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Nornickel (GMKN) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Profit growing (+15%)✗Revenue declining (-7%)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Mining

RU_GMKN

Price chart

108.42 RUBDay -3.11%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
108.42 RUB · -3.11%
Market cap
23.2 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-20.2%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-14.5%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
8.4x
3y avg: 10.3x
P/B (FY)
1.9x
P/E (ann.)
6.7x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
—
3y avg: 149.5x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
141.9x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
—

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-37.8%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
2.9 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK7.6
y/y -20.7%
2.5
y/y -15.0%
0.8
y/y -11.0%
3.3
y/y -14.1%
1.7
y/y 28.5%
3.7-113.634.5
y/y 4.3%
12.5
y/y 27.3%
23.7%904.4Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK7.9
y/y 10.9%
1.9
y/y 6.3%
0.8
y/y 16.2%
2.7
y/y 9.0%
1.0
y/y -2.3%
3.4-97.234.2
y/y 11.4%
11.0
y/y 23.6%
19.8%977.7Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK9.5
y/y -14.4%
2.9
y/y -31.4%
0.9
y/y -2.6%
3.8
y/y -26.3%
1.4
y/y -47.8%
4.2-143.733.0
y/y 10.6%
9.8
y/y 21.0%
25.8%1068.3Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK7.1
y/y -7.9%
1.8
y/y -39.1%
0.7
y/y 10.7%
2.5
y/y -30.5%
1.1
y/y -8.9%
2.1-87.630.7
y/y 6.2%
8.9
y/y 9.5%
24.9%1032.9Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK11.2
y/y —
4.3
y/y —
0.9
y/y —
5.2
y/y —
2.6
y/y —
5.3-171.029.9
y/y —
8.1
y/y —
46.4%1023.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK7.8
y/y —
3.0
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
3.6
y/y —
1.2
y/y —
3.7-113.328.9
y/y —
8.1
y/y —
—942.9Report (PDF)

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

02 5005 0007 50010 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Year-over-year change

-40%-20%0%20%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

02 0004 0006 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0250 000500 000750 0001 000 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNickel
тыс. т		Copper
тыс. т		Palladium
koz		Platinum
koz
FY 2025-12198.50
−3.2%		425.30
−1.8%		2 725
−1.3%		667
+0.0%
FY 2024-122054332 762667

Норникель, итоги производственной деятельности за 2025 г. (nornickel.ru, 28 янв. 2026): никель 198,5 тыс. т, медь 425,3 тыс. т, палладий 2 725 koz, платина 667 koz; 2024 г. — данные предыдущего релиза (Ni 205 / Cu 433 / Pd 2 762 / Pt 667).

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Nickel & PGM

Annual production
198.50 kt
2025

Production, kt

20920232052024198.502025

Production

YearProduction, kt
2025198.50
−3.2%
2024205
−1.9%
2023209

Nornickel consolidated production results FY2025 (nornickel.com, 28 Jan 2026): nickel 198.5 kt (198,521 t, -3% YoY, within 196-204 kt guidance), palladium 2.725 Moz. FY2024 nickel 205 kt. Metal-content reserves not disclosed in comparable form.

Key-commodity price — Palladium

Current 1 274spot vs LTM -13%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the current EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

Upside (conservative): -38% · spot -21% · 3-yr -55%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.10 trn RUB
EBITDA429.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)675.0 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×0.98 (-2%)
= Spot revenue1.08 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×0.88 (-12%)
= 3-yr-price revenue975.7 bln RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs708.7 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA368.1 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA267.0 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2317.5 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))317.5 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (current)6.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA2.14 trn RUB
Net debt904.4 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt1.24 trn RUB
Current market cap1.99 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -38%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Palladium53%1 274.501 460.88-13%-13%-17%
Nickel22%17 399.1316 499.52+5%+6%+6%
Copper20%14 263.9312 244.66+16%+17%-12%
Platinum5%1 637.801 808.14-9%-9%-28%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth -7% vs -12% the year before — a +4.6 pp move. 3-year CAGR +2%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +30% · 2024 -12% · 2025 -7%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~2.6 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)198 bn RUB
Payout ratio78%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.1x)300 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)915.33 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.2%
= Fair dividend yield12.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price110 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)0.000 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
2023915.33 ₽
20222689.39 ₽
20211021.22 ₽
20201180.55 ₽
20192280.54 ₽
20181384.00 ₽
2017670.30 ₽
2016674.39 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2023 q42023-12-25915.33 ₽
2022 q22022-06-101166.22 ₽
2022 q12022-01-121523.17 ₽
2021 q22021-05-281021.22 ₽
2020 q42020-12-22623.35 ₽
2020 q22020-05-21557.20 ₽
2019 q42019-12-251488.02 ₽
2019 q22019-06-19792.52 ₽
2018 q32018-09-271384.00 ₽
2017 q42017-10-17224.20 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 53% buy — balanced5d: 52% buy — balanced20d: 51% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 1 bid / 2 ask; largest — ask 109.5 (filled ×10.7 of displayed, 73 refills).
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 7 bid / 8 ask; largest — ask 277 lots ×819 appearances across 160 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×595, ask ×818.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
23.0753%1/27/827,751
22.0751%1/08/931,297
21.0753%0/221/1745,526
20.0755%2/610/1246,350
17.0748%1/217/1848,086

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Corporate events

30.06.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» 30 июня 2026 года было решено не распределять прибыль и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 2025 года. Председателю Совета директоров будет выплачиваться вознаграждение в размере 500 тыс. долларов США в год, а членам Ревизионной комиссии — 1,8 млн. руб. в год. Также одобрены назначения аудиторских организаций для проверки отчетности за 2026 год.
25.05.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
На заседании совета директоров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» 25 мая 2026 года было принято решение не выплачивать дивиденды по обыкновенным акциям по результатам 2025 года. Кворум для заседания составил 13 членов совета директоров.
27.04.26Material event★ ▼ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
08.06.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD
05 июня 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,998 млн. облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Оплата производилась в рублях по курсу доллара США, установленному на дату приобретения.
24.03.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD
23 марта 2026 года Эмитентом, ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель», приобретены 2,77 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости. Дополнительно был выплачен накопленный купонный доход владельцам облигаций.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 8 of 17 funds, ≈1,8 млрд ₽ combined.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ6.94%11 млн ₽—29.05.2026
TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акцииТ-Капитал5.38%27 млн ₽—29.05.2026
BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынкаБрокеркредитсервис4.53%13 млн ₽—29.05.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Первая4.48%7 млн ₽—29.05.2026
EQMX Индекс МосБиржиВИМ Инвестиции3.78%445 млн ₽—29.05.2026
SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акцийПервая3.73%633 млн ₽—29.05.2026
TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржиТ-Капитал3.71%447 млн ₽—29.05.2026
TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рубляхТ-Капитал1.42%246 млн ₽—29.05.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 1 across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 10 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=564

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Nornickel (GMKN) — from primary filings.

GMKN (MMC Norilsk Nickel) is a Russian mining and metallurgical company that primarily extracts and refines nickel, palladium, copper, and platinum from deposits in the Taimyr and Kola Peninsulas.

Frequently asked questions

What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/E ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/E of 8.4x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s EV/EBITDA?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at 154.1x EV/EBITDA.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/B ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/B of 1.9x.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s ROE is 28.0%.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s market capitalization?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s market cap is 23.2 bn USD.