
PhosAgro is a vertically integrated producer of phosphate-based fertilizers, mining apatite in Murmansk region and producing DAP, MAP, NPK and feed phosphates for Russia and export.
Sector: Chemicals
RU_PHOR
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueM USD | Operating profitM USD | D&AM USD | EBITDAM USD | Net profitM USD | Operating CFM USD | Capex + M&AM USD | AssetsM USD | EquityM USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtM USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Q2 2026 (3M) | OK | 1977.0 y/y 15.2% | 285.6 y/y -35.7% | 156.7 y/y 30.3% | 442.3 y/y -21.7% | 243.0 y/y -29.3% | 285.6 | -269.9 | 8849.0 y/y 16.3% | 3396.9 y/y 16.4% | 30.4% | 3976.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2026-03-31 | Q1 2026 (3M) | OK | 1662.4 y/y -3.8% | 205.2 y/y -51.2% | 140.5 y/y 29.7% | 345.7 y/y -34.7% | 2.8 y/y -99.5% | 205.2 | -226.0 | 8319.5 y/y 17.8% | 2996.2 y/y 18.1% | 0.4% | 4012.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | Q4 2025 (3M) | OK | 1642.4 y/y 21.9% | 252.6 y/y -43.9% | 129.1 y/y 54.6% | 381.7 y/y -28.5% | 231.0 y/y 20.9% | 252.6 | -237.9 | 8486.7 y/y 45.6% | 3065.4 y/y 89.2% | 47.7% | 4096.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-09-30 | Q3 2025 (3M) | OK | 1774.0 y/y 22.4% | 501.5 y/y 13.3% | 131.3 y/y 25.3% | 632.7 y/y 15.6% | 249.7 y/y 96.6% | 501.5 | -194.4 | 7405.5 y/y 14.8% | 2646.5 y/y 52.2% | 12.0% | 3671.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | Q2 2025 (3M) | OK | 1715.8 y/y 26.7% | 444.2 y/y 52.9% | 120.3 y/y 16.8% | 564.5 y/y 43.5% | 343.8 y/y -10.6% | 444.2 | -187.3 | 7609.4 y/y 10.8% | 2918.3 y/y 51.6% | 50.4% | 3131.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-03-31 | Q1 2025 (3M) | OK | 1728.2 y/y 31.3% | 420.9 y/y 28.0% | 108.3 y/y 6.1% | 529.2 y/y 22.8% | 516.7 y/y 149.7% | 420.9 | -182.1 | 7061.6 y/y 21.9% | 2537.9 y/y 37.6% | 99.4% | 3142.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | Q4 2024 (3M) | OK | 1386.6 y/y 9.9% | 455.2 y/y 78.9% | 87.5 y/y -6.6% | 542.7 y/y 55.9% | 199.4 y/y -37.6% | 455.2 | -202.1 | 5826.8 y/y -0.6% | 1620.0 y/y -4.2% | 54.1% | 3395.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-09-30 | Q3 2024 (3M) | OK | 1448.9 y/y 17.8% | 442.8 y/y -9.6% | 104.8 y/y 18.3% | 547.5 y/y -5.3% | 127.0 y/y -21.5% | 442.8 | -211.8 | 6448.2 y/y 26.9% | 1739.3 y/y 5.9% | 9.2% | 2941.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | Q2 2024 (3M) | OK | 1354.1 y/y 14.0% | 290.4 y/y -28.9% | 103.0 y/y 6.1% | 393.5 y/y -22.2% | 384.4 y/y 132.5% | 290.4 | -227.6 | 6865.0 y/y 25.6% | 1924.9 y/y 15.8% | 81.6% | 2445.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-03-31 | Q1 2024 (3M) | OK | 1316.1 y/y -17.7% | 328.9 y/y -49.8% | 102.1 y/y -5.2% | 431.0 y/y -43.5% | 206.9 y/y -46.4% | 328.9 | -167.6 | 5792.8 y/y -11.9% | 1844.4 y/y -14.1% | 46.8% | 2774.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | Q4 2023 (3M) | OK | 1198.9 y/y — | 255.4 y/y — | 88.2 y/y — | 343.7 y/y — | 316.0 y/y — | 255.4 | -285.1 | 5860.8 y/y — | 1690.4 y/y — | 62.0% | 3045.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-09-30 | Q3 2023 (3M) | OK | 1230.4 y/y — | 489.6 y/y — | 88.6 y/y — | 578.2 y/y — | 161.9 y/y — | 489.6 | -150.3 | 5083.0 y/y — | 1642.1 y/y — | 13.1% | 2335.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | Q2 2023 (3M) | OK | 1187.9 y/y — | 408.8 y/y — | 97.1 y/y — | 505.8 y/y — | 165.3 y/y — | 408.8 | -191.2 | 5464.7 y/y — | 1662.4 y/y — | 34.7% | 2806.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-03-31 | Q1 2023 (3M) | OK | 1599.2 y/y — | 654.8 y/y — | 107.7 y/y — | 762.5 y/y — | 386.2 y/y — | 654.8 | -143.6 | 6577.3 y/y — | 2147.7 y/y — | — | 1843.8 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 1 603 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 2 670 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 297 |
