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Advantage Energy (AAV) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Turned profitable (Q3 2026)✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 3.9 vs avg 7.6)✗Margins compressing (49%→45%, Q3 2026)

Sector: Natural gas

Geography: Western Canada (Alberta, BC)

COMM_AAV

Price chart

10.87 CADDay -0.09%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
10.87 CAD · -0.09%
Market cap
1.2 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-4.0%
Δ EBITDA y/y
109.5%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
12.3x
3y avg: 39.7x
P/B (FY)
1.0x
P/E (ann.)
7.7x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
3.9x
3y avg: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
3.1x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
0.3%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+5.8%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
4.7 mln CAD

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-09-30Q3 2026 (3M)PARTIAL103.4
y/y -4.0%
63.8
y/y 416.8%
46.4
y/y 15.2%
110.2
y/y 109.5%
40.2
y/y —
69.9-43.42177.3
y/y -1.8%
1258.8
y/y 4.4%
12.9%139.2Report (PDF)
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK147.0
y/y 23.5%
28.8
y/y 118.6%
39.1
y/y -3.7%
67.9
y/y 26.3%
32.4
y/y -38.1%
75.3-90.72333.1
y/y 5.3%
1241.8
y/y 1.2%
10.5%592.9Yahoo Finance
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK150.4
y/y -2.4%
34.0
y/y —
43.1
y/y 3.0%
77.1
y/y 184.2%
21.5
y/y —
85.1-131.52319.4
y/y 12.4%
1238.3
y/y 10.8%
6.9%578.6Yahoo Finance
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK131.1
y/y —
20.5
y/y —
40.4
y/y —
60.9
y/y —
6.9
y/y —
53.4-80.22242.9
y/y 9.5%
1235.7
y/y 8.7%
3.1%567.4Yahoo Finance
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK107.7
y/y —
12.4
y/y —
40.2
y/y —
52.6
y/y —
-53.7
y/y —
58.1-51.92218.1
y/y —
1205.2
y/y —
-0.4%373.5Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK119.0
y/y —
13.2
y/y —
40.5
y/y —
53.7
y/y —
52.4
y/y —
57.9-48.72216.1
y/y —
1227.4
y/y —
17.9%507.4Yahoo Finance
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK154.2
y/y —
-14.7
y/y —
41.9
y/y —
27.1
y/y —
-20.2
y/y —
85.5-82.02062.7
y/y —
1118.1
y/y —
-7.2%466.6Yahoo Finance
2024-12-31FY 2024 (12M)OK400.4
y/y -2.1%
25.0
y/y -77.7%
145.2
y/y 31.6%
170.2
y/y -23.4%
15.8
y/y -79.0%
158.3-220.62047.5
y/y 18.0%
1136.8
y/y -3.2%
1.4%471.1Yahoo Finance
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK408.9
y/y —
111.8
y/y —
110.3
y/y —
222.2
y/y —
75.3
y/y —
239.6-202.81735.0
y/y —
1174.5
y/y —
—181.0Yahoo Finance

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-09-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)80
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)92
− Cash & equivalents32
Net debt139

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 0.4x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

01002003004005002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q22026 q3

Year-over-year change

-100%0%100%200%2023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q22026 q3

Cash flow

Cash flow (OCF + ICF; OCF − capex when ICF is unavailable) ($ mln)

-400-300-200-10001002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q22026 q3

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

02004006002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q22026 q3

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2022–2025 operating cash flow came to 4.96x of reported net profit.
year2022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.48x3.18x10.02x6.74x
accruals, % of assets-7.7%-9.5%-7.0%-9.7%
Last twelve months (to 2025-Q4): 2.82x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.4x
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodProduction
boe/d		Oil & liquids share
%		Realized price
CAD $/boe		Operating netback
CAD $/boe		Operating cost
CAD $/boe
Q3 2026-0986 964
+21.7%		——13.92
+2.5%		4.86
−14.4%
Q2 2026-0670 611
−9.6%		18
+20.0%		30.50
+31.7%		16.78
+10.2%		5.78
+20.2%
H1 2026-0675 964
−6.1%		16
+0.0%		29.30
+11.1%		18.08
+5.9%		5.65
+20.0%
Q4 2025-1279 823
+4.0%		15
+0.0%		24.76
+7.0%		15.99
+8.0%		5.93
+14.3%
FY 2025-1278 267
+10.4%		16
+14.3%		24.47
+16.9%		15.99
+28.5%		5.34
+12.4%
Q3 2025-0971 482——13.585.68
Q2 2025-0678 1081523.1615.234.81
H1 2025-0680 9251626.3817.084.71
Q4 2024-1276 7741523.1414.805.19
FY 2024-1270 9181420.9312.444.75

