MTS Bank: net profit for H1 doubled, but one-off gains drive the growth

25 августа МТС Банк раскрыл результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: чистая прибыль за полугодие выросла в 2,1 раза год к году, до 7 240 млн руб., при этом во втором квартале прибыль составила 4 733 млн руб. (+89,7% год к году). Рост обеспечен как операционными результатами, так и разовыми доходами от объединения бизнесов. Акции торгуются с P/E 1,9 и дивидендной доходностью 10,1%, что выглядит привлекательно, но требует осторожности из-за волатильности прибыли.

Key takeaways

— Чистая прибыль за полугодие выросла в 2,1 раза, до 7 240 млн руб., но во втором квартале темпы замедлились до +89,7%

— Чистый процентный доход за квартал вырос на 34,8% – до 14 398 млн руб., благодаря снижению процентных расходов

— Комиссионные доходы за квартал снизились на 0,7% – до 5 871 млн руб., при этом расходы выросли на 13,4%

— Разовые доходы от объединения бизнесов составили 923 млн руб. за полугодие

— Операционные расходы за полугодие выросли на 39,7% – до 14 352 млн руб., в основном из-за роста расходов на персонал

— Резервы под кредитные убытки выросли на 9,4% за полугодие – до 13 681 млн руб.

— Дивидендная доходность 10,1% соответствует нашей справедливой оценке, но модель портала предполагает потенциал роста +53%

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Net profit for H1 doubled to RUB 7,240 million, but Q2 growth slowed to +89.7%

In H1 2026, MTS Bank's net profit reached RUB 7,240 million versus RUB 3,467 million a year earlier. In Q2, profit amounted to RUB 4,733 million, up 89.7% year-on-year from RUB 2,495 million.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was RUB 18,210 million, implying a P/E of 1.9. ROE for the same period was 17.6%.

Net interest income for Q2 rose 34.8% to RUB 14,398 million, helped by lower interest expenses

In Q2 2026, net interest income reached RUB 14,398 million, up 34.8% year-on-year from RUB 10,681 million. Interest income declined 11.3% to RUB 31,056 million, but interest expenses fell even more – by 32.1% to RUB 16,288 million.

The main driver of lower expenses was client funds – retail (down 23.3% to RUB 8,830 million) and corporate (down 34.1% to RUB 4,597 million). This reflects lower funding costs amid monetary policy easing.

Fee income for Q2 fell 0.7% to RUB 5,871 million, while expenses rose 13.4%

In Q2, fee income was nearly flat at RUB 5,871 million versus RUB 5,913 million a year earlier. The decline was driven by lower acquiring and card operations income (from RUB 1,926 million to RUB 1,152 million) and agency fees from insurance sales (from RUB 1,474 million to RUB 903 million).

Meanwhile, fee expenses rose 13.4% to RUB 2,403 million, leading to an 8.6% decline in net fee income to RUB 3,468 million. The increase was due to higher settlement operations and IT costs.

One-off gains from business combinations reached RUB 923 million in H1

In H1 2026, other net income included gains from business combinations of RUB 923 million (in Q2 – also RUB 923 million). This is a one-off, non-operating gain that will not recur.

Excluding this gain, H1 net profit would have been approximately RUB 6,317 million, still above last year's RUB 3,467 million, but growth would have been lower – around 82%.

Operating expenses for H1 rose 39.7% to RUB 14,352 million, mainly due to higher staff costs

Operating expenses for H1 2026 reached RUB 14,352 million versus RUB 10,271 million a year earlier. The main driver was staff costs, which rose 54.4% to RUB 9,423 million (payroll increased from RUB 4,816 million to RUB 7,476 million).

The increase in staff costs may reflect both salary indexation and headcount expansion. In Q2, operating expenses rose 34.4% to RUB 7,560 million, slightly below Q1 growth.

Credit loss provisions rose 9.4% in H1 to RUB 13,681 million

Expected credit loss provisions for H1 2026 amounted to RUB 13,681 million versus RUB 12,501 million a year earlier. The bulk came from retail loan provisions: RUB 13,253 million (up 1% year-on-year).

In Q2, provisions rose 9.3% to RUB 6,247 million. The provisioning level remains high, reflecting ongoing risks in retail lending, especially in unsecured segments.

Dividend yield of 10.1% matches our fair estimate, but the portal model implies +53% upside

Over the last 12 months, MTS Bank paid dividends of RUB 96.12 per share, implying a yield of 10.1%. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 96.12, giving a forward yield of 10.1% – close to the fair level of 10.5%.

The payout ratio is 0.24 of profit, leaving significant room for dividend growth. According to the portal model, the share has +53% upside from the current price. The stock is included in the 'RU Banks & financials (potential)' strategy on the portal.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

MTS Bank delivered strong profit growth in H1 2026, but it was partly driven by one-off gains and lower funding costs. Operating expenses are growing faster than revenue, which needs to be monitored. The bank remains profitable, with ROE of 17.6% and a dividend yield of 10.1%, in line with fair value. According to the portal model, the shares are undervalued by 53%, making them attractive for long-term investors, but earnings volatility and asset quality warrant attention.