
Nornickel is the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper, mining and smelting in the Norilsk area and on the Kola Peninsula.
Sector: Mining
RU_GMKN
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB USD | Operating profitB USD | D&AB USD | EBITDAB USD | Net profitB USD | Operating CFB USD | Capex + M&AB USD | AssetsB USD | EquityB USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | OK | 8.3 y/y 27.6% | 3.1 y/y 92.2% | 0.8 y/y 16.4% | 3.8 y/y 70.0% | 2.0 y/y 136.3% | 3.3 | -1.4 | 33.5 y/y 7.8% | 13.1 y/y 31.4% | 32.7% | 11.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 6.7 y/y -5.7% | 2.2 y/y 0.7% | 0.7 y/y 6.1% | 2.9 y/y 1.9% | 1.6 y/y 53.0% | 3.3 | -1.4 | 31.4 y/y 35.6% | 11.4 y/y 65.4% | 22.1% | 11.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 6.5 y/y 15.1% | 1.6 y/y 10.2% | 0.7 y/y 20.5% | 2.3 y/y 13.1% | 0.8 y/y 1.4% | 2.8 | -1.1 | 31.0 y/y 21.8% | 10.0 y/y 35.0% | 20.1% | 10.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | OK | 7.2 y/y -19.0% | 2.2 y/y -35.0% | 0.7 y/y -7.9% | 2.9 y/y -30.2% | 1.0 y/y -51.8% | 3.2 | -1.5 | 23.2 y/y -2.5% | 6.9 y/y 6.7% | 26.0% | 8.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 5.7 y/y -21.6% | 1.4 y/y -48.2% | 0.5 y/y -5.8% | 2.0 y/y -40.9% | 0.8 y/y -22.5% | 1.7 | -1.0 | 25.5 y/y 7.8% | 7.4 y/y 11.2% | 24.2% | 10.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 8.6 y/y — | 3.3 y/y — | 0.7 y/y — | 4.0 y/y — | 2.0 y/y — | 4.1 | -1.9 | 23.8 y/y — | 6.4 y/y — | 49.2% | 11.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 7.2 y/y — | 2.8 y/y — | 0.6 y/y — | 3.4 y/y — | 1.1 y/y — | 3.5 | -1.5 | 23.6 y/y — | 6.6 y/y — | — | 9.3 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 3 945 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 9 387 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 2 888 |
| Net debt | 10 444 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.5x
Conversion to USD. Balance sheet: rate effective on 2026-06-30, fixing date 2026-06-30. Flows: sampled average at each calculation period's bounds and monthly 15ths. Latest source row: 2026-01-01 — 2026-06-30. Source: Bank of Russia R01235. Rates
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.33x | 0.98x | 2.40x | 2.63x | 2.58x |
| accruals, % of assets | -9.6% | 0.5% | -17.7% | -11.9% | -12.7% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Nickel & PGM
| Year | Reserves, kt |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 9 602 |
| Year | Production, kt |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 198.50 −3.2% |
| 2024 | 205 −1.9% |
| 2023 | 209 |
Nornickel consolidated production results FY2025 (nornickel.com, 28 Jan 2026): nickel 198.5 kt (198,521 t, -3% YoY, within 196-204 kt guidance), palladium 2.725 Moz. FY2024 nickel 205 kt. Reserves: Polar Division proved+probable ore 1,481 Mt at 0.65% Ni = 9,602 kt contained nickel at 1 Jan 2026 (JORC, SRK; Annual Report 2025 pp. 64-65), in situ before recovery.
Potential discount −20% (factor 0.80)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 14 486spot vs LTM +18%
The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.
USD/RUB: spot 82 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.04 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): +3% · spot +15% · 3-yr -9%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 1.18 trn RUB |
| EBITDA | 527.0 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 648.1 bln RUB |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Multiplier — spot | ×1.03 (+3%) |
| = Spot revenue | 1.20 trn RUB |
| Multiplier — 3-yr prices | ×0.96 (-4%) |
| = 3-yr-price revenue | 1.13 trn RUB |
| 3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%) | |
| Cost multiplier | ×1.05 (+5%) |
| = Cash costs | 680.5 bln RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 524.4 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 448.6 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 486.5 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 486.5 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 5.6x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 2.73 trn RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | 911.2 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 1.82 trn RUB |
| Current market cap | 1.77 trn RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +3%
Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.
| Commodity | Revenue share | Spot | LTM avg | $ vs LTM | RUB vs LTM (FX) | RUB 3-yr (FX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 34% | 14 486.46 | 12 225.59 | +18% | +23% | -4% |
| Palladium | 24% | 1 085.00 | 1 455.07 | -25% | -22% | -13% |
| Nickel | 22% | 15 952.25 | 16 464.97 | -3% | +1% | +8% |
| Platinum | 6% | 1 643.90 | 1 798.50 | -9% | -5% | -21% |
Current 5.1x · 3-year 75th pct 6.6x
Group: Mining. Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuzhuralzoloto Group | Russia | 2.0 | 3.7x |
| Polyus | Russia | 13.1 | 3.8x |
| Seligdar | Russia | 0.5 | 5.3x |
| Alrosa | Russia | 1.9 | 5.7x |
| Rusolovo | Russia | 0.1 | 17.7x |
| Group median | 5.3x | ||
| Group average | 7.2x | ||
| This company | Russia | 21.4 | 4.9x |
Group median 5.3x; this company 4.9x — a 7% discount.
