Tankers and Silver Outrun a Stalling Energy Patch

This quarter's commodity corporate results were defined by a stark divergence: crude tankers and silver miners posted median revenue growth above 100% and 56% respectively, while polysilicon, uranium and fertilizers contracted. The spread between the best and worst industry medians was over 120 percentage points, a gap that rewards stock pickers and punishes passive exposure.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Tankers and silver miners delivered the strongest top-line growth

Crude tankers led all industries with median revenue growth of +104.9% year over year. International Seaways (INSW) stood out with revenue up 138.8% and net profit up 378.4%, while DHT Holdings (DHT) grew revenue 122.7% and net profit 254.1%. Frontline (FRO) also impressed with revenue up 96.5% and EBITDA up 211.6%. These gains reflect a tight tanker market and strong demand.

Silver miners were the second-best industry, with median revenue growth of +56.5%. Endeavour Silver (EXK) posted a massive revenue increase of 139.4% and net profit up 425.1%, while First Majestic Silver (AG) grew revenue 56.5% and net profit 122.5%. Pan American Silver (PAAS) also delivered solid growth, with revenue up 38.4% and EBITDA up 56.0%. Precious-metals royalty companies also shone, with Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) up 126.4% in revenue and Royal Gold (RGLD) up 114.9%.

Polysilicon and uranium were the clear laggards, with sharp declines

Polysilicon was the worst-performing industry, with median revenue down 17.0% year over year. Daqo New Energy (DQ) saw revenue fall 17.0% and EBITDA plunge 80.8%. Uranium also struggled, with Cameco (CCJ) reporting a 5.6% revenue decline and a 47.4% drop in EBITDA. Fertilizers contracted 1.2% at the median, with The Mosaic Company (MOS) posting a 6.0% revenue decline and a 19.6% EBITDA drop. These industries face oversupply and weak pricing.

The plot twist: oil refining's profit explosion despite modest revenue growth

Oil refining median revenue grew 48.8%, but net profit growth was extraordinary: Valero Energy (VLO) net profit up 421.0%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) up 322.5%, and Phillips 66 (PSX) up 338.7%. This acceleration from prior periods reflects margin expansion. Meanwhile, oil & gas giants like Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) also accelerated, with net profit up 384.8% and 99.4% respectively. The surprise is that refining, often seen as a low-growth business, delivered the highest profit growth.

Cheap for growth: tankers and refiners offer deep value

Crude tanker International Seaways (INSW) trades at just 6.7x earnings and 5.6x EV/EBITDA while growing revenue 138.8% — a standout value. Product tanker Scorpio Tankers (STNG) is even cheaper at 7.0x earnings and 5.7x EV/EBITDA with revenue up 77.5%. In refining, Par Pacific (PARR) trades at 4.6x earnings and 3.7x EV/EBITDA, and PBF Energy (PBF) at 6.3x earnings and 3.8x EV/EBITDA. These are priced for a downturn, not for the profit surge they just delivered.

Expensive: royalty and uranium names are priced for perfection

Precious-metals royalty Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) trades at 31.6x earnings and 25.1x EV/EBITDA, while Franco-Nevada (FNV) is at 33.6x earnings and 23.4x EV/EBITDA. Uranium producer Cameco (CCJ) is the most extreme, trading at 149.9x earnings and 63.8x EV/EBITDA despite a 5.6% revenue decline and a 92.0% drop in net profit. These valuations leave no room for error.

Income: few high yields, but some notable payouts

Among companies with available dividend data, Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) offers a yield of 8.3% (DPS $0.70, price $8.40), and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) yields 5.7% (DPS $0.70, price $12.30). These are standout income plays in a sector where median yields are often below 3%.

Looking longer term, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Alamos Gold (AGI) stand out with 3-year revenue CAGRs of 27.5% and 30.1% respectively, both in gold mining. As we look ahead, watch for whether tanker and refining margins can sustain their extraordinary levels, and whether the valuation gap between cheap growers and expensive laggards finally closes.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)