| Net debt | 3 976 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.2x
Conversion to USD. Balance sheet: rate effective on 2026-06-30, fixing date 2026-06-30. Flows: sampled average at each calculation period's bounds and monthly 15ths. Latest source row: 2026-04-01 — 2026-06-30. Source: Bank of Russia R01235. Rates
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.27x | 1.24x | 1.75x | 1.66x | 1.19x |
| accruals, % of assets | -8.5% | -9.6% | -12.3% | -9.4% | -3.2% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Fertilizers / Phosphate
| Year | Production, Mt |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.20 +3.4% |
| 2024 | 11.80 +4.4% |
| 2023 | 11.30 |
PhosAgro FY2025 results (phosagro.com): agrochemical product output 12.2 Mt (+4% YoY); reported cumulative YTD (Q1 3.11, H1 6.12, 9M 9.15 Mt -> implied Q4 ~3.05). FY2024 11.8 Mt. Apatite ore reserves disclosed as ore tonnage only.
Potential discount −25% (factor 0.75)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 802spot vs LTM +12%
The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.
USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): -30% · spot -4% · 3-yr -56%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 556.5 bln RUB |
| EBITDA | 142.6 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 413.9 bln RUB |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Multiplier — spot | ×1.07 (+7%) |
| = Spot revenue | 594.8 bln RUB |
| Multiplier — 3-yr prices | ×0.96 (-4%) |
| = 3-yr-price revenue | 534.9 bln RUB |
| 3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%) | |
| Cost multiplier | ×1.05 (+5%) |
| = Cash costs | 434.6 bln RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 160.3 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 100.4 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 130.3 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 130.3 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 6.3x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 823.9 bln RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | 312.9 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 510.9 bln RUB |
| Current market cap | 732.7 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -30%
Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.
| Commodity | Revenue share | Spot | LTM avg | $ vs LTM | RUB vs LTM (FX) | RUB 3-yr (FX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAP China | 32% | 802.50 | 716.81 | +12% | +15% | -1% |
| North America Fertilizer Index | 28% | 807.10 | 758.08 | +6% | +9% | -9% |
| Urea (FOB China) | 11% | 400.00 | 462.79 | -14% | -11% | -11% |
| AN (Black Sea) | 4% | 660.41 | 572.00 | +15% | +19% | +5% |
Current 7.3x · 3-year 75th pct 6.8x
Group: materials (Russia). Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| MMK | Russia | 3.1 | 2.7x |
| KuybyshevAzot PAO | Russia | 0.8 | 3.1x |
| NLMK | Russia | 5.4 | 3.6x |
| Polyus | Russia | 12.6 | 3.6x |
| Yuzhuralzoloto Group | Russia | 2.0 | 3.7x |
| Nornickel | Russia | 21.1 | 5.0x |
| Seligdar | Russia | 0.5 | 5.2x |
| Severstal | Russia | 7.2 | 6.1x |
| Alrosa | Russia | 1.8 | 7.9x |
| Rusal | Russia | 4.7 | 10.6x |
| Acron | Russia | 8.6 | 13.5x |
| TMK (pipe) | Russia | 0.9 | 16.3x |
| Group median | 5.1x | ||
| Group average | 6.8x | ||
| This company | Russia | 8.9 | 7.2x |
Group median 5.1x; this company 7.2x — a 40% premium.