Group average 7.2x; against the average this company is at a 33% discount. The average sits 38% above the median: Rusolovo (17.7x) skews the group.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +11% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.7x, Russia 3.9x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 4.6x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 4.9x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-21; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: -85%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 278 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 44% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.1x) | 300 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 1.85 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 1.85 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -10.3 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 10.5% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 116 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 1.6% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 17.62 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 1.85 RUB/sh · 1.6%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 9.15 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 26.89 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 10.21 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 11.81 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 22.81 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 13.84 ₽ | |
| 2017 | 6.70 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q4 | 2026-10-09 | 1.85 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-12-25 | 9.15 ₽ |
| 2022 q2 | 2022-06-10 | 11.66 ₽ |
| 2022 q1 | 2022-01-12 | 15.23 ₽ |
| 2021 q2 | 2021-05-28 | 10.21 ₽ |
| 2020 q4 | 2020-12-22 | 6.23 ₽ |
| 2020 q2 | 2020-05-21 | 5.57 ₽ |
| 2019 q4 | 2019-12-25 | 14.88 ₽ |
| 2019 q2 | 2019-06-19 | 7.93 ₽ |
| 2018 q3 | 2018-09-27 | 13.84 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 48% buy — balanced5d: 46% buy — balanced20d: 49% buy — balanced
Iceberg levels last session: 0 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 114.7 (filled ×7.0 of displayed, 15 refills).
No characteristic robot clips detected last session.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10 | 48% | 0/1 | 0/0 | 20,673 |
| 20.10 | 48% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 11,126 |
| 19.10 | 49% | 1/1 | 0/0 | 27,026 |
| 16.10 | 50% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 16,100 |
| 15.10 | 35% | 0/0 | 0/1 | 19,774 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 14 (3 positive, 6 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 25 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 01.10.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На внеочередном собрании акционеров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» было решено выплатить дивиденды в размере 1,85 руб. на акцию по результатам полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 12 октября 2026 года. |
| 26.08.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» рекомендовал выплатить дивиденды в размере 1,85 руб. на акцию по результатам полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, назначена на 12 октября 2026 года. |
| 27.07.26 | Material event | ★ ▼ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг |
| 21.08.26 | Buyback | Информация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD 20 августа 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,8 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости, а также выплачено накопленный купонный доход. Оплата произведена в рублях по курсу доллара США на дату приобретения. |
| 08.06.26 | Buyback | Информация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD 05 июня 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,998 млн. облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Оплата производилась в рублях по курсу доллара США, установленному на дату приобретения. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Disclosed in the top-10 of 9 of 17 funds, ≈2,5 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 4, entered top-10 — 2.
| Fund | Manager | Weight | ≈Position | Δ weight m/m | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций роста | ДОХОДЪ | 8.84% | 17 млн ₽ | +1.14 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035 | Первая | 5.21% | 7 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынка | Брокеркредитсервис | 4.92% | 17 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржи | Т-Капитал | 4.59% | 677 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| EQMX ВИМ - Индекс МосБиржи | ВИМ Инвестиции | 4.58% | 606 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акций | Первая | 4.57% | 941 млн ₽ | +0.51 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестиции (new) | Первая | 4.08% | 6 млн ₽ | +4.08 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| SCFT Технологии будущего (new) | Доверительная | 3.89% | 0 млн ₽ | +3.89 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рублях | Т-Капитал | 1.49% | 271 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.
Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=564
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Nornickel (GMKN) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| НорНикБ1P9 | float | float | 100.80 | — | 152K | — | put 09.2025 |
| НорНикБ1P2 | float | float | 99.97 | — | 5.6M | — | put 10.2025 |
| НорНикЗ26Д | — | 2.8% | 99.19 | +0.70% | 81K | 52.3M | 10.2026 |
| НорНик1P11 | 19.2% | 7% | 99.22 | -0.98% | 3.8M | 269.7M | put 11.2026 |
| НорНик1P13 | 4.6% | 7.75% | 100.90 | +0.00% | 17K | 159K | put 01.2027 |
| НорНик1P15 | 9.3% | 7.5% | 99.20 | +0.00% | 430K | 292K | put 05.2027 |
| НорНик1P16 | 10.7% | 7% | 96.54 | -0.94% | 12K | 544K | put 12.2027 |
| НорНикБ1P8 | 8.9% | 7.75% | 98.92 | +1.13% | 984K | 155.9M | put 04.2028 |
| НорНик БО9 | float | float | 100.11 | -0.07% | 15K | 98.4M | 05.2028 |
| НорНик Б10 | float | float | 100.19 | +0.03% | 52K | 847K | put 10.2028 |
| НорНикБ1P7 | float | float | 100.12 | -0.01% | 1.9M | 93.8M | 02.2029 |
| НорНик1P12 | 7.2% | 8% | 102.50 | +0.00% | 8K | 166K | put 05.2029 |
| НорНик1P14 | 9.3% | 6.4% | 93.75 | +0.74% | 912K | 56.8M | 08.2029 |
| НорНик1P10 | 7.1% | 7.5% | 102.20 | +0.00% | 8K | 80K | 05.2030 |
| НорНик1P17 | 8.9% | 7.6% | 97.05 | -0.77% | 2.2M | 23.7M | 05.2030 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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