Company reports (PLR coverage review 2026-10-01), extracted with DeepSeek and every number checked against the document text: https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-02-12-Advantage-Announces-Operations-Update,-Conclusion-of-Strategic-Review-and-2025-Reserves; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-03-05-Advantage-Announces-Record-2025-Year-End-Results; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-07-30-Advantage-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-10-29-Advantage-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Results; https://www.advantageog.com/wp-content/uploads/2025-Consolidated-Management-Discussion-and-Analysis.pdf; https://www.advantageog.com/wp-content/uploads/Q2-2026-Report.pdf

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Proved reserves
689.20 mln boe (2P)
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
24.1 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
28.57 mln boe
2025

Production, mln boe

25.89202428.572025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mln boe (2P)
2025689.20

Production

YearProduction, mln boeper day, mln boe
202528.57
+10.4%		0.08
202425.890.07

Company reports: https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-02-12-Advantage-Announces-Operations-Update,-Conclusion-of-Strategic-Review-and-2025-Reserves; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-03-05-Advantage-Announces-Record-2025-Year-End-Results; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-07-30-Advantage-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results; https://advantageog.mediaroom.com/2026-10-29-Advantage-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Results; https://www.advantageog.com/wp-content/uploads/2025-Consolidated-Management-Discussion-and-Analysis.pdf; https://www.advantageog.com/wp-content/uploads/Q2-2026-Report.pdf

Key-commodity price — Henry Hub Gas

Current 3spot vs LTM +6%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: +5.8% ▲ +0.0 pp 1d

Main driver: Henry Hub Gas -3% vs LTM; revenue ×1.06 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 250→252; at 5.9× EV/EBITDA → +6%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Henry Hub Gas (rev)+65%3.243.333.11-3%-7%
WTI Crude Oil (rev)+15%88.9277.2177.01+15%-0%
Propane (NGL) (rev)+10%1.060.710.79+49%+10%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue532
LTM EBITDA250
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)282
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.063 (+6%)
= Spot revenue565
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×0.988 (-1%)
= 3-year-price revenue526
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs294
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs294
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA272
= 3-year-price EBITDA232
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)252
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/projected-EBITDA (75th pct)5.9x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA1 478
Net debt139
Target market cap = EV − net debt1 331
Current market cap1 259

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +5.8%

Life of mine: 24 yrs

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 FY409520-21.4%222227-2.0%
2024 FY400397+0.9%170203-16.1%
2025 FY505450+12.2%234211+11.0%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth +26% vs -2% the year before — a +28.1 pp move. 3-year CAGR -12%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -45% · 2024 -2% · 2025 +26%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 5.0x · target 75th pct (3y) 10.1x · LTM avg 9.9x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Peer comparison

Group: Natural gas. Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDA
Equinorglobal111.72.6x
SandRidge Energyglobal0.53.6x
Expand Energyglobal20.43.7x
Gulfport Energyglobal2.94.5x
Birchcliff Energyglobal1.35.6x
Peyto Explorationglobal3.86.5x
Tourmaline Oilglobal18.27.1x
Kimbell Royalty Partnersglobal1.57.9x
Black Stone Mineralsglobal3.210.1x
Group median5.6x
Group average5.8x
This companyglobal1.23.9x

Group median 5.6x; this company 3.9x — a 30% discount.

Group average 5.8x; against the average this company is at a 33% discount.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +63% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 18.7x, Russia 4.0x, South Africa 5.7x, Kazakhstan 6.1x, India 19.3x, Indonesia 5.2x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-11-15; the company's own is live.

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer (checked: Yahoo Finance (ex-div)).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Advantage Energy (AAV) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Advantage Energy (AAV)'s P/E ratio?
Advantage Energy (AAV) trades at a P/E of 12.3x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Advantage Energy (AAV)'s EV/EBITDA?
Advantage Energy (AAV) trades at 3.9x EV/EBITDA.
What is Advantage Energy (AAV)'s P/B ratio?
Advantage Energy (AAV) trades at a P/B of 1.0x.
What is Advantage Energy (AAV)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Advantage Energy (AAV)'s ROE is 12.9%.
What is Advantage Energy (AAV)'s market capitalization?
Advantage Energy (AAV)'s market cap is 1.2 bn USD.

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