Group average 6.8x; against the average this company is at a 6% premium. The average sits 32% above the median: TMK (pipe) (16.3x) skews the group.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -42% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: -16%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 57 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 72% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 1.9x) | 68 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 474.00 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 474.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -8.2 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 10.5% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 5659 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 8.4% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 4751 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 474.00 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 552.00 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 1020.00 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 1098.00 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 558.00 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 300.00 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 249.00 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 105.00 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 q3 | 2025-09-30 | 387.00 ₽ |
| 2025 q2 | 2025-06-06 | 87.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q4 | 2024-12-19 | 126.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q3 | 2024-09-19 | 426.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-12-22 | 291.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q3 | 2023-07-07 | 264.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q1 | 2023-03-31 | 465.00 ₽ |
| 2022 q4 | 2022-12-15 | 318.00 ₽ |
| 2022 q3 | 2022-09-29 | 780.00 ₽ |
| 2021 q4 | 2021-12-16 | 234.00 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 4 (1 negative), last 30 days: 7 (1 positive, 2 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 22 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 02.07.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО 'ФосАгро', состоявшемся 30 июня 2026 года, был утвержден годовой отчет и бухгалтерская отчетность за 2025 год. Дивиденды по акциям не будут выплачиваться. Также избраны новый совет директоров и ревизионная комиссия, а аудиторская организация на 2026 год - Юникон АО. |
| 30.06.26 | Material event | ★ ▼ Информация об иных событиях (действиях), оказывающих, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг Акционеры ПАО 'ФосАгро' утвердили годовой отчет за 2025 год и не приняли решение о выплате дивидендов. Также был избран новый состав Совета директоров и утверждена годовая бухгалтерская отчетность. |
| 21.10.26 | Material event | События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг 21 октября 2026 года истекает срок для направления оферт на заключение предварительных договоров купли-продажи биржевых облигаций ПАО «ФосАгро» серии БО-03-03 с номинальной стоимостью 1 тыс. китайских юаней. Размещение облигаций осуществляется по открытой подписке в рамках программы с регистрационным номером 4-06556-А-003Р-02Е. |
| 24.09.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО 'ФосАгро' утвердил политику внутреннего контроля и управления рисками на заседании 24 сентября 2026 года, на котором присутствовали все члены совета. Голосование по этому вопросу прошло единогласно. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Disclosed in the top-10 of 4 of 17 funds, ≈89 млн ₽ combined.
| Fund | Manager | Weight | ≈Position | Δ weight m/m | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций роста | ДОХОДЪ | 7.10% | 13 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акций | ДОХОДЪ | 6.48% | 66 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестиции | Первая | 5.64% | 9 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SCFT Технологии будущего | Доверительная | 5.35% | 1 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Phosagro (PHOR) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ФосАгро2П1 | float | float | 100.79 | +0.03% | 700K | 2.0M | put 11.2026 |
| ФосАгро2П3 | 9.4% | 7.5% | 98.68 | +0.54% | 15.7M | 45.9M | 09.2027 |
| ФосАгро3П1 | 9.0% | 8.4% | 99.60 | -0.45% | 266K | 550.9M | 04.2028 |
| ФосАгро3П2 | — | 8.95% | — | — | — | — | 07.2028 |
| ФосАЗО28-Д | 9.5% | 2.6% | 88.67 | +0.30% | 1.8M | 11.2M | 09.2028 |
| ФосАгро2П4 | 9.3% | 7% | 96.47 | +0.36% | 235K | 12.9M | 10.2028 |
| ФосАгро2П7 | 14.5% | — | 101.94 | +0.15% | 108K | 1.4M | 10.2028 |
| ФосАгро3П3 | — | 8.95% | — | — | — | — | 02.2029 |
| ФосАгро2П6 | 15.6% | 13.75% | 98.26 | +0.12% | 15.6M | 95.5M | 04.2029 |
| ФосАгро2П5 | 9.0% | 8% | 98.30 | -0.60% | 465K | 38.6M | 05.2029 |
| ФосА1П1USD | 8.6% | 6.25% | 95.20 | +0.53% | 2.8M | 7.2M | 05.2029 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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