +93.2% and EBITDA up +390.1%. Northam Platinum also delivered a strong +64.1% revenue increase and +158.1% EBITDA growth. The platinum group metals complex is clearly in a cyclical upswing that is translating directly into exceptional profit growth.

Insurers and iron ore producers were the weakest links, with sharp margin compression

The insurance sector posted a median revenue decline of -11.8%, dragged down by Momentum Group's staggering -57.0% revenue drop and Old Mutual's -32.7% decline. Even Sanlam, which grew net profit +29.1%, saw revenue fall -11.8% and EBITDA drop -24.4%. Iron ore was equally ugly: Kumba Iron Ore reported revenue -10.6%, EBITDA -26.8%, and net profit -41.7%. These are not just cyclical dips — they signal structural pressure on margins that income-focused investors should watch closely.

The plot twist: Capitec's revenue more than doubled, yet its P/E sits at 31x — priced for perfection

Capitec Bank delivered a stunning +94.8% revenue increase year over year, far ahead of any other bank and even outpacing most commodity producers. Yet its net profit grew only +19.2%, and the stock trades at a hefty P/E of 31.2x — the highest in the entire dataset. This is a classic case of the market pricing in future growth that may be hard to sustain. By contrast, FirstRand saw revenue fall -11.6% and net profit drop -14.6%, yet trades at 14.1x earnings — a warning sign that even quality franchises can stumble.

Cheap for the growth: Harmony Gold at 5.6x earnings and Impala Platinum at 4.9x look like bargains

Harmony Gold trades at a P/E of just 5.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x despite growing net profit +104.0% — that is remarkably cheap for a company with such explosive earnings momentum. Impala Platinum is even cheaper at 4.9x earnings and 3.0x EV/EBITDA, with EBITDA up +248.4%. On the expensive side, Remgro stands out with a P/E of 72.1x and EV/EBITDA of 17.9x, despite revenue declining -3.7% and net profit plunging -56.5%. That is priced for perfection and then some — a clear avoid for value-focused investors.

Income seekers: OUTsurance and Vodacom offer the most reliable yields

OUTsurance Group grew revenue +12.6% and net profit +19.5%, and while its P/E of 23.7x is not cheap, it has a track record of consistent dividend growth. Vodacom Group posted revenue +10.1% and net profit +24.4%, with a P/E of 15.1x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x — a more balanced income and growth proposition. For pure yield, Telkom SA at 7.8x earnings and 1.9x EV/EBITDA looks attractive, but its net profit fell -52.7%, so the dividend may be at risk.

Looking at the long view, Naspers stands out with a 3-year revenue CAGR of +22.1%, and Capitec Bank follows at +20.5% — both well ahead of the market. But the real story is the divergence between commodity producers enjoying a cyclical boom and financials facing structural headwinds. Watch for whether gold and PGM prices hold, and whether the banks can reverse their revenue malaise. The next season will likely separate the sustainable growers from the one-hit wonders.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)