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Nornickel (GMKN) USD

Nornickel is the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper, mining and smelting in the Norilsk area and on the Kola Peninsula.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+13% y/y, H1 2026)✓Profit growing (+108% y/y, H1 2026)✓Margins improving (35%→46%, H1 2026)✗Pricier than own history (EV/EBITDA 127.1 vs avg 93.9)

Sector: Mining

RU_GMKN

Price chart

130.28 RUBDay 0.00%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
130.28 RUB · 0.00%
Market cap
27.9 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
12.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
49.9%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
7.2x
3y avg: 10.3x
P/B (FY)
2.8x
P/E (ann.)
6.5x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
—
3y avg: 93.9x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
113.9x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
—

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+8.4%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
2.8 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK8.9
y/y 12.6%
3.3
y/y 69.5%
0.8
y/y 2.7%
4.1
y/y 49.9%
2.1
y/y 108.4%
3.6-107.136.5
y/y 6.8%
14.3
y/y 30.2%
32.1%911.2Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK7.6
y/y -20.7%
2.5
y/y -15.0%
0.8
y/y -11.0%
3.3
y/y -14.1%
1.7
y/y 28.5%
3.7-113.634.5
y/y 4.3%
12.5
y/y 27.3%
23.7%904.4Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK7.9
y/y 10.9%
1.9
y/y 6.3%
0.8
y/y 16.2%
2.7
y/y 9.0%
1.0
y/y -2.3%
3.4-97.234.2
y/y 11.4%
11.0
y/y 23.6%
19.8%11.5Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK9.5
y/y -14.4%
2.9
y/y -31.4%
0.9
y/y -2.6%
3.8
y/y -26.3%
1.4
y/y -47.8%
4.2-143.733.0
y/y 10.6%
9.8
y/y 21.0%
25.8%12.1Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK7.1
y/y -7.9%
1.8
y/y -39.1%
0.7
y/y 10.7%
2.5
y/y -30.5%
1.1
y/y -8.9%
2.1-87.630.7
y/y 6.2%
8.9
y/y 9.5%
24.9%12.1Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK11.2
y/y —
4.3
y/y —
0.9
y/y —
5.2
y/y —
2.6
y/y —
5.3-171.029.9
y/y —
8.1
y/y —
46.4%1023.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK7.8
y/y —
3.0
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
3.6
y/y —
1.2
y/y —
3.7-113.328.9
y/y —
8.1
y/y —
—11.4Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)4 341
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)10 330
− Cash & equivalents3 178
Net debt11 494

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

02 5005 0007 50010 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-50%-25%0%25%50%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

02 0004 0006 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0250 000500 000750 0001 000 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 2.40x of reported net profit; after capex, 1.28x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.33x0.98x2.40x2.63x2.58x
accruals, % of assets-9.6%0.5%-17.7%-11.9%-12.7%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.88x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.1x · capex 2.6x of depreciation · dividends 70% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNickel
тыс. т		Copper
тыс. т		Palladium
koz		Platinum
koz
H1 2026-06852031 199281
FY 2025-12198.50
−3.2%		425.30
−1.8%		2 725
−1.3%		667
+0.0%
FY 2024-122054332 762667

Норникель, итоги производственной деятельности за 2025 г. (nornickel.ru, 28 янв. 2026): никель 198,5 тыс. т, медь 425,3 тыс. т, палладий 2 725 koz, платина 667 koz; 2024 г. — данные предыдущего релиза (Ni 205 / Cu 433 / Pd 2 762 / Pt 667). | H1 2026 (03.09.2026): никель 85 тыс т (-2% г/г), медь 203 (-5%), палладий 1 199 koz (-14%), платина 281 koz (-16%) — операц. релиз Норникеля 1П2026, подтв. Interfax/Fomag/brokerkf.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Nickel & PGM

Annual production
198.50 kt
2025

Production, kt

20920232052024198.502025

Production

YearProduction, kt
2025198.50
−3.2%
2024205
−1.9%
2023209

Nornickel consolidated production results FY2025 (nornickel.com, 28 Jan 2026): nickel 198.5 kt (198,521 t, -3% YoY, within 196-204 kt guidance), palladium 2.725 Moz. FY2024 nickel 205 kt. Metal-content reserves not disclosed in comparable form.

