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Holmen USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Low leverage (1.0x EBITDA)✗Profit falling (-13% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Margins compressing (21%→19%, Q2 2026)

Sector: Forestry & paper

COMM_HOLM

Price chart

323.2 SEKDay -0.74%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
323.2 SEK · -0.74%
Market cap
3.5 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
3.3%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-8.7%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
12.3x
3y avg: 14.0x
P/B (FY)
0.6x
P/E (ann.)
16.2x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
8.8x
3y avg: 8.9x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
9.0x

Cash return

Dividend yield
2.9%
FCF yield (LTM)
-14.2%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-23.3%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
90.3 mln SEK

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK596.5
y/y 3.3%
73.2
y/y -12.5%
38.1
y/y -0.5%
111.3
y/y -8.7%
54.0
y/y -13.4%
40.0-24.58326.4
y/y -4.0%
5564.9
y/y -5.8%
3.8%≈ 486.4Yahoo Finance
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK592.5
y/y 4.8%
89.5
y/y -4.1%
37.9
y/y 11.2%
127.4
y/y -0.0%
66.9
y/y -6.0%
115.3-26.38647.2
y/y 3.4%
5741.8
y/y 2.2%
4.6%≈ 486.4Yahoo Finance
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK552.4
y/y —
78.2
y/y —
38.5
y/y —
116.7
y/y —
61.9
y/y —
134.4-61.88780.1
y/y 18.8%
6015.9
y/y 15.7%
4.9%486.4Yahoo Finance
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK577.3
y/y —
83.6
y/y —
38.3
y/y —
121.9
y/y —
62.4
y/y —
128.9-37.28673.6
y/y —
5908.6
y/y —
4.3%≈ 205.4Yahoo Finance
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK565.5
y/y —
93.4
y/y —
34.1
y/y —
127.4
y/y —
71.2
y/y —
57.4-65.88365.2
y/y —
5616.7
y/y —
5.3%≈ 205.4Yahoo Finance
2024-12-31FY 2024 (12M)OK2147.5
y/y -0.5%
342.8
y/y -22.6%
131.0
y/y 1.7%
473.8
y/y -17.1%
270.0
y/y -22.9%
313.0-194.97393.4
y/y -6.9%
5201.3
y/y -8.2%
5.0%205.4Yahoo Finance
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK2157.8
y/y —
442.9
y/y —
128.7
y/y —
571.7
y/y —
350.0
y/y —
549.5-156.57938.9
y/y —
5668.7
y/y —
—69.5Yahoo Finance

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-12-31

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)149
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)380
− Cash & equivalents42
Net debt486

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.1x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

05001 0001 5002 0002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-20%-10%0%2023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-10001002003004002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

01002003004005002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodOwn forest deliveries
'000 m³sub		Hydro and wind power deliveries
GWh		Wood products deliveries
'000 m³		Board and paper deliveries
'000 tonnes		Own forests deliveries
'000 m3sub		Paperboard and paper deliveries
'000 tonnes
Q2 2026-06548
−16.2%		366
−4.9%		345
+5.8%		365
+4.9%		——
H1 2026-061 162
−2.3%		908
+2.7%		674
+0.4%		698
−1.3%		——
FY 2025-12—1 634
−5.4%		1 294
−4.0%		—2 694
+1.9%		1 391
−2.3%
Q2 2025-06654385326348——
H1 2025-061 189884671707——
FY 2024-12—1 7281 348—2 6431 424

Company reports (PLR coverage review 2026-10-01), extracted with DeepSeek and every number checked against the document text: https://vp165.alertir.com/afw/files/press/holmen/202603061638-1.pdf; https://vp165.alertir.com/afw/files/press/holmen/202608199658-1.pdf

Key-commodity price — Lumber

Current 538spot vs LTM -11%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: -23.3% ▲ +0.9 pp 1d

Main driver: Lumber -11% vs LTM; revenue ×1.04 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 480→438; at 10.1× EV/EBITDA → -23%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Lumber (rev)+20%537.50601.51604.75-11%+1%
Northern bleached softwood kraft (pulp benchmark) (rev)+15%1 302.131 252.961 340.80+4%+7%
Electricity Spot (rev)+10%117.4077.9262.56+51%-20%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue2 319
LTM EBITDA480
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1 838
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.035 (+4%)
= Spot revenue2 401
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×0.992 (-1%)
= 3-year-price revenue2 300
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs1 912
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs1 912
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA489
= 3-year-price EBITDA388
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)438
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/projected-EBITDA (75th pct)10.1x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA4 440
Net debt486
Target market cap = EV − net debt3 954
Current market cap5 156

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -23.3%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 FY2 1581 983+8.8%584430+35.7%
2024 FY2 1472 212-2.9%486575-15.4%
2025 FY2 2552 257-0.1%487529-7.9%

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 10.4x · target 75th pct (3y) 10.1x · LTM avg 12.6x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-03-319.5 SEKEx-dividend: 9.5 SEK per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-04-0112 SEKEx-dividend: 12 SEK per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-04-1711.5 SEKEx-dividend: 11.5 SEK per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-03-2916 SEKEx-dividend: 16 SEK per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-03-3111.5 SEKEx-dividend: 11.5 SEK per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Holmen — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Holmen's P/E ratio?
Holmen trades at a P/E of 12.3x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Holmen's EV/EBITDA?
Holmen trades at 8.8x EV/EBITDA.
What is Holmen's P/B ratio?
Holmen trades at a P/B of 0.6x.
What is Holmen's dividend yield?
Holmen's trailing 12-month dividend yield is 2.9%.
What is Holmen's return on equity (ROE)?
Holmen's ROE is 3.8%.
What is Holmen's market capitalization?
Holmen's market cap is 3.5 bn USD.

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