Key-commodity price — Palladium

Current 1 405spot vs LTM -3%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 86 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.10 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +8% · spot +33% · 3-yr -16%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue1.18 trn RUB
EBITDA527.0 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)648.1 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.13 (+13%)
= Spot revenue1.33 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×0.98 (-2%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.15 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs680.5 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA647.2 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA467.4 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2557.3 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))557.3 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)5.5x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA3.07 trn RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)911.2 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt2.16 trn RUB
Current market cap1.99 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +8%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Palladium53%1 405.001 455.07-3%+6%-8%
Nickel22%16 811.1316 464.97+2%+12%+15%
Copper20%14 686.7312 225.59+20%+32%-1%
Platinum5%1 826.001 798.50+2%+12%-19%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth -7% vs -12% the year before — a +4.6 pp move. 3-year CAGR +2%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +30% · 2024 -12% · 2025 -7%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -88%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)278 bn RUB
Payout ratio78%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.1x)300 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)915.33 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share1.85 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
= Fair dividend yield12.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price130 ₽
Forecast dividend yield1.4%
Fair price (dividend-based)15.42 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
20261.85 ₽
2023915.33 ₽
20222689.39 ₽
20211021.22 ₽
20201180.55 ₽
20192280.54 ₽
20181384.00 ₽
2017670.30 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2026 q42026-10-091.85 ₽
2023 q42023-12-25915.33 ₽
2022 q22022-06-101166.22 ₽
2022 q12022-01-121523.17 ₽
2021 q22021-05-281021.22 ₽
2020 q42020-12-22623.35 ₽
2020 q22020-05-21557.20 ₽
2019 q42019-12-251488.02 ₽
2019 q22019-06-19792.52 ₽
2018 q32018-09-271384.00 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 49% buy — balanced5d: 51% buy — balanced20d: 48% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 0 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 128.88 (filled ×3.6 of displayed, 93 refills).
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 0 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 51 lots ×280 appearances across 69 price levels.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
04.0949%0/10/127,164
03.0951%0/01/024,819
02.0955%0/01/129,019
01.0944%1/04/433,220
31.0854%5/12/248,847

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 13 (9 positive, 2 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 24 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

26.08.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» рекомендовал выплатить дивиденды в размере 1,85 руб. на акцию по результатам полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, назначена на 12 октября 2026 года.
27.07.26Material event★ ▼ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
30.06.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» 30 июня 2026 года было решено не распределять прибыль и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 2025 года. Председателю Совета директоров будет выплачиваться вознаграждение в размере 500 тыс. долларов США в год, а членам Ревизионной комиссии — 1,8 млн. руб. в год. Также одобрены назначения аудиторских организаций для проверки отчетности за 2026 год.
21.08.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD
20 августа 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,8 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости, а также выплачено накопленный купонный доход. Оплата произведена в рублях по курсу доллара США на дату приобретения.
08.06.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD
05 июня 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,998 млн. облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Оплата производилась в рублях по курсу доллара США, установленному на дату приобретения.
24.03.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD
23 марта 2026 года Эмитентом, ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель», приобретены 2,77 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости. Дополнительно был выплачен накопленный купонный доход владельцам облигаций.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 7 of 17 funds, ≈2,1 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: left top-10 — 3.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ7.70%14 млн ₽—31.07.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Первая4.80%7 млн ₽—31.07.2026
BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынкаБрокеркредитсервис4.59%15 млн ₽—31.07.2026
EQMX ВИМ - Индекс МосБиржиВИМ Инвестиции4.15%504 млн ₽—31.07.2026
TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржиТ-Капитал4.11%534 млн ₽—31.07.2026
SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акцийПервая4.06%768 млн ₽—31.07.2026
TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рубляхТ-Капитал1.44%266 млн ₽—31.07.2026
TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акцииТ-Капиталleft top-10 (was 5.91%)31.07.2026
SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестицииПерваяleft top-10 (was 4.07%)31.07.2026
SCFT Технологии будущегоДоверительнаяleft top-10 (was 3.99%)31.07.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=564

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Nornickel (GMKN) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/E ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/E of 7.2x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s EV/EBITDA?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at 127.1x EV/EBITDA.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/B ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/B of 2.8x.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s ROE is 32.1%.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s market capitalization?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s market cap is 27.9 bn USD.

Bonds by this issuer

IssueYTMCouponPrice, %Volume, ₽Maturity
НорНикБ1P9floatfloat100.8152Kput 09.2025
НорНикБ1P2floatfloat100.05.6Mput 10.2025
НорНик1P128.3%8%100.2191Kput 08.2026
НорНикЗ26Д—2.8%100.751.5M10.2026
НорНик1P117.4%7%99.822.7Mput 11.2026
НорНик1P13—7.75%105.98Kput 01.2027
НорНик1P154.9%7.5%101.7176Kput 05.2027
НорНик1P167.1%7%100.01.6Mput 12.2027
НорНикБ1P86.6%7.75%102.094.8Mput 04.2028
НорНик БО9floatfloat100.19.4M05.2028
НорНик Б10floatfloat100.8184Kput 10.2028
НорНикБ1P7floatfloat100.220.9M02.2029
НорНик1P147.0%6.4%99.1140.4M08.2029
НорНик1P104.2%7.5%111.78K05.2030
НорНик1P179.2%7.6%96.013.4M05.2030

YTM and turnover from MOEX; